Policy Perspective |
PRC Military Buildup Threatens Democracy on TaiwanThe Clinton-Gore Abandonment of America's Long-Standing Taiwan PolicyJanuary 31, 2000"China's general policy for settling the Taiwan issue remains 'peaceful reunification; one country, two systems.' However, we will never commit ourselves to renouncing the use of force." Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the People's Liberation Army, Lieutenant General Xiong Guangkai, January 27, 2000 There is a growing threat to peace across the Taiwan Strait: the massive, ongoing military buildup that the People's Republic of China is openly directing against democratic Taiwan. Three times in the last four years, in 1995, 1996, and 1999, the PRC has attempted blatant military coercion against Taiwan. Analysts across the political spectrum anticipate that the PRC could launch new military moves against Taiwan, in an attempt to intimidate participants in Taiwan's March 2000 democratic presidential elections. A Pentagon report released in February 1999 indicates that without U.S. assistance in defensive weaponry, the PRC could gain military advantages over Taiwan in key areas after 2005-just six years from now. Background: A Long-Standing U.S. Policy Against PRC Use of ForceFor almost fifty years, the United States has maintained its commitment to Taiwan's defensive military capabilities in order to deter PRC attack and keep peace in the Taiwan Strait-first by virtue of a U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty with Taipei, and since 1979 pursuant to the Taiwan Relations Act. The Taiwan Relations Act, the legislative embodiment of America's long-standing Taiwan policy, declares that "any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means.[is] a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States," and stipulates that the United States will "make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capacity."Section 3(b) of the Taiwan Relations Act further states "The President and the Congress shall determine the nature and quantity of such defense articles and services based solely on their judgment of the needs of Taiwan..." U.S. presidents since Dwight Eisenhower have successfully deterred PRC attacks on Taiwan for half a century. An essential part of this policy, from Eisenhower to Bush, has been selling Taiwan the weapons it needs to defend itself against the PRC. As recently as 1992, President George Bush approved the sale of 150 F-16 fighter aircraft to Taiwan, despite Beijing's vehement objections. However, the Clinton-Gore administration refuses to sell Taiwan the advanced weapons it needs to deter a new crisis. The Clinton-Gore administration also refuses to permit the kind of high-level military contacts with democratic Taiwan that it has recently initiated with the PRC's People's Liberation Army-even though such contacts with Taiwan would be helpful in deterring a crisis, and would be essential should one occur. In the absence of presidential leadership, Congress must act now to strengthen communications between U.S. and Taiwan military forces, rebuild deterrence, and head off a new crisis in the Taiwan Strait. Growing PRC Military Threats to TaiwanAlthough it has a number of targets, including India, the Philippines, Japan, and other rivals in the Asia-Pacific region, the ongoing substantial increase in offensive forces by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is perhaps most directly threatening to Taiwan. The PRC is placing the greatest emphasis on new offensive missile forces, but is also rapidly building a more capable offense in both air and naval forces. With a significant increase in the PLA's regional offensive capability, the PRC's Communist rulers will be more tempted to use military force against Taiwan. The major elements of the PRC's increase in offensive military capabilities are:
PRC Information Warfare Threats Against Taiwan: During 1999, there have been an increasing number of incidents of cross-Strait computer attacks by the PRC. The PLA intends to use information attacks combined with massive missile attacks to sow chaos in Taiwan. The PLA is developing the means to attack Taiwan's information sources: these include long-range lasers that can disable satellites, and new air-launched missiles like the Russian Kh-31, designed to attack radar for the Patriotand Aegis anti-missile systems. The PLA is also investing heavily in computer network attack capabilities designed to disable or manipulate key military and civilian computer networks in Taiwan. New PLA Combat Aircraft from Russia for Air Campaign Against Taiwan: During 1999 there was also a sharp increase in PLA aircraft flying over the Taiwan Strait in an effort to intimidate Taiwan. After massive missile strikes against Taiwan's Air Force, the PLA hopes to secure control of the air with its new, more capable combat aircraft. In June the PRC finalized a contract to purchase 50 to 70 Sukhoi Su-30 attack-fighters. These will be the PLA Air Force's first long-range all-weather attack aircraft capable of delivering precision-guided bombs and missiles. The Su-30 is based on the Su-27 Flanker, of which about 200 are now being co-produced in the PRC. The Su-27 and the Su-30 could in the future be armed with the Russian AA-12 self-guided medium-range anti-aircraft missile, which is as capable as the U.S. AIM-120 AMRAAM. PLA Air Force fighter and strike aircraft will be coordinated by new airborne radar and control (AWACS) aircraft being built in Russia. New PRC Naval Forces to Blockade the Taiwan Strait: Massive missile strikes against Taiwan's Navy will also allow more modern PLA Navy ships now entering service to better undertake blockade maneuvers around Taiwan. Late last year the PLA Navy received the last of four new Russian Kilo conventionally powered attack submarines. The PLA is developing its new Song-class conventional submarine and its new Type-093 nuclear-powered attack submarine. All of these submarines will eventually be armed with new land-attack cruise missiles. Within days the PLA Navy will acquire the first of two new Russian Sovremenniy missile destroyers armed with the supersonic SS-N-22 Sunburn anti-ship missile-a weapon specifically designed to destroy U.S. warships. The PRC Navy may buy two to three more. Recent reports indicate that Russia is trying to sell the PRC advanced Akula nuclear-powered attack submarines and technology for new, large aircraft carriers. The Taiwan Security Enhancement Act: Keeping America's Commitment to Taiwan's Self-DefenseToday, even more than in 1979, Taiwan's security is critical to America's interests. Taiwan is now America's seventh largest trading partner, and buys far more from the U.S. than does the PRC. The sea-lanes surrounding Taiwan are vital to the economic health of Asia and to the sustained growth of U.S. exports to Asia. Perhaps most important of all, a democratic Taiwan stands as a living example to all of the people of China that they too can build a prosperous, peaceful democracy. The Clinton-Gore administration has repeatedly rejected Taiwan's requests for essential defensive weapons-including Aegis naval-based air-defense radar. The Clinton-Gore administration's refusal to sell Taiwan the defensive weapons it requires to defend against the PLA is creating a growing military imbalance, violating both the letter and the spirit of the Taiwan Relations Act, and ironically increasing the risk that the PRC will mistake U.S. intentions and attack Taiwan. The Taiwan Security Enhancement Act now under consideration in the Senate and the House seeks to fill this presidential leadership vacuum by maintaining the long-standing U.S. commitment to provide Taiwan with the defensive military strength it needs to deter the PRC. The Act calls for:
Increase transparency of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act states, "The President and the Congress shall determine the nature and quantity of such defense articles and services based solely upon their judgment of the needs of Taiwan," but successive administrations have not consistently consulted the Congress. The TSEA therefore calls for annual reporting to the Congress on annual arms sales to Taiwan, which will go far to fulfill this requirement of the Taiwan Relations Act. Conclusion The long-standing U.S. policy toward Taiwan has helped maintain peace in the Strait for half a century. The Clinton-Gore administration's dangerous weakening of the policy requires Congressional action. Both sound judgment and the Taiwan Relations Act itself counsel promoting Taiwan's democracy with defensive weapons and opening up military exchanges between the U.S. and Taiwan to the same extent as existing contacts with the PRC. The Clinton-Gore administration's backsliding on long-standing U.S.-Taiwan policy is concededly designed to placate Beijing at Taiwan's expense. Ironically, however, it is only serving to embolden Beijing's Communist rulers, whose increasingly threatening rhetoric risks a catastrophic rupture in U.S. relations with the PRC. The U.S. must neither allow Beijing to establish near-term military supremacy over Taiwan nor encourage Beijing to believe that the United States will acquiesce in PRC military coercion of Taiwan. Congress must act swiftly to make clear that the United States will continue its longstanding commitment to maintaining the military balance across the Taiwan Strait, and take the steps necessary to enhance America's security relationship with democratic Taiwan. # # #PRC Missiles Revealed in The October 1, 1999 Parade Commemorating the 50th Anniversary of Communist Rule in China
DF-15 SRBM RANGE: 360 miles MISSION: TARGET TAIWAN
DF-21 MRBM Range: 1,100 miles Mission: Target Taiwan; Prevent U.S. support for Taiwan
DF-31 ICBM Range: 5,500 miles Mission: Target U.S.; Prevent U.S. Support for Taiwan |
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