DATE=8/4/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=CHINA--THREAT-NO THREAT
NUMBER=5-44003
BYLINE=GIL BUTLER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: China's announcement this week that it
successfully tested a new ground-to-ground missile has
added to the debate over whether the world's most
populous country represents a military threat. Many
analysts believe China has a long way to go in weapons
development before it is a threat. Some argue that
economic -- not military -- development is the
priority for Beijing's leaders. Correspondent Gil
Butler in Washington has more.
TEXT: In the most recent New York Times magazine,
former Beijing Correspondent Patrick Tyler says one-
point-three-billion Chinese have no interest in
threatening America or in kicking U-S forces out of
Asia, or in becoming an imperial power to dominate the
region. Mr. Tyler says China wants a long period of
peace and stability to develop its economy, and is not
likely to be a threat.
/// FIRST TYLER ACT ///
It is still a large and backward military power
and it's not likely to be a threat to the United
States in the foreseeable future. And its core
interests re-enforce that status. That it is
more focused on its economy than on any kind of
military buildup.
/// END ACT ///
An Asia scholar with the Council on Foreign Relations
- Robert Manning - believes that if China is not a
threat, it does represent a strategic challenge as it
emerges as a major world power. Mr. Manning agrees
that China's leaders have development not military
growth as a priority, but he worries about potential
regional disputes - such as that over the status of
Taiwan.
/// MANNING ACT ///
He (Mr. Tyler) is right that China is so big
And its problems are so large that any
leadership is going to be very much absorbed
with its internal problems but at the same time,
there are certain issues-certainly Taiwan is a
flash point -- that could draw the U-S and China
into a direct military conflict. Then the big
question would be, are they prepared to escalate
over Taiwan and they certainly do have a nuclear
capability should they choose to use it. So I
don't think you can sort of dismiss this thing
and say all they care about is how many McDonald
stands they have over the next 20 years.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Manning says China's nuclear program may be the
decisive factor in determining how such weapons are
deployed world-wide in the future. He notes that
while the United States, Russia, Britain and France
have reduced nuclear weapons, China is catching up.
He says there must be some relationship between the
floor - how low the United States, Russia, and the
others will reduce their nuclear forces - and the
ceiling, how high Chinese forces will go.
Patrick Tyler responds by noting the huge disparity in
nuclear forces.
/// SECOND TYLER ACT ///
Look at the gap between the ceiling and the
floor. Even if we achieved our wildest dreams
on arms control which at the moment would be to
bring down our arsenal to about three thousand
weapons, you are still talking about an order of
magnitude difference between us and the Chinese.
It's going to be a long, long time before we
come close enough to where we have to start
having to think about those kind of
vulnerabilities.
/// END ACT ///
The debate over Sino-American relations is often
couched starkly in terms of whether or not China is a
threat. Bates Gill, a China scholar with the
Brookings Institution, thinks deeper analysis is
needed.
/// GILL ACT ///
I think the general line which Mr. Tyler has
taken, which tends to question the China threat
thesis, I think is, on balance, a good approach.
I think we do need a more intense analysis of
the real capabilities of the Chinese military.
I think there is a tendency in many analyses to
have knee-jerk or simplistic, black and white
understanding of real Chinese capabilities.
/// END ACT ///
There is a broad consensus that Taiwan is perhaps the
most sensitive potential flash-point between China and
the United States. China's reaction to Taiwan
president Lee Teng Hui's apparent rejection of the
one-China policy has included strong words as well as
more military aircraft sorties over the Taiwan Strait.
In 1996, China fired missiles near Taiwan and the
United States sent two aircraft carriers through the
strait as tensions reached a very high point.
Patrick Tyler acknowledges that China and the United
States could stumble into a conflict over the island
if Taiwan declared independence. But he calls that an
unlikely situation. He says the real issue is
accommodating China's rise as a power in Asia.
NEB/MGB/TVM/gm
04-Aug-1999 15:38 PM EDT (04-Aug-1999 1938 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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