DATE=3/2/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=CHINA, TAIWAN AND THE U-S
NUMBER=5-45561
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: During a recent visit to Beijing, Admiral
Dennis Blair, the commander of U-S forces in the
Pacific, got a blunt warning. "The reunification
cause of China is irreversible," said China's Defense
Minister, General Chi Hoatian, adding China will use
force if necessary. That threat came on top of a
state policy paper saying China would resort to
military action if the Taiwanese do not negotiate a
solution quickly. U-S officials were startled, and
pressure is building in Congress to deliver more
sophisticated military equipment to Taiwan. V-O-A's
Ed Warner reports the views of two veteran analysts on
the hardening Chinese position.
TEXT: Just when William Kirby started relaxing about
China and Taiwan, out came the Beijing policy paper
threatening war if the Taiwanese fail to negotiate.
Mr. Kirby, Director of the Asian Center at Harvard
University, said he had to revise his thinking -- and
not for the better.
He says the Chinese warning has to be taken seriously:
/// Kirby Act ///
It is a fundamental policy statement based
apparently on a policy review that indicates the
longstanding but also future determination to
make Taiwan part of the Peoples Republic by
whatever means, although ideally by peaceful
means. But it adds a new element in terms of
the conditions under which China might go to war
to recover this island that it claims belongs to
it.
/// End Act ///
Ross Munro, director of Asian studies at the Center
for Security Studies in Washington, also takes the
document seriously. He says it is beginning to
confirm the thesis of the book he co-authored, "The
Coming Conflict with China."
He notes there is an overwhelming consensus among the
Chinese leadership that one way or another, Taiwan
must be recovered. The only difference is over
tactics: how fast to bring this about and with what
risk.
In general, says Mr. Munro, military build-ups are
broad-based, allowing for various contingencies. That
is not the case with China:
/// Munro Act ///
The Chinese military build-up for the past three
years has been amazingly tightly focused on
preparing for military action against Taiwan.
The Chinese strategic elite -- senior military
officers and the strategic thinkers -- are all
saying that China must conquer and control
Taiwan soon if it is to achieve its longer term
strategic goal of dominating East Asia, like all
the great Chinese dynasties did.
/// End Act ///
Mr. Munro says it is troubling that the Chinese
leadership seems to think if it attacks Taiwan, the
United States will not intervene. That, he
emphasizes, is a dangerous and mistaken assumption.
Curiously, he notes the ardor for Taiwan is not shared
by the Chinese people:
/// Munro Act ///
There is no empirical evidence that the Chinese
people see this as an urgent issue, or any
evidence that they feel very intensely that
reunification must take place in the near
future. In fact, both man-in-the-street
interviews and a bit of public opinion polling
in China point in the opposite direction -- that
the ordinary man in the street does not care
very much about this issue and almost has a
live-and-let-live attitude.
/// End Act ///
Mr. Munro says the Beijing leadership would have to
work hard to whip up public enthusiasm for war with
Taiwan.
Harvard's William Kirby says the Taiwanese are doing
nothing to arouse Chinese fears in their election
campaign, which has been understated and far from
provocative:
/// Kirby Act ///
All three presidential candidates have been
remarkably restrained over the course of this
campaign in talking about how they might seek to
improve relations with the P-R-C (Peoples
Republic of China), improve cross-straits
commercial and human ties. There are a variety
of steps that can be taken to improve relations
short of straightforward political negotiations,
and all three candidate have shown themselves to
be open to that.
/// End Act ///
Mr. Kirby says he is disappointed Beijing has not
responded to this moderate behavior. Why not try
enticements, instead of threats? he asks. There are
various steps China could take, such as allowing
Taiwan to participate in international organizations.
Beijing, however, is demanding unification before
normalization:
/// Kirby Act ///
What could Taiwan gain from being part of the P-
R-C? This is something so far the P-R-C
leadership has proved incapable of uttering.
And until they do so, they will find that
threats only lead to greater estrangement. And
the greater the sense of estrangement, the
greater the likelihood that Taiwan will never
become part of the Peoples Republic of China.
/// End Act ///
What is needed, says Mr. Kirby, is a generous act of
statesmanship that will encourage closer ties by
reassuring Taiwan. A dynamic economy of 22-million
people, Taiwan needs to be shown it will not lose out
and become just another submissive province of an
expansionist China. (Signed)
NEB/EW/LTD/JP
02-Mar-2000 11:37 AM EDT (02-Mar-2000 1637 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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