DATE=2/29/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=CHINA CONGRESS - US EXPECTATIONS
NUMBER=5-45535
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: The public meetings of the upcoming session of
China's legislature are likely to be dominated by
speeches about the country's economic progress and
problems. As V-O-A's Stephanie Mann reports, American
observers also expect the behind-the-scenes debates to
deal with the issues of corruption, social disorder
and Taiwan.
TEXT: China's National People's Congress meets
annually, usually in March. About three-thousand
delegates from all over China gather in Beijing to
hear reports about the country's performance and
approve new laws and plans for the coming year.
Generally, the delegates endorse whatever priorities
Communist Party leaders have decided are important to
assure the nation's economic prosperity and maintain
social stability.
However, in recent years, the debates at the National
People's Congress (N-P-C) have become more open. And
Asia specialist Douglas Paal says the votes have
reflected this new trend of diverse opinion.
/// PAAL ACT ///
The N-P-C is more interesting every year,
because it has been more open every year. The
debate is freer. It's an important index of
change in China. Having split votes -- you
don't have unanimous votes any more or rubber
stamps. You have real debates. The outcome may
be coaxed by the government in advance, but
there's plenty of room for dissent to be
expressed.
/// END ACT ///
/// OPT /// In the last two years, for example, as
many as 20 to 40 percent of the delegates did not vote
in favor of the reports by the country's chief
prosecutor and the Supreme Court. /// END OPT ///
Douglas Paal is president of the Washington research
group, Asia Pacific Policy Center. He says the agenda
for the National People's Congress usually emerges
from meetings that Chinese leaders hold every August
at the seaside resort of Beidaihe.
/// PAAL ACT ///
This past year the Beidaihe meeting had two very
important agenda items. One was the slow growth
of the Chinese economy and the continued need to
dismantle state enterprises, and with that
rising unemployment and fear of social
instability. The other big issue was the
management of the Taiwan crisis.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Paal says Taiwan is sure to be discussed behind
the scenes when the legislature is in session. The
Congress convenes on March 5th and concludes a few days
before Taiwan's presidential election on March 18th.
China has warned Taiwan that it might use force if
Taiwan's next administration tries to delay reunifying
with the mainland.
Mr. Paal says the dominant issue at the N-P-C will be
China's economy and how to proceed with the reform of
inefficient state-owned industries and the financial
sector.
/// PAAL ACT ///
The major issue will be whether to stick with
reform of the state-owned enterprises, the
banks, and whether to accelerate or slow down
the pace of reform. That's going to be a big
issue because there's a lot of unemployment in
the northeast. There's a lot of social dissent.
/// END ACT ///
The issues of economic reform and rising unemployment
are directly related to the issue of social stability
-- something that greatly concerns the Chinese
leadership. Analysts say the ongoing crackdown on
members of the Falun Gong spiritual movement reflects
that concern. Many Chinese, frustrated by economic
dislocations and increasing crime, have turned to the
exercise program and spiritual guidance offered by the
Falun Gong movement.
Analysts say the National People's Congress is likely
to look for ways to manage economic reform and prevent
rapid increases in joblessness -- in order to avoid
more social discontent.
/// OPT /// China's National Bureau of Statistics
recently said it expects the country's economic growth
rate this year will match last year's rate of seven-
point-one percent. But it also said there could be
difficulties because of structural problems in the
economy. /// END OPT ///
According to an Asia specialist at the National
Defense University in Washington, Ronald Montaperto,
China has said a new priority is to reform the non-
state sector of the economy. And he expects to see
some indication of that at the National People's
Congress.
In addition, Professor Montaperto says there is
pressure on the N-P-C to do something about the
growing problem of corruption.
/// MONTAPERTO ACT ///
I would expect to see the N-P-C pass something -
- if not actual legislation, then maybe some
kind of resolution or something -- that would
encourage the leadership in its effort to
continue to deal with corruption and all that.
/// END ACT ///
Other analysts disagree, and say some delegates to the
Congress may feel uncomfortable dealing openly with
the corruption issue, because some of them may be
implicated.
In January, the government revealed that corrupt
officials had stolen 15-billion dollars from the state
last year. The most publicized recent scandal
involves a huge smuggling and tax evasion operation at
the port of Xiamen. (Signed)
NEB/SMN/JP
29-Feb-2000 11:07 AM EDT (29-Feb-2000 1607 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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