Subject: Cox report conclusions questionable
Cato Institute News Memo: May 25, 1999
From: James N. Markels
Assistant Director of Public Affairs
voice: (202) 789-5256
fax: (202) 842-3490
Today, the Cox Committee released its report detailing U.S. losses of
technology through Chinese espionage and the launch of U.S. satellites.
According to Cato Institute's director of defense policy studies Ivan
Eland,
disproportionate attention has focused on the technology that was lost and
whether the Clinton administration was negligent in stopping the flow and
investigating the alleged incidents. What is needed is a hard look at the
specific ill-effects such technology transfers would have on U.S.
security.
"Conservative Republicans-looking for a new enemy to fight after the Cold
War ended-have hyped the questionable assertion that this is the most
egregious case of espionage in U.S. history. Yet the effects on U.S.
security may be overblown. The CIA was unable to determine how much of
the
information the Chinese obtained was stolen (versus what was gathered from
open sources) and what effect the information had on Chinese advances in
warhead design.
"The Cox Committee's worst-case conclusion that stolen secrets gave China
design information on thermonuclear weapons equal to that possessed by the
United States is also questionable. Even if true, many military experts
cite China's poor history in serially producing technology they've
obtained.
If China successfully incorporates the technology, to pose a substantially
increased threat to the United States, it would also need to dramatically
expand its small nuclear arsenal and abandon its nuclear doctrine of
minimum
deterrence. China's modest defense budget of $35 billion per
year-compared
with the gargantuan U.S. defense budget of $290 billion-may not be able to
support such a 'nuclear breakout.' Despite Chinese espionage, the United
States will most likely retain nuclear and conventional military dominance
well into the next century."
For additional information, contact Ivan Eland directly at 202-218-4630.
All of these issues will be explored at a Cato policy forum to be held on
June 7, 1999.
WHAT: "People's Republic of China: Red Tiger or Pink Pussycat?"
WHEN: 11:00 a.m., Monday, June 7, 1999
WHERE: F. A. Hayek Auditorium, Cato Institute,
1000 Massachusetts Ave, N.W.
The forum will also be broadcast live on from Cato's Web site:
www.cato.org .
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