DATE=07/17/99
TYPE=ON THE LINE
NUMBER=1-00757
TITLE=WHAT DOES CHINA WANT?
EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037
CONTENT=
THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE
ANNCR: ON THE LINE -- A DISCUSSION OF UNITED STATES
POLICIES AND CONTEMPORARY ISSUES.
THIS WEEK, "WHAT DOES CHINA WANT?" HERE IS YOUR
HOST, ROBERT REILLY.
HOST: HELLO AND WELCOME TO ON THE LINE.
DESPITE CHINA'S RELATIVELY LIBERAL ECONOMIC
POLICIES, CHINESE PRESIDENT JIANG ZEMIN RECENTLY
SAID SOCIALISM WOULD DEFEAT CAPITALISM AND CHINA
WOULD CONTINUE TO BE GUIDED BY MARXISM. SINCE
IT SIGNED THE INTERNATIONAL COVENANT ON CIVIL
AND POLITICAL RIGHTS, CHINA HAS INCREASED
REPRESSION OF POLITICAL DISSIDENTS. WHILE IT
NEEDS AMERICAN SUPPORT IN ITS BID TO ENTER THE
WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, CHINA HAS BEEN
UNWILLING TO PATCH UP RELATIONS WITH THE U.S.
SINCE THE ACCIDENTAL NATO BOMBING OF THE CHINESE
EMBASSY IN BELGRADE. THIS SEEMINGLY
CONTRADICTORY BEHAVIOR HAS SOME OBSERVERS
WONDERING WHAT IT IS THAT CHINA REALLY WANTS.
JOINING ME TODAY TO DISCUSS CHINA AND U.S.
POLICY ARE THREE EXPERTS. JAMES LILLEY IS A
FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO CHINA AND DIRECTOR OF
ASIAN STUDIES AT THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE
INSTITUTE. DAVID LAMPTON IS DIRECTOR OF CHINA
STUDIES AT THE JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL FOR ADVANCED
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES. AND STEPHEN YATES IS
CHINA POLICY ANALYST AT THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION.
GENTLEMEN, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.
THE PRONOUNCEMENT BY PRESIDENT JIANG ZEMIN ON
THE ESSENTIAL NATURE OF MARXISM TO THE CHINESE
REGIME WAS MADE AT A PARTY ANNIVERSARY EVENT,
AND SOME ANALYSTS SAID IT WENT BEYOND THE SORT
OF RITUAL INVOCATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED AT SUCH
AFFAIRS. DO YOU GIVE THAT ANY KIND OF
SIGNIFICANCE?
LILLEY: NOT VERY MUCH. I THINK BETWEEN JULY 1ST AND THE
BEIDAIHE ANNUAL CONFERENCE IN AUGUST, THERE IS
SORT OF AN IDEOLOGICAL BELT-TIGHTENING BY THE
CHINESE. AND YOU FIND THIS IN A LOT OF THEIR
PRONOUNCEMENTS. THEY HAD A VERY UNFORTUNATE,
VIOLENT STATEMENT DENOUNCING THE UNITED STATES
ON THE 22ND OF JUNE IN THE PEOPLE'S DAILY, WHICH
IS ONE OF THE WORST THINGS I'VE SEEN SINCE THE
KOREAN WAR. THE PROPAGANDISTS TOOK OVER AND
THEY WRITE THIS VERY, VERY HARSH STUFF. BUT
AGAIN, I WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE CHINESE... YOU
KNOW KHRUSHCHEV SAID HE'D BURY US, AND HIS SON
BECAME AN AMERICAN CITIZEN RECENTLY. YOU MAY
WANT TO THINK ABOUT THAT.
HOST: WELL THERE ARE, OF COURSE, A LOT OF CHINESE
STUDYING HERE, BUT MOST OF THEM ARE GOING HOME
AND CONTRIBUTING TO WHAT HAS BECOME A MAJOR
ECONOMIC RENAISSANCE IN THAT COUNTRY. DAVID
LAMPTON, WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THESE
CONTRADICTIONS THAT I ALLUDED TO IN THE
INTRODUCTION? DOES IT REFLECT CONFUSION ON
THEIR PART, OR ON OUR PART?
LAMPTON: WELL, I THINK ONE OF THE CENTRAL DEVELOPMENTS IN
CHINA IS THAT IT'S BECOMING MORE PLURALISTIC.
YOU ARE HAVING THE RISE OF DIFFERENT ECONOMIC
INTEREST GROUPS. DEVELOPMENT HAS CREATED
GREATER DISPARITIES BETWEEN RICH COASTAL
PROVINCES AND THE INLAND. SO CHINA IS, IN A
SENSE, BECOMING A MORE NORMAL POLITY -- AND I
THINK IT'S INCONCEIVABLE THAT YOU WOULD EXPECT A
KIND OF IDENTITY OF VIEWS AMONG ONE POINT TWO
BILLION PEOPLE. AND I THINK PROBABLY ONE OF THE
GREATEST EVIDENCES OF SOME POLITICAL CHANGE -- I
AM NOT SAYING LIBERAL, DEMOCRATIC REFORM, BUT
POLITICAL CHANGE -- IS THE FACT THAT WE ARE
HEARING MORE VOICES FROM CHINA.
HOST: BUT WHAT VOICES? I MEAN, THE WHOLE POINT IS
THAT WE ARE HEARING OLD AND TIRED
MARXIST-LENINIST DENUNCIATIONS OF THE UNITED
STATES AND DEFENSES OF SOCIALIST ECONOMIC ORDER.
LAMPTON: WELL, YOU CERTAINLY HEAR THAT IN THE PEOPLE'S
DAILY AND XINHUA [NEWS AGENCY] AND THE GUANGMING
DAILY, AND SO FORTH. BUT THE POINT IS THAT
THAT'S A RELATIVELY SMALL PART. IT'S ONLY ABOUT
THIRTY PERCENT OF THE MEDIA IN CHINA NOW THAT
ARE PARTY-CONTROLLED. SEVENTY PERCENT ARE NOT.
I WAS JUST AT BEIJING UNIVERSITY. NINETY
PERCENT OF THE STUDENTS THERE HAVE INTERNET
ACCOUNTS. THEY ARE FULLY ACQUAINTED WITH WHAT'S
GOING ON IN THE WORLD, OR AT LEAST HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO BE. SO I THINK YOU HAVE THIS
ANOMALOUS SITUATION WHERE, AS JIM SAID, THE
PROPAGANDISTS ARE IN CHARGE OF THE COMMANDING
HEIGHTS, BUT THE GROUND IS ERODING OUT FROM
UNDERNEATH THAT STRUCTURE.
HOST: WELL, STEPHEN YATES, IS THAT THE CASE? ARE THE
PROPAGANDISTS REFLECTING THE LEADERSHIP, WHICH
IS STILL IN MORE OR LESS IN ABSOLUTE CONTROL OF
THE COUNTRY?
YATES: THE PROPAGANDISTS HAVE RUN CHINA FOR A VERY LONG
TIME, AND I THINK IT'S GOING TO TAKE A LONG TIME
TO GET THIS OUT OF THE PUBLIC SYSTEM. IF YOU
ARE TALKING ABOUT WHY THE STUDENTS REACTED THE
WAY THEY DID AFTER THE ACCIDENTAL BOMBING IN
BELGRADE, I DON'T THINK THE GOVERNMENT CREATED
THAT KIND OF EMOTION. THEY CERTAINLY
FACILITATED IT AND THEY CHANNELED IT, BUT I
THINK THAT MANY YEARS OF PROPAGANDA AND
GOVERNMENT POSTURING HAS SUNK INTO A LOT OF
PEOPLE'S MINDSETS. AND WHEN YOU ASK THEM ABOUT
SENSITIVE ISSUES, LIKE TAIWAN, LIKE HUMAN
RIGHTS, YOU'D BE AMAZED AT THE CONTINUITY OF
RESPONSES YOU GET ACROSS THE SPECTRUM IN CHINA.
I JUST THINK THAT THIS KIND OF MINDSET GOES
VERY, VERY DEEP.
HOST: WHAT ABOUT THE CHINESE BEHAVIOR AFTER THE
ACCIDENTAL BOMBING OF THE CHINESE EMBASSY IN
BELGRADE? YOU WERE U.S AMBASSADOR TO BEIJING,
JAMES LILLEY. HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN THE BEHAVIOR
OF THE GOVERNMENT IN, AS STEPHEN YATES SAID,
"FACILITATING" THESE MOB ATTACKS ON U.S.
DIPLOMATIC POSTS IN CHINA? WHAT WERE THE
CHINESE TRYING TO GAIN FROM THAT?
LILLEY: I WAS IN BEIJING AT A VERY DIFFERENT TIME. THEY
HAD JUST USED VIOLENCE TO PUT DOWN THE
DEMONSTRATORS AT TIANANMEN. AND THEY HAD
RECEIVED DISAPPROVAL FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD,
AND THEY WERE VERY MUCH ON THE DEFENSIVE. AND
SO THERE WAS A SENSE AT THAT TIME, WHEN I WAS IN
BEIJING, THAT THE DEMONSTRATORS, THE POPULACE,
WAS VERY MUCH WITH AMERICA. UNFORTUNATELY, I
THINK THAT'S CHANGED. AND I THINK PART OF IT IS
WHAT STEVE SAID: IT'S BEEN DRILLED INTO THEM.
BUT THERE IS ALSO A LARGE RESERVOIR OF
ANTI-FOREIGNISM IN CHINA. MY GOD, READ THE
HISTORY OF THE 19TH CENTURY. AND WHAT HAPPENED
TO THEM: THE OPIUM WAR, THE MARCH ON THE SUMMER
PALACE, THE BURNING DOWN, ISSUE AFTER ISSUE, THE
JAPANESE OCCUPATION. THEY HAVE A REAL HANGUP ON
FOREIGNERS, BUT THIS IS DRILLED IN THROUGH THE
EDUCATION AND PROPAGANDA SYSTEM. AND YOU THROW
A MATCH INTO THAT GASOLINE, AND IT INFLAMES.
AND THE BOMBING WAS USED TO BRING OUT, I THINK,
THE WORST PART OF THIS WHOLE FEELING OF
ANTI-FOREIGNISM DIRECTED AGAINST US.
HOST: BUT DO WE KNOW WHAT THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT WOULD
HOPE TO GAIN BY HELPING INCITE AND CHANNELING
...
LILLEY: WELL, I THINK A NUMBER OF THINGS. FIRST OF ALL
THEY DIVERT PUBLIC DISSATISFACTION FROM THEM.
THIS IS AN OLD TECHNIQUE IN CHINA. DIVERT IT TO
AN ANTI-FOREIGN, RATHER THAN HAVE IT TURN
AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT. I THINK NUMBER TWO,
THEY WERE VERY DISTURBED AT KOSOVO. WHAT
HAPPENED THERE? NATO INTERVENTION ON BEHALF OF
AN ETHNIC MINORITY AGAINST A SOVEREIGN STATE,
USING MILITARY MEANS. THIS DRIVES THEM UP THE
WALL ON TAIWAN AND TIBET. THAT WAS AN
IDEOLOGICAL ISSUE. THE EMBASSY MADE IT A HIGHLY
EMOTIONAL ONE. THEY GOT THE PEOPLE BEHIND THEM,
AND THEN THEY HAVE THESE EDITORIALS ABOUT THE
UNITED STATES BEING WORSE THAN HITLER, OUR
TREATING OF THE SERBS WORSE THAN THE HOLOCAUST.
REALLY, VERY DAMNING STUFF.
HOST: LET ME JUST INTERJECT WITH DAVID LAMPTON, TO SEE
IF THIS MIGHT NOT BE PART OF A LARGER STRATEGY
BY A REGIME WHICH IS USING AS ITS JUSTIFICATION
WHAT MANY PEOPLE CALL A "DEAD IDEOLOGY," AND
THAT THEY ARE TRYING TO SHIFT THE JUSTIFICATION
FOR THEIR EXERCISE OF POWER FROM MARXISM TO A
RESUSCITATED NATIONALISM. DOES THAT MAKE SENSE?
LAMPTON: WELL, I THINK IT MAKES SENSE. I THINK IT'S IN
PART A DESCRIPTION OF WHAT'S GOING ON. BUT I
THINK YOU HAVE TO ASK, WHY IS IT THEY THINK
THESE APPEALS TO XENOPHOBIA OR ANTI-FOREIGNISM
ARE GOING TO BE EFFECTIVE? AND THAT IS BECAUSE
I THINK THERE IS A GENERAL SENSE AMONG THE
CHINESE POPULACE, PARTLY REFLECTING THE
PROPAGANDA, BUT PARTLY REFLECTING THE DESIRE OF
THE CHINESE PEOPLE SINCE THE 19TH CENTURY TO
BECOME STRONG AND POWERFUL. AND THEY SEE THEIR
FIRST CHANCE IN A HUNDRED PLUS YEARS, AND THEY
SEE THE UNITED STATES, I THINK, POPULARLY, NOT
JUST THE PROPAGANDA APPARATUS, THAT SOMEHOW THE
UNITED STATES IS AT LEAST AMBIVALENT ABOUT
CHINA'S RISE, PERHAPS OPPOSED STRATEGICALLY TO
CHINA'S RISE. AND WHAT STRUCK ME WHEN I WAS AT
BEIJING UNIVERSITY AND MET IN RELATIVELY FREE
CIRCUMSTANCES, THE MOST ANTI-FOREIGN VIEWS, THE
MOST ANTI-AMERICAN VIEWS I HEARD, WERE ON THE
CAMPUS. THEY WEREN'T IN THE FOREIGN MINISTRY.
THEY WEREN'T CERTAINLY IN THE MINISTRY OF
FOREIGN ECONOMICS AND TRADE. THEY WERE, IN
FACT, ON THE CAMPUSES. AND I THINK THE CHINESE
GOVERNMENT, IN PART, PLAYED THE ORGANIZING ROLE
IN THESE DEMONSTRATIONS, BECAUSE THEY FEARED IF
THEY DID NOT GET OUT IN FRONT OF THIS NATIONAL
SENTIMENT, IT MIGHT BE DIRECTED AT THEM.
HOST: STEPHEN YATES, WHAT ABOUT THE IRONY HERE, IF YOU
AGREE WITH DAVID LAMPTON, THAT CHINA DESIRES TO
TAKE ITS PLACE IN THE SUN AS A GREAT POWER, YET
IT'S BASICALLY DEPENDENT UPON THE UNITED STATES
FOR THE MEANS TO GAIN THAT KIND OF POWER.
SHOULD THE UNITED STATES, OBSERVING THAT,
PROVIDE THE MEANS?
YATES: WELL, I THINK THAT WE WANT TO PROVIDE THE MEANS
FOR POSITIVE CHANGE IN CHINA. IT'S NOT CLEAR
WHICH DIRECTION CHINA IS GOING TO GO. WE SEE A
DYING OR DEAD IDEOLOGY. SOME MAY OR MAY NOT SEE
THAT WITHIN CHINA. BUT WHAT'S CLEAR TO ME IS
THAT WHEN YOU ARE ABLE TO EXPAND THE PRIVATE
SECTOR AND EXPAND FREEDOM FOR PEOPLE INSIDE
CHINA, IN A SMALL WAY YOU EMPOWER THEM TO TAKE
GREATER CONTROL OF THEIR LIVES. WHETHER THEY
CHOOSE OUR FORM OF DEMOCRACY, OR SOMETHING ELSE,
WE BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN FREEDOM,
THEY'LL BE BETTER OFF. WE SHOULD HELP
FACILITATE THAT KIND OF CHANGE. BUT AT THE SAME
TIME WE DON'T HAVE TO PREDICT WHEN THIS IS GOING
TO HAPPEN OR TRY TO DICTATE TERMS. I THINK WHAT
PROBLEM WE FACE DEALING WITH CHINA IS THEY DON'T
WANT A JUNIOR PARTNER RELATIONSHIP. WE LOOK AT
OUR RELATIONS WITH JAPAN. WE HAVE A GOOD AND
VERY CLOSE RELATIONSHIP, A SECURITY TREATY, BUT
IT'S A JUNIOR PARTNERSHIP. AND I THINK CHINA
WANTS VERY VERY MUCH TO AVOID BEING VIEWED AS
THE JUNIOR PARTNER. THEY WANT RESPECT. THEY
WANT TO BE ABLE TO DICTATE SOME TERMS. THEY MAY
NOT NECESSARILY WANT TO CLASH HEAD TO HEAD, BUT
THEY DEFINITELY WANT TO PULL US DOWN TO THEIR
LEVEL AND LOOK THEM IN THE EYE AND DEAL WITH
THEM AS EQUALS, AND THAT SEEMS TO BE THEIR
DESIRE. SO IF YOU ASK ME WHAT DO THEY WANT, I
THINK THEY WANT THIS KIND OF RESPECT.
HOST: WELL, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN IN PRACTICAL TERMS?
YATES: WELL, IN PRACTICAL TERMS, I THINK THERE IS AN
IDEOLOGICAL GULF BETWEEN US. IT ISN'T
NECESSARILY CONFRONTATIONAL, BUT IT EXISTS.
FIRST OF ALL, THEY PUT SOVEREIGNTY AND UNITY AS
THEIR NUMBER ONE PRIORITIES. WE STATE FREEDOM,
DEMOCRACY, HUMAN RIGHTS. THIS CAME TO THE TEST
IN KOSOVO. WE SIDED WITH FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY
AND HUMAN RIGHTS. THEY SIDED WITH UNITY AND
SOVEREIGNTY. THIS IS BASIC TO OUR DIFFERENCES
ON TAIWAN. THAT'S AN IDEOLOGICAL SEPARATION,
BUT IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE CONFRONTATION. BUT ON
THE OTHER SIDE, CHINA WANTS TO BE ABLE TO BE
SECURE. THEY FEEL VERY INSECURE IN MANY WAYS,
PARTICULARLY THEIR SEA COAST. THEY NEED TO HAVE
A BUFFER ZONE AROUND THEIR SEA COAST THAT LETS
THEIR MOST PROSPEROUS AREAS THRIVE. AND WHAT DO
THEY RUN INTO? IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE
SEVENTH FLEET. IN TAIWAN, THE TAIWAN RELATIONS
ACT. IN JAPAN, THE U.S.-JAPANESE SECURITY
TREATY WITH GUIDELINES EXPANDED, AND A
PREDOMINANT POSITION OF THE UNITED STATES ON THE
KOREAN PENINSULA. SO WHERE THEY ARE TEMPTED TO
INCREASE THEIR INFLUENCE, THEY RUN INTO US. NOW
AGAIN, THIS DOESN'T HAVE TO BE CONFRONTATIONAL.
THIS CAN BE WORKED OUT. BUT WE CAN'T MINIMIZE
THE DIFFICULTIES WHEN WE HAVE THESE INTERSECTING
INTERESTS.
HOST: ALL RIGHT. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE STRATEGIC
SITUATION FOR A MOMENT, IF WE MAY, WHICH YOU
SPELLED OUT VERY NICELY FROM THEIR PERSPECTIVE.
WHAT ABOUT THE PERSPECTIVE OF, SAY, JAPAN, WHICH
YOU DESCRIBED SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLY AS A JUNIOR
PARTNER OF THE UNITED STATES? IF CHINA ASSUMES
ITS PLACE AS A GREAT POWER, WHICH UNDOUBTEDLY IT
IS BECOMING, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR SOUTHEAST
ASIA AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR JAPAN? IF THEY
REUNIFY WITH TAIWAN, EITHER PEACEFULLY OR
OTHERWISE, IF THEY CONTINUE THEIR ACTIVITIES IN
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND THE SPRATLYS AND THE
PARACEL ISLANDS, THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE A
CHOKEHOLD ON THE SEA LANES FOR MUCH OF THE
WORLD'S ECONOMY. WHAT WILL JAPAN DO IN A
SITUATION LIKE THAT?
LAMPTON: WELL, I THINK WE SORT OF HAVE TO WALK AND CHEW
GUM AT THE SAME TIME, AND HOLD SOME COMPETING
THOUGHTS IN OUR MIND AS WE THINK ABOUT THIS.
FIRST OF ALL, YOU SAID THAT CHINA NEEDS OUR HELP
TO DEVELOP, IN YOUR PREVIOUS QUESTION. THAT'S
TRUE AT ONE LEVEL, BUT I THINK CHINA
STRATEGICALLY IS GOING TO DEVELOP MAYBE SLOWER,
MAYBE FASTER, DEPENDING ON THE KIND OF
RELATIONSHIP IT HAS WITH THE UNITED STATES, BUT
CHINA IS GOING TO DEVELOP, AND WE OUGHT TO PLAN
ON IT STRATEGICALLY FROM THAT POINT OF VIEW. I
THINK THAT STRATEGICALLY, LOOKING AT BIG POWER
RELATIONS, IT'S GOING TO BE IMPOSSIBLE TO
MAINTAIN PEACE IN ASIA IF THE UNITED STATES,
JAPAN, AND CHINA ARE NOT IN SOME KIND OF
PRODUCTIVE, MODESTLY HARMONIOUS POSITION. AND
IT IS NOT IN THE INTERESTS OF THE UNITED STATES
TO THINK ABOUT PLAYING JAPAN AND THE UNITED
STATES OFF AGAINST CHINA, OR ANY OF THESE
COMBINATIONS. WE HAVE TO BEGIN TO THINK HOW TO
WORK OUT A REASONABLE WAY. THE JAPANESE ARE
WORRIED ABOUT THIS. MANY OF THE SOUTHEAST
ASIANS ARE WORRIED WHETHER THEY CAN DEAL WITH A
POWERFUL CHINA. BUT ONE THING WE CAN BE ASSURED
OF: IF WE DEFINE CHINA AS THE ENEMY NOW, IT IS
GOING TO HAVE NO CHOICE ITSELF BUT TO ACQUIRE
THE CAPABILITY TO DEAL WITH THAT.
HOST: BUT CHINA MAY NOT SIMPLY BE DRIVEN BY HOW WE
THINK OF THEM. HOW DO THEY THINK OF THEMSELVES?
LAMPTON: I THINK THEY SEE THEMSELVES OCCUPYING A POSITION
IN ASIA WHERE NO SIGNIFICANT THING CAN HAPPEN IN
EAST ASIA THAT'S CONTRARY TO THEIR INTERESTS
WITHOUT THEM HAVING A MAJOR SAY-SO. AND THAT IN
SOME SENSE, I THINK, RUNS CONTRARY TO WHAT THE
U.S. DEFINES AS ITS OBJECTIVE.
HOST: SO, STEPHEN YATES, HOW DO YOU HARMONIZE THAT? I
THINK THAT DAVID LAMPTON SPELLED OUT BEAUTIFULLY
WHAT OUGHT TO BE THE DIPLOMATIC OBJECTIVE FOR
THE NEXT HALF CENTURY. IT'S JUST HOW COULD YOU
POSSIBLY ACHIEVE IT WHEN THE COMPETING INTERESTS
SEEM TO CLASH.
YATES: WELL, IT'S GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE CHINA
COULD FORCE THE UNITED STATES FROM ASIA IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT WAY. WE ASSUMEDLY WILL NOT STAND
STILL. NEITHER WILL OUR FRIENDS AND ALLIES IN
THE REGION. WE CAN HOPE THAT WE ARE RIGHT ABOUT
HISTORICAL TRENDS AND THAT FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY
ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN ASIA.
HOST: WITHOUT SAYING THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN, WOULD ONE
OF THE THINGS THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES
HAVE TO DO, GIVEN THE STRATEGIC MODERNIZATION OF
CHINESE MISSILES, BE A MISSILE DEFENSE?
YATES: I THINK SO. I THINK THAT EVERYONE HAS A RIGHT
TO PROTECT THEMSELVES. AND IF YOU'RE GOING TO
JUDGE WHO IS THE AGGRESSOR AND WHO IS LEGITIMATE
IN EMPLOYING MILITARY MEANS IN THEIR DEFENSE,
MISSILE DEFENSE IN MY VIEW IS JUST THAT:
DEFENSE. THE THREAT IS THE MISSILE, NOT THE
SYSTEM TO KNOCK IT OUT OF THE SKY. BUT I JUST
THINK THE UNITED STATES NEEDS TO REALLY FOLLOW
WHAT WAS MEANT BY COMPREHENSIVE ENGAGEMENT, TO
TRY TO HELP ECONOMIES DEVELOP AND BUILD THE
INFRASTRUCTURE NECESSARY FOR FREE MARKETS TO
WORK IN ASIA, TO BUILD POLITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
TO ALLOW FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY TO SPREAD. BUT
AT THE SAME TIME YOU HAVE TO HEDGE YOUR BETS AND
MAKE SURE YOU'RE DEFENDING YOURSELF AGAINST ANY
MAJOR CHALLENGE ALONG THE WAY.
HOST: ALL RIGHT, THAT'S GOING TO TAKE US BACK TO THE
BIG ECONOMIC ISSUES, WHICH WERE DERAILED BY THIS
UNFORTUNATE ACCIDENT IN BELGRADE, AND THE WORLD
TRADE ORGANIZATION. THE EUROPEAN UNION RECENTLY
AGREED WITH CHINA OVER THE TERMS OF ITS ENTRY.
WHAT DOES THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE HOLD IN THAT
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES
ON GETTING CHINA INTO THE WORLD TRADE
ORGANIZATION?
LILLEY: WELL, IN MY VIEW IT'S THE NUMBER ONE PRIORITY
NOW. IF YOU BRING CHINA INTO THE WORLD TRADE
ORGANIZATION, LET'S SAY BY NOVEMBER, AND TAIWAN
ENTERS TOO, UNDER THE ARRANGEMENT THAT'S BEEN
WORKED OUT, THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING WE
CAN DO IN THE NEXT FIVE MONTHS. I MEAN, WE HAVE
A PROBLEM IN THE CHINESE REQUIRING A MORE
EXPANSIVE EXPLANATION FOR WHAT HAPPENED AND
COMPENSATION, BUT WE HOPE THAT THAT WILL SPIN
ITSELF OUT AS WE HAVE BEGUN TO DISCUSS
COMPENSATION WITH THEM AND THAT WE CAN GET VERY
QUICKLY INTO THE NITTY-GRITTY OF A DEAL WHICH IS
VERY VERY GOOD FOR THE UNITED STATES.
HOST: AND I ASK ANY OF YOU TO RESPOND: IS THE PROBLEM
THAT HAS NOW ARISEN BECAUSE OF PRESIDENT LEE IN
TAIWAN REDEFINING THE NATURE OF THE RELATIONSHIP
WITH THE MAINLAND, SAYING IT'S NOW A "SPECIAL
STATE TO STATE" RELATIONSHIP, RATHER THAN A
POLITICAL ENTITY, IS THIS GOING TO SPILL OVER
INTO THE U.S.-CHINA RELATIONSHIP?
LAMPTON: WELL, I THINK OUR OBJECTIVE SHOULD BE TO HAVE AS
LITTLE SPILLOVER AS POSSIBLE. THERE IS
CERTAINLY THAT POSSIBILITY. BUT I THINK THIS
MAKES AN AGREEMENT ON W-T-O EVEN MORE IMPORTANT
BECAUSE AT THE SAME TIME WE HAVE THESE
INEVITABLE FRICTIONS WITH THE P-R-C, WE'VE GOT
TO HAVE SOME POSITIVE CORNER OF THE
RELATIONSHIP, WHERE ALL SIDES ARE BENEFITTING.
AND AS JIM SAID, THIS IS AN AGREEMENT THAT'S
ENORMOUSLY IN THE AMERICAN INTEREST. AND I
THINK ONCE AMERICANS UNDERSTAND WHAT THE
POSSIBILITIES ARE HERE, WE'LL WONDER WHY WE
DIDN'T TAKE THE DEAL IN APRIL.
HOST: AND DO YOU HAVE ANY FEAR THAT CHINA WILL BALK
NOW IN OFFERING THE SAME SET OF TERMS WITH BOTH
THE BELGRADE MISHAP AND THIS NEW PROVOCATION --
THE CHINESE WOULD CALL IT A PROVOCATION -- FROM
TAIWAN?
LAMPTON: WELL, I THINK THAT DOESN'T HELP THE REFORMERS
AND THOSE PEOPLE IN FAVOR OF A MORE OPEN POLICY.
IT STRENGTHENS THE MILITARY AND THE
PROPAGANDISTS, YET MODESTLY MAKES IT MORE
DIFFICULT TO GET THE KIND OF DEAL WE COULD HAVE
HAD IN APRIL. AND IT PROBABLY IS GOING TO UP
THE VOLUME OF ANTI-TAIWAN AND ANTI-AMERICAN
PROPAGANDA FOR AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF TIME, I
WOULD GUESS.
HOST: WHAT IS YOUR VIEW, STEVE?
YATES: I THINK THE W-T-O IS PROBABLY THE ONLY AREA WE
HAVE THAT'S POSSIBLE FOR COOPERATION AND
PROGRESS IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AND THE KEY TO
REALLY MAKING THIS WORK, AND TO TIE IN WITH THE
LEE TENG-HUI STATEMENT, IS BRINGING TAIWAN ALONG
AT THE SAME TIME. WHAT I AM TOLD MOTIVATED THE
LEE STATEMENT WAS THIS NOTION THAT TAIWAN HAD
BEEN GOING ALONG WITH THE PHRASE "CO-EQUAL
POLITICAL ENTITIES" FOR A LONG TIME, AND CHINA
HAD USED IT TO SQUEEZE THEM OUT OF INTERNATIONAL
ORGANIZATIONS. IF YOU'RE ABLE, IN A
CONSTRUCTIVE WAY, TO BRING TAIWAN INTO A
SUBSTANTIAL INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION, IT
ADDRESSES THAT CORE MOTIVATION TO SOME DEGREE.
AND YOU GET A GOOD DEAL FOR ALL PARTIES.
TAIWAN'S MARKET IS VERY IMPORTANT TO THE UNITED
STATES. CHINA'S MARKET IS VERY IMPORTANT TO THE
UNITED STATES. AND BOTH OF THOSE PARTIES HAVE
THE INCENTIVE TO IMPROVE THEIR ECONOMIC
INFRASTRUCTURES THAT WILL BENEFIT THEIR PEOPLE
IN THE LONG RUN. IT'S CONSTRUCTIVE, IT'S REAL,
IT'S SOMETHING THAT CAN BE DONE, AND POLITICS
DOESN'T HAVE TO INTERFERE. IT STILL MAY AND
LIKELY WILL, BUT THIS IS A CONSTRUCTIVE DEAL
THAT CAN ACTUALLY WORK.
HOST: CLOSING THOUGHT, AMBASSADOR?
LILLEY: LET ME JUST MAKE A POINT ON THIS CHINA-TAIWAN
PROBLEM SINCE IT'S COME UP. THERE IS AN AWFUL
LOT OF RHETORIC INVOLVED. THERE'S AN AWFUL LOT
OF SMOKE. PEOPLE HAVE NOT BEEN KILLED IN COMBAT
IN THE TAIWAN STRAITS SINCE AUGUST 1958,
FORTY-ONE YEARS. THIS ISN'T KOSOVO. THIS ISN'T
KOREA. THIS ISN'T KASHMIR. SO MUCH OF THIS IS
THRUST AND PARRY, BY-PLAY, THREAT, MOVEMENT OF
TROOPS. IT'S CLASSICAL CHINESE WARFARE. THE
GREATEST BATTLE IS WON WITHOUT FIRING A SHOT.
AND YOU'VE WATCHED THIS. AND ONE OF THE
IMPLICATIONS IN WHAT WAS SAID IS CHOU EN-LAI
SAID ABOUT THE FRENCH REVOLUTION: "IT'S STILL
TOO EARLY TO TELL." WAIT AND SEE IF THEY CANCEL
THE WANG DAOHAN TRIP TO TAIWAN IN
SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER. WAIT AND SEE IF THEY PULL
SOME MILITARY EXERCISE IN THE STRAIT. WE THINK
THAT THE STATEMENT BY THE SPOKESMAN OF THE STATE
DEPARTMENT -- I THINK IT WAS FAIRLY BALANCED.
HE SAID: "COOL IT!" AS THE CHINESE SAY: [SPEAKS
IN CHINESE] "YOU PULL BACK, AND THE SEAS WILL
OPEN AND THE SKIES WILL OPEN." I THINK IT'S
TIME FOR THAT RIGHT NOW.
HOST: I'M AFRAID THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS
WEEK. I'D LIKE TO THANK OUR GUESTS -- FORMER
U.S. AMBASSADOR TO CHINA JAMES LILLEY FROM THE
AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE; DAVID LAMPTON
FROM THE JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL FOR ADVANCED
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES; AND STEPHEN YATES FROM
THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION -- FOR JOINING ME TO
DISCUSS CHINA AND U.S. POLICY. THIS IS ROBERT
REILLY FOR ON THE LINE.
15-Jul-99 1:06 PM EDT (1706 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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