Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

This theft, if it in fact occurred, would be a grievous loss of our most closely held military technology. But this latest Yellow Peril scare story that has been thrust upon us by unscrupulous politician and sensational journalist alike (this means you, New York Times) has a great big hole in it: Having apparently stolen our secrets, the Chinese have not used them to increase their nuclear threat to the United States.

"To date," says the official damage assessment report released this week, "the aggressive Chinese collection effort [i.e., espionage, attendance at nuclear seminars, avid reading of declassified documents] has not resulted in any apparent modernization of their deployed strategic force or any new nuclear weapons development."

In contrast, the Russians took whatever secrets the Rosenbergs gave them and had a bomb within four years. "The Chinese have been working on a new family of missiles for 15 years and still haven't deployed it," says John Pike of the Federation of American Scientists. "It is a remarkably leisurely modernization of their weapons systems, and I cannot detect any acceleration of their efforts."

Whatever the Chinese stole — and it appears to have been only the most general information about the size and shape of U.S. warheads — it has not allowed them to field a new weapon.

But still, wouldn't development of a smaller warhead let the Chinese deploy multiple-warhead missiles called MIRVs to hit targets more accurately? To this, there are two answers:

(1) The intelligence assessment, produced under the direction of retired Adm. David Jeremiah, says: "China has had the technical capability to develop a MIRV system for its large, currently deployed intercontinental ballistic missile for many years, but has not done so."

(2) "Who cares?" says Howard Diamond, a senior research analyst at the Arms Control Association, which monitors all threatening nuclear modernization. "China already has missiles with huge warheads. What difference does it make if Los Angeles is incinerated by a huge warhead that hits the outskirts or a smaller warhead in the center?"

The Chinese regard their nuclear missiles, the intelligence assessment says, as retaliatory weapons to deter any enemy from using nuclear weapons against them. For such deterrence, all they need is one warhead. No President is going to launch an atomic war against China knowing that he could lose Los Angeles or San Francisco in a reply attack.

Pike and Diamond view the current uproar over Chinese spying as more political hysteria than national security threat. Republicans have chosen foreign policy as their best issue for 2000. Focusing on godless Red China unites the old right wing, resurrects anti-communism as a political issue and calls attention to the Clinton administration's campaign financing scandals.

Hyping the Chinese nuclear threat also spurs politicians to spend money on defense-industry welfare programs such as Star Wars.

As a result of China's espionage, the Department of Energy has tightened security at U.S. nuclear labs. Good! But are you in any greater danger from Chinese nuclear attack today than you were, say, 25 years ago? No.