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PRC unlikely to up threats ahead of poll

Published: March 3, 2000 The China Post

While it remains to be seen whether Beijing will respond positively to Washington's latest appeal to exercise restraint in addressing the cross-strait issue, it seems unlikely the communist government will take any hostile military action in the run up to the March 18 presidential election.

During his two days of talks in Beijing this week, the commander of U.S. Pacific forces, Admiral Dennis Blair, personally expressed Washington's "grave concern" over the PRC's recent threat to Taiwan and urged its leaders to show "patience and moderation."

In response, PRC Defense Minister Chi Haotian reiterated that Beijing would never renounce the option of using force against Taiwan. But he stopped short of repeating Beijing's new threat that Taiwan will risk attack if it indefinitely refuses to enter into talks on reunification.

This certainly did not indicate that Beijing was retracting or softening the invasion threat. The mainland leaders believe that without the backing of force, it will never be possible for them to get Taiwan to the table for unification talks.

That Beijing did not restate the threat of attack in the presence of Blair was probably due to a pair of considerations. One is that by publishing the position paper on Taiwan last month, Beijing has already achieved the aim of warning the island's three main candidates and voters not to reject demands for a merger with the mainland in favor of permanent separation.

What the PRC may now want to do is just quietly wait for the outcome of the coming presidential election and the arrival of May 20 when the new president assumes office and makes his formal inauguration speech on Taiwan's future. Only by then when it has a clearer picture of the new leader's position on the mainland will Beijing decide its next move on Taiwan -- to attempt rapprochement with Taipei, or follow the opposite course of action.

Therefore, it is unlikely that Beijing will follow up its renewed threat with intimidating military exercises before May 20 or ahead of the election, as it did on the eve of Taiwan's last presidential poll four years ago.

The other reason that Beijing is unlikely to take further hostile moves against Taiwan at this point has much to do with the strong international response its new threat of force has sparked, particularly from the United States.

The Pentagon quickly responded with a stern warning that any action by Beijing to follow through with its threatened attack on Taiwan would have "incalculable consequences." And President Bill Clinton has since repeated on numerous occasions the longstanding U.S. policy that cross-strait differences must be resolved peacefully.

The response from the U.S. Congress was similarly strong. Many congressional leaders have avowed to vote against a bill on permanent favorable trade status for mainland China, legislation which is essential to support the PRC's admission into the World Trade Organization. And many angry senators have threatened to pass a bill that would enhance military relations with Taiwan.

While it is unlikely that Beijing will step up its threat of attack against Taiwan for the time being, this will not guarantee that the National People's Congress, which is to convene at the weekend for a two-week annual session, will not do so.

Should the communist parliament act to adopt a resolution endorsing Beijing's new policy of using force to press for unification, which looks likely, it will be tantamount to legitimizing the saber-rattling policy. If so, it will strengthen Beijing's hand in implementing its high-handed Taiwan policy.