DATE=10/8/1999
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
TITLE=CHINA / ECON (L-ONLY)
NUMBER=2-254808
BYLINE=ELAINE JOHANSON
DATELINE=NEW YORK
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: A new report predicts China's economy is set
to recover in the year two-thousand -- with China on
track to grow by eight to 10 percent in the second
half of this year. The Conference Board, a private
business research group, says part of that recovery is
due to a financial rebound throughout Asia. V-O-A
correspondent Elaine Johanson has more from New York:
TEXT: The Conference Board says consumer spending in
China has picked up recently, and -- if the past two
months are any guide -- exports are rebounding
substantially. The Board adds signs of recovery in
Japan bode well for China, as well as the rest of the
region.
The Conference Board notes it is almost fashionable to
be pessimistic about China's future. But it says
everything seems to point in the opposite direction,
and the Chinese government deserves some credit.
While the present slowdown in China is a result of a
structural policy re-alignment in Beijing, the Board
says it was that shift that reversed China's trade
deficit, restored foreign-exchange reserves and
balanced the government budget.
The analysis goes on to say that if China stays on its
current solid growth path, it will overtake the
Philippines and Indonesia in per-capita income early
in the next decade.
At the same time, Conference Board economists say
China's future role as a regional power remains cloudy
because -- like Japan -- it is too reliant on exports
for economic growth. The economists question whether
China, as the major market economy in Asia, can
sustain its trade surpluses as a matter of policy.
(Signed)
NEB/NY/EJ/LSF/WTW
08-Oct-1999 12:35 PM EDT (08-Oct-1999 1635 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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