DATE=6/29/99
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-251241
TITLE=CHINA / W-T-O (L-ONLY)
BYLINE=BARRY WOOD
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: THE PRIVATE SECTOR INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS,
BASED IN WASHINGTON, RELEASED A STUDY TUESDAY SUGGESTING THAT
CHINESE MEMBERSHIP IN THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION WOULD GREATLY
BENEFIT U-S CONSUMERS AND BUSINESSES. AS V-O-A'S BARRY WOOD
REPORTS, THE RESEARCHERS CONCLUDE THAT POLITICS -- NOT
ECONOMICS -- WILL DETERMINE WHETHER CHINA OBTAINS ITS LONG-SOUGHT
OBJECTIVE OF JOINING THE W-T-O.
TEXT: TRADE OFFICIALS FROM THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA HELD
INFORMAL DISCUSSIONS IN NEW ZEALAND MONDAY, EVEN THOUGH FORMAL
NEGOTIATIONS AIMED AT CLEARING THE WAY FOR CHINESE MEMBERSHIP IN
THE W-T-O REMAIN SUSPENDED. CHINA CUT OFF THE TALKS LAST MONTH
TO PROTEST THE U-S BOMBING OF THE CHINESE EMBASSY IN BELGRADE.
THE STUDY RELEASED BY INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
ASSERTS THERE ARE CLEAR BENEFITS TO CHINA BEING PART OF THE
W-T-O, THE GENEVA-BASED AGENCY OF 132 COUNTRIES THAT SETS FREE
TRADE RULES, RESOLVES TRADE DISPUTES, AND PROMOTES INVESTMENT. A
BI-LATERAL U-S CHINA TRADE DEAL WAS AT HAND IN APRIL WHEN PRIME
MINISTER ZHU RONGJI VISITED WASHINGTON, BUT PRESIDENT CLINTON
FEARED THE AGREEMENT COULD HAVE AN ADVERSE POLITICAL IMPACT AT
HOME. HE UNEXPECTEDLY UPPED U-S DEMANDS, INSISTING ON GREATER
U-S ACCESS TO THE CHINESE MARKET AND MORE PROTECTION FOR U-S
TEXTILE PRODUCERS. THE CHINESE REFUSED, AND THE TALKS HAVE BEEN
ON HOLD SINCE THEN -- EVEN BEFORE BI-LATERAL RELATIONS
DETERIORATED BECAUSE OF ALLEGED CHINESE ESPIONAGE AND THE
AMERICAN BOMBING OF THE CHINESE EMBASSY IN BELGRADE.
FRED BERGSTEN, THE DIRECTOR OF THE ECONOMICS INSTITUTE, SAYS
CHINESE MEMBERSHIP IN THE W-T-O WOULD REQUIRE CHINA TO END MANY
OF ITS IMPORT RESTRICTIONS, AND WOULD THUS BOOST U-S EXPORTS TO
CHINA BY THREE-BILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR. MR. BERGSTEN SAYS FREER
TRADE WITH CHINA WOULD NOT RESULT IN A NEW SURGE OF U-S IMPORTS
FROM CHINA.
AT A CONFERENCE UNVEILING THE TRADE STUDY, ECONOMIST NICHOLAS
LARDY SAID A U-S CHINA DEAL ON W-T-O MEMBERSHIP IS POSSIBLE IF
BOTH SIDES COMPROMISE. THE UNITED STATES NEEDS TO BACK AWAY FROM
THE TOUGHER POSITION VOICED BY PRESIDENT CLINTON. THE CHINESE,
SAYS MR. LARDY, MUST ADHERE TO THE INITIAL COMMITMENTS THEY MADE
TO THE U-S TRADE REPRESENTATIVE IN EARLY APRIL. MR. LARDY SAYS
W-T-O MEMBERSHIP WILL NOT NECESSARILY LEAD TO MORE FOREIGN
INVESTMENT IN CHINA.
/// LARDY ACT ///
IT IS A TWO-EDGED SWORD IN THE W-T-O AGREEMENT. YES,
MORE TRANSPARENCY, MORE RULE OF LAW, BETTER DISTRIBUTION
AND SO FORTH WILL CAUSE SOME FIRMS TO INVEST MORE. BUT
MORE OPEN-NESS IN THE MARKET WILL CAUSE SOME FIRMS TO
INVEST LESS. IF THE CHINESE REALLY WANT TO GET MORE
FOREIGN INVESTMENT GOING TO CHINA, AND I THINK THEY DO,
THERE ARE OTHER MEASURES THEY CAN TAKE THAT ARE QUITE
SEPARATE FROM THE W-T-O.
/// END ACT ///
THESE, SAYS MR. LARDY, INCLUDE MORE STOCK OFFERINGS ON WORLD
MARKETS BY CHINESE ENTERPRISES AND GREATER ACCESS FOR FOREIGN
FIRMS INTO THE PROTECTED CHINESE TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND ENERGY
SECTORS.
MR. LARDY SAYS WHILE FAVORING CHINESE W-T-O MEMBERSHIP, PRIME
MINISTER ZHU IS UNDER PRESSURE TO RESIST MORE MARKET OPENING
MEASURES. THE CHINESE ECONOMY, SAYS MR. LARDY, IS GROWING AT A
RATE OF ONLY THREE-AND-ONE-HALF PERCENT -- ABOUT HALF OF WHAT HAD
BEEN PREDICTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. (SIGNED)
NEB/BDW/WTW
29-Jun-99 4:34 PM EDT (2034 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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