DATE=3/6/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUNDER
TITLE=CHINA / TAIWAN / MILITARY
NUMBER=5-45584
BYLINE=JIM RANDLE
DATELINE=PENTAGON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Top U-S intelligence officials say there
is "high potential" for another military flare-up
between China and Taiwan as Taiwan's elections
(on March 18th) draw closer. Military experts
take the tensions seriously, because China has
millions of troops, thousands of combat aircraft,
and hundreds of ballistic missiles. Analysts say
Chinese forces probably could not mount an
effective invasion of the island, but they could
batter and perhaps intimidate the people who live
there. V-O-A's Jim Randle reports from the
Pentagon.
TEXT: The director of the Defense Intelligence
Agency, Tom Wilson, says Taiwan is a "major
potential flashpoint" in Asia. Vice Admiral
Wilson told the Senate Armed Services Committee
recently [last month] there is an "increased
risk" of military incidents, as the opposing air
and naval forces improve their readiness to fight
or try to intimidate each other. But he says
China probably will not risk a large-scale attack
on Taiwan in the near future unless Taiwan
declares itself independent of China.
Beijing has regarded Taiwan as a rebellious
province that must be brought under its rule,
ever since the Communists won a civil war in 1949
and drove the defeated Nationalists into exile on
the island.
During Taiwan's last election four years ago,
China tried to intimidate residents into voting
against independence-minded candidates. Chinese
forces "tested" missiles that demonstrated they
could easily reach Taiwan's vital ports.
Washington responded by sending two aircraft
carriers and escort ships to nearby waters.
If China were to attack, military experts say
Beijing now has hundreds of ballistic missiles
that could reach the island.
The director of the Central Intelligence Agency,
George Tenet, says China is moving still more
missiles into place.
/// TENET ACT ///
China has been increasing the size and
sophistication of its forces arrayed along
the Strait, most notably by deploying
short-range ballistic missiles.
/// END ACT ///
But Brookings Institution scholar and strategic
expert Robert Suittinger says these
conventionally-armed missiles are likely to have
more psychological impact than real military
significance. And the former National Security
Council official says such an attack could
backfire.
/// SUITTINGER ACT ///
The missiles are fine until you start
firing them, and people realize that they
do damage, but they don't cripple your
economy, and they don't cripple your
communications and so forth. And China's
missiles are capable, but they aren't pin-
point accurate. Once you start firing the
missiles, you have to deal with the
psychological counter-effect of the
intimidation factor, which is the fist
shaking at the sky saying, "We will never
surrender."
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Suittinger says officials in Beijing think
people on Taiwan have gotten "soft" [less
militant] as they have grown more affluent, and
that they can be intimidated into making major
concessions if China launches a few missiles.
But the former intelligence analyst says China is
seriously underestimating the leadership and the
people on Taiwan. He also says some officials on
the island underestimate Beijing's determination
to take control of Taiwan and reunite China.
Mr. Suittinger and many other China watchers
think missile strikes are China's only remotely
realistic military option for the next few years.
Greg May is a China scholar at the Nixon Center,
a non-partisan institute that studies key U-S
national-security issues, including policy toward
China. He says China's two-and-one-half-million
active-duty troops and 35-hundred combat aircraft
seem intimidating, until you realize that Beijing
lacks the ships and boats needed to transport a
major military force across more than 100
kilometers of ocean to reach Taiwan, and that
many of the planes in China's air force are older
than their pilots.
/// MAY ACT ///
They are mainly the equivalent of the MIG-
21 and the MIG-19. I mean, these are
planes that were flying in the 1950's. And
it is a very similar story with the
[Chinese] Navy. They have 70-odd
submarines, but not many of those are
really functioning.
/// END ACT ///
Many analysts say China's lack of specialized
boats to land troops on hostile beaches would
slow the invasion force and make it vulnerable to
Taiwan's powerful, modern air force. One
Pentagon official described the likely result as
a "million man swim."
Some military experts think China might force
Taiwan to submit to rule from Beijing by
blockading Taiwanese ports, stopping shipments of
food and fuel to the island and strangling the
island's robust economy. But Mr. May says China
would need better-quality submarines and warships
and more of them to sustain a blockade for a long
period of time. China has some modern Russian-
built submarines, and is getting a few advanced
Russian-built destroyers. Pentagon spokesman Ken
Bacon says this new hardware strengthens
Beijing's navy, but not enough to change the
balance of power.
Still, D-I-A Chief Tom Wilson and other
intelligence leaders say China is steadily
improving and modernizing its forces in ways that
seem likely to cause growing concern in Taiwan in
the next few years.
So Taiwan's leaders are asking Washington to sell
them better defenses against ballistic missiles,
including an advanced version of the Patriot
missile and (Aegis-class) destroyers with
sophisticated radars, computers and missiles.
The proposed arms sales are strongly opposed by
Beijing and are controversial in the U-S
Congress. But members of the House and Senate
say every threat made by Beijing makes Congress
more likely to approve the sale of these advanced
weapons. (Signed)
NEB/JR/WTW
06-Mar-2000 13:28 PM EDT (06-Mar-2000 1828 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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