Washington, Oct. 25 (CNA) Mainland China is developing "one of the most daunting conventional theater missile challenges in the world... which could have significant implications for regional stability", according to a Pentagon report completed in September.
The report, titled "The PLA's Strategic War Fighting in the 21st Century: Space and Theater Missile Development," deals mainly with the implications of mainland China's theater missile development as a major focus of the PLA's modernization.
The 40-page report contains a lot of discussion on the threat to Taiwan posed by the mainland's missile buildup and possible countermeasures.
"In the most likely scenario for their use," the report says, "the PLA's (People's Liberation Army's) growing arsenal of highly accurate and lethal theater missiles, and a preemptive doctrine could give Beijing a decisive edge in any future conflict with Taiwan."
The danger of this is that the Beijing leadership, having acquired an overwhelming offensive advantage, might be more inclined to use force even if Taiwan does not declare de jure independence. This in turn could lead Taiwan to seek stronger deterrents, including renewed efforts to develop a nuclear device, says the report.
The report also points out that, as Taiwan's national security community debates the need for a stronger deterrent, there may be increased domestic pressure for tactically offensive counter force operations, to include preemptive strikes.
In the section which details operational concepts associated with a possible PLA theater missile campaign, the report says that mainland China would seek to quickly strip Taiwan of its war fighting capability.
The PLA would try to achieve air superiority, sea superiority and information dominance by large-scale, preemptive missile strikes carried out in conjunction with air strikes and special operations.
The report quoted PLA writings as saying that half of its theater missile inventory would be used in the initial strike phase.
It is believed that the PLA currently has deployed 150 to 200 short-range ballistic missiles opposite Taiwan and Western sources believe the number would increase to 650 over the next several years.
Conscious of likely US intervention, the PLA has indicated a willingness to use missiles against US targets, including key bases in Japan and aircraft carriers operating in the Western Pacific, the report says.
For Taiwan to counter a large-scale theater missile threat, the report says, the only effective way is "through jointness and innovative war fighting concepts" associated with the Revolution in Military Affairs.
The report says that ballistic missiles are emerging as the backbone of conventional PLA theater operations and mainland China is concentrating on three particular systems, namely the short-range DF-15 (M-9), DF-11 (M-11) and the medium-range DF-21.
Currently the PLA is working on terminal guidance and missile defense countermeasures to improve the accuracy and lethality of these systems.
Also, the PLA's first-generation land attack cruise missiles could be operational early in the next century. These missiles, probably air-launched, will be more accurate, more difficult to defend and less costly to make than ballistic missiles. (By Jay Chen)
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
