DATE=5/25/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43492
TITLE=CHINA SPYING / IMPACT
BYLINE=GIL BUTLER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: ASIDE FROM THE DEFENSE IMPLICATIONS OF THE CONGRESSIONAL
REPORT ON CHINESE NUCLEAR SPYING, THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT
LONG-TERM EFFECTS ON SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONS. V-O-A'S GIL BUTLER
HAS MORE ON THAT IN THIS BACKGROUND REPORT.
TEXT: THE COX COMMITTEE REPORT COMES AT A TIME WHEN UNITED
STATES RELATIONS WITH CHINA ARE STRAINED BECAUSE OF NATO'S
BOMBING OF THE CHINESE EMBASSY IN BELGRADE AND CHINA'S RESPONSE
TO IT.
CHINA SECURITY EXPERT BATES GILL, OF THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION,
BELIEVES THE ALLEGATIONS OF NUCLEAR SPYING WILL WORSEN
SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONS.
/// FIRST GILL ACT ///
MOST IMPORTANTLY, I THINK, IT WILL STRENGTHEN THE
PERCEPTION IN THIS COUNTRY ABOUT CHINA AS A COUNTRY THAT
CAN'T BE TRUSTED -- STRENGTHEN SUSPICIONS. AND OVER IN
CHINA, THIS REPORT WILL STRENGTHEN THE VIEW THERE THAT
AMERICA IS INTENT ON FINGER-POINTING AND EVEN CONTAINING
CHINA. SO IN BOTH CAPITALS, IN BOTH COUNTRIES, THE
IMPACT OF THIS REPORT IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO A GREATER
DOWNTURN IN THE RELATIONSHIP.
/// END ACT ///
FORMER AMERICAN AMBASSADOR TO CHINA JAMES LILLEY -- NOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE -- EXPRESSED
HOPE THE LATEST REVELATIONS WILL NOT CAUSE PERMANENT DAMAGE.
/// LILLEY ACT ///
WE KNOW WHAT IT IS TO HAVE A DOWNTURN IN THE
RELATIONSHIP. THIS IS NOT GOOD, BUT I DO THINK IF WE
GET TOGETHER WITH THE WILL TO MAKE IT WORK AND
SUFFICIENT THRUST TO MOVE THE RELATIONSHIP AHEAD, WE CAN
DO IT. WE AMERICANS HAVE TO CLEAN UP OUR SYSTEM. WE
WERE A GREAT BIG FAT SITTING DUCK CHOCK FULL OF MILITARY
SECRETS AND IT WAS A SITTING TARGET THAT NOBODY COULD
RESIST.
/// END ACT ///
RICHARD FISHER OF THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION CALLS THE FINDINGS OF
THE COX COMMITTEE "A WAKE-UP CALL" [A WARNING SIGNAL]. HE SAYS
AMERICA SHOULD RE-EVALUATE ITS FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA,
REALIZING THAT IT COULD POSE A THREAT TO U-S SECURITY.
/// FISHER ACT ///
I BELIEVE IT DOES. ANY COUNTRY'S LONG-RANGE, NUCLEAR
BALLISTIC MISSILES COULD POSE A POTENTIAL RISK TO THE
UNITED STATES. CHINA'S INTENTIONS CLEARLY ARE TO BUILD
A NEW GENERATION OF MODERN, MOBILE, AND THEREFORE MUCH
MORE DIFFICULT TO DETECT, LAND-BASED LONG-RANGE
BALLISTIC MISSILES. THE NEW SMALLER WARHEADS WILL MAKE
IT EASIER FOR CHINA TO PUT MULTIPLE WARHEADS ON THESE
NEW BALLISTIC MISSILES. CHINA COULD ALSO TAKE THESE NEW
WARHEADS AND REFIT EXISTING, LESS MODERN I-C-B-M'S TO
MAKE THEM MUCH MORE CAPABLE AND THREATENING.
/// END ACT ///
MR. GILL OF THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION SAYS THE INTELLIGENCE
COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT CONCLUDES IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER CHINA
HAS BEEN ABLE TO TURN WHAT IT HAS LEARNED INTO REAL MILITARY
CAPABILITY.
/// GILL ACT ///
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THEY HAVE NOT. THAT ALL OF
THESE SO-CALLED SECRETS THAT THEY HAVE RECEIVED, HAVE
NOT BEEN TRANSLATED AT PRESENT INTO ANY SIGNIFICANT
UPGRADE IN CHINESE MILITARY CAPABILITY.
/// END ACT ///
SOME OF THE MAIN FINDINGS OF THE COX COMMITTEE HAVE BEEN PUBLIC
FOR SEVERAL MONTHS, BUT THE FORMAL RELEASE OF THE COMMITTEE
REPORT SEEMS CERTAIN TO SET OFF AN INTENSIFIED DEBATE OVER
AMERICAN SECURITY, AND OVER ITS RELATIONS WITH CHINA. (SIGNED)
NEB/MGB/WTW
25-May-99 1:24 PM EDT (1724 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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