DATE=7/1/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43788
TITLE=U-S STRATEGY TOWARD CHINA
BYLINE= ED WARNER
DATELINE= WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRODUCTION: THE UNITED STATES MUST DEVELOP A CLEAR STRATEGY
TOWARD CHINA, SAID PARTICIPANTS AT A RECENT WASHINGTON CONFERENCE
WHO ARE ESPECIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT BEIJING'S INTENTIONS AND
AMBITIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN. A LACK OF U-S
CLARITY, THEY WARNED, COULD MISLEAD BEIJING INTO TAKING DANGEROUS
ACTIONS IN THE REGION. V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS THE DISCUSSION.
TEXT: THE UNITED STATES WAS DEEPLY CONCERNED WITH SOUTHEAST ASIA
DURING THE VIETNAM WAR, SAYS MARVIN OTT, BUT HAS LARGELY IGNORED
THE REGION SINCE THEN. A PROFESSOR OF NATIONAL SECURITY AT THE
NATIONAL WAR COLLEGE, MR. OTT THINKS U-S POLICY MAKERS HAVE
CONCENTRATED ON THE ECONOMICS OF THE REGION, FROM THE SO-CALLED
MIRACLE TO THE CURRENT CRISIS, WHILE IGNORING BASIC STRATEGY.
AT A RECENT CONFERENCE OF THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION (WED., JUNE
30), HE SAID THIS INDIFFERENCE SHOWS UP IN A RECENT STRATEGY
REVIEW OF THE U-S DEFENSE AND STATE DEPARTMENTS.
/// FIRST OTT ACT ///
WHAT IS STRIKING TO ME IS THAT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE
DESCRIPTION OF THE AMOUNT OF MILITARY POWER THE UNITED
STATES HAS DISPOSED IN THE REGION - THE SEVENTH FLEET,
AIR ELEMENTS AND SO ON. ONE LOOKS IN VAIN THROUGHOUT THE
DOCUMENT FOR A COHERENT EXPLANATION OF WHY THAT POWER IS
OUT THERE. WE ARE CARRYING A VERY BIG STICK, BUT FOR THE
CASUAL READER, IT IS NOT AT ALL CLEAR WHY.
/// END ACT ///
POWER WITHOUT STRATEGY IS INEFFECTIVE, SAID PROFESSOR OTT. THE
SAME REVIEW OMITS AN EARLIER DECLARATION THAT THE UNITED STATES
HAS A VITAL INTEREST IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. WHY WAS THIS LEFT
OUT? PENTAGON OFFICIALS SHRUG AND SAY IT HAS NO SIGNIFICANCE.
PROFESSOR OTT SAYS IT HAS PLENTY OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR BEIJING:
/// SECOND OTT ACT ///
IT IS A CLEAR SIGNAL OF U-S INTENTIONS AND STRATEGIC
VIEW WITH REGARD TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. I AM AWARE OF
CONVERSATIONS BETWEEN CHINESE GENERAL OFFICERS AND THEIR
U-S COUNTERPARTS IN WHICH THE CHINESE OFFICER SAYS, "WE
KNOW THAT THE UNITED STATES BASICALLY ACCEPTS THE
CHINESE CLAIM TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BECAUSE THE UNITED
STATES HAS NOT FORMALLY PUT ON THE RECORD ITS
OPPOSITION."
/// END ACT ///
PROFESSOR OTT SAYS THE FAILURE OF THE UNITED STATES TO CLARIFY
ITS POLICY HAS DRAWN IT INTO TWO WARS: THE KOREAN AND THE PERSIAN
GULF. IN BOTH CASES, U-S POLICY MAKERS DID NOT ESTABLISH A CLEAR
LINE THAT AGGRESSORS COULD NOT CROSS. NORTH KOREA AND IRAQ
MISTAKENLY ASSUMED U-S SILENCE MEANT ACQUIESCENCE. WAR RESULTED.
A SIMILAR DANGER AWAITS THE UNITED STATES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA,
SAYS PROFESSOR OTT, IF IT DOES NOT MAKE ITS POSITION CLEAR.
CHINA NEEDS STRAIGHTFORWARD TALK, SAID CARL FORD, PRESIDENT OF A
WASHINGTON CONSULTING FIRM ON DEFENSE ISSUES. CHINA'S NEIGHBORS
AND THE UNITED STATES SHOULD REASSURE BEIJING OF THEIR GOOD
INTENTIONS TOWARD IT, WHILE WARNING AGAINST PROVOCATIVE ACTS:
/// FIRST FORD ACT ///
IN ALL THE COUNTRIES I VISIT REGULARLY, THE LEADERS AND
ACADEMICS I SPEAK TO NOT ONLY APPRECIATE CHINA AS A
GREAT POWER, BUT THEY LOOK FORWARD TO CHINA TAKING ON AN
APPROPRIATE ROLE IN ASIA. THEY DO NOT WANT ANYTHING THAT
CHINA HAS, BUT THEY ARE NERVOUS. THEY ARE WORRIED THAT
CHINA MIGHT WANT SOMETHING THEY HAVE OR THAT MIGHT
AFFECT THEIR INTEREST.
/// END ACT ///
MR. FORD SAYS CHINESE MILITARY EXERCISES AND BALLISTIC MISSILE
TESTS HAVE ALARMED ITS NEIGHBORS. HE IS ESPECIALLY CONCERNED
ABOUT THREATS TO TAIWAN. HE THINKS U-S POLICY HAS BEEN TOO
AMBIVALENT AND SHOULD DIRECTLY ADDRESS THE ISSUE TO BEIJING:
/// SECOND FORD ACT ///
WE UNDERSTAND YOUR LONG HELD AND SINCERELY FELT
ATTACHMENT TO TAIWAN. BUT FRANKLY, UNTIL YOU, BEIJING,
START PAYING MORE ATTENTION TO WHAT THE PEOPLE ON TAIWAN
WANT, WHAT THE PEOPLE ON TAIWAN THINK, YOU ARE GOING TO
DIG YOURSELF A HUGE HOLE. IT DOES NOT HELP TO THREATEN
MISSILE ATTACKS. IT DOES NOT HELP TO POSTURE MILITARILY.
THAT IS SAYING, "WE DO NOT CARE WHAT YOU THINK. WE WANT
TO SCARE YOU INTO CHANGING YOUR MIND."
/// END ACT ///
MR. FORD BELIEVES THAT ONCE CHINA STARTS CARING FOR TAIWANESE
OPINION, THE CONFLICT CAN BE RESOLVED WITHOUT THE WAR THAT IS SO
OFTEN FEARED BY WESTERN ANALYSTS. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/GM
01-Jul-99 6:57 PM EDT (2257 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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