DATE=3/7/2000
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
TITLE=BLAIR CHINA (L-ONLY)
NUMBER=2-259939
BYLINE=JIM RANDLE
DATELINE=PENTAGON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: The Admiral who commands all U-S military
forces in the Pacific says China lacks the military
means to successfully invade Taiwan. Military experts
say Beijing's forces could rain missiles down on the
rebellious island, but Admiral Dennis Blair says they
probably won't do that any time soon. V-O-A's Jim
Randle reports from the Pentagon.
TEXT: U-S Navy Admiral Dennis Blair says China has
placed hundreds of medium range ballistic missiles
along the coast where they could reach targets on
Taiwan. He says Beijing is adding about 50 missiles
each year to the conventionally-armed forces facing
Taiwan.
Some Chinese officials have recently said Beijing
might take military action against Taiwan if people on
the island declare independence or make it clear they
have no intention of ever reuniting with the
mainland.
Admiral Blair has just returned from extensive talks
in China, and he says leaders there see military force
as `one of the tools in their kit.'
But he says, at the moment, his intelligence experts
are not seeing the kind of preparations that would
likely come before a major attack on the island.
/// Blair act ///
The deployment patterns of China, and those of
Taiwan and those of the United states, are
fairly normal during this time. There are some
small variations, but none of us is preparing
for major military moves, there, and that is
good. At the end of the day, the only way we are
going to solve this thing is by peaceful
resolution, the diplomatic way, not the military
way.
/// end act ///
Admiral Blair says China has a massive army, but lacks
the special ships and boats needed to transport a
major force across the more than 100 kilometers of
open ocean that separates Taiwan from the mainland.
Admiral Blair says the serious transportation problem
and - Taiwan's robust defensive forces -- make it
unlikely that Chinese invaders could take and hold
Taiwan for any length of time.
The Admiral says a major attack on Taiwan would cause
a lot of deaths and injuries, and wreck the island's
very successful economy.
But he says global reaction to such an attack would
severely damage China's economy as well.
/// Blair act ///
China's top priorities have to do with economic
and technological reform and taking care of its
people. And it (the leadership in Beijing)
knows that conflict would result in destroying
all of the progress it's making in joining the
world economy.
/// end act //
Admiral Blair refused to speak about discussions in
Washington about Taiwan's request for advanced weapons
including Patriot missiles and Aegis-class warships.
Beijing strongly opposes such arms sales to what it
regards as a rebellious province that must be brought
under central government control.
When the Communists won the Chinese Civil war in 1949,
the defeated Nationalist forces took shelter on
Taiwan.
Tensions have been growing between China and Taiwan as
the date approaches for elections on the island(March,
18th). China has said many times that a formal
declaration of independence by Taiwan would spark
military action by China. During the last election
four years ago, China tried to intimidate
independence-minded voters by firing missiles near the
island's ports. (Signed)
NEB/PT
07-Mar-2000 18:04 PM EDT (07-Mar-2000 2304 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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