DATE=3/31/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42992
TITLE=ZHU RONGJI / THE MAN AND THE LEADER
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
// EDS NOTE: ZHU RONGJI IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE U-S
APRIL 6-14, AND HAVE TALKS WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON ON
4/8. //
INTRO: WHEN CHINESE LEADER ZHU RONGJI COMES TO THE UNITED STATES
NEXT (THIS) WEEK, IT WON'T BE HIS FIRST TRIP HERE. BUT IT WILL
BE HIS FIRST AS CHINA'S PRIME MINISTER AND WILL OFFER CHINESE AND
AMERICANS THEIR FIRST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE HIM HOLDING TALKS AT THE
WHITE HOUSE WITH A U-S PRESIDENT. IN THIS REPORT, V-O-A'S
STEPHANIE MANN LOOKS AT ZHU RONGJI -- THE MAN AND THE LEADER.
TEXT: IN CHINA, THE 70-YEAR OLD PRIME MINISTER IS KNOWN AS "THE
BOSS" -- A NO-NONSENSE MAN WHO SPEAKS BLUNTLY AND GETS THINGS
DONE. ABROAD, PRIME MINISTER ZHU RONGJI IS RESPECTED FOR HIS
PLEDGE TO RESTRUCTURE CHINA'S ECONOMY.
FORMER U-S AMBASSADOR TO BEIJING JAMES LILLEY HAS MET MR. ZHU ON
SEVERAL OCCASIONS AND DESCRIBES THE CHINESE PRIME MINISTER AS
SMART AND URBANE.
// LILLEY ACT //
ZHU RONGJI'S A VERY ACCOMPLISHED, SOPHISTICATED MAN.
HE'S TOUGH. HE'S SMART. HE'S ARTICULATE. HE CAN
HANDLE THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE WELL. HE'S WELL-READ IN
ENGLISH LITERATURE. HE HAS SOME VERY GOOD ADVISORS THAT
WRITE HIS SCRIPTS FOR HIM.
// END ACT //
AMBASSADOR LILLEY SAYS MR. ZHU IS MOST CONFIDENT IN HANDLING
ECONOMIC ISSUES.
BEFORE HE BECAME PRIME MINISTER LAST MARCH, ZHU RONGJI WAS VICE
PREMIER IN CHARGE OF THE ECONOMY. IN THAT JOB, MR. ZHU OVERSAW
THE DEVALUATION OF CHINA'S CURRENCY IN 1994, IMPLEMENTED TAX
REFORM, CUT INTEREST RATES AND DRAMATICALLY LOWERED INFLATION --
ALL WHILE KEEPING THE ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE HIGH.
NOW, AS PRIME MINISTER, HE HAS THE LEAD ROLE IN THE DIFFICULT
TASK OF STREAMLINING CHINA'S BUREAUCRACY, DISMANTLING THE
UNPROFITABLE STATE-OWNED INDUSTRIAL SECTOR, PRIVATIZING THE
COUNTRY'S HOUSING, AND MOVING TOWARD A COMMERCIALLY VIABLE
BANKING SYSTEM.
ASIAN POLICY ANALYST DOUGLAS PAAL // BEGIN OPT // SAYS ZHU
RONGJI WILL ENJOY THE SUPPORT OF CHINA'S POLITICAL LEADERSHIP AS
LONG AS HE IS ABLE TO ACHIEVE ECONOMIC SUCCESSES.
// OPT PAAL ACT ONE //
THE DOWNSIDE FOR HIM IS IF HIS COLLEAGUES DECIDE HE'S
DISPENSABLE, IF THE ECONOMY DOESN'T TURN OVER, IF IT
SPUTTERS THROUGH ANOTHER TWO OR THREE YEARS, IF LABOR
UNREST BEGINS TO CHALLENGE THE AUTHORITY OF THE
COMMUNIST PARTY, HE COULD BE A READY VICTIM OF A PALACE
COUP IN AN EFFORT TO CHANGE THE REPUTATION OF THE
LEADERSHIP WITH THE PEOPLE. I THINK HE'S GOT
VULNERABILITIES RATHER THAN STRENGTHS IN THE PROSPECTS
OF A DIFFICULT ECONOMY.
// END ACT //
MR. PAAL // END OPT // SAYS MR. ZHU IS VULNERABLE BECAUSE HE
DOES NOT HAVE A BROAD BASE OF NATIONAL POLITICAL SUPPORT. THAT
IS BECAUSE HE HAS WORKED IN THE BUREAUCRACY AS AN ECONOMIC
PLANNER AND BECAUSE HIS POLITICAL EXPERIENCE WAS LIMITED TO
SHANGHAI WHERE HE WAS MAYOR.
// OPT // ZHU RONGJI RECEIVED A DEGREE IN ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING
FROM BEIJING'S PRESTIGIOUS QINGHUA UNIVERSITY. HE HAS BEEN
PURGED TWICE IN HIS CAREER -- FIRST IN 1958 FOR OPPOSING WHAT HE
CALLED IRRATIONAL HIGH LEVEL GROWTH, AND AGAIN DURING THE
CULTURAL REVOLUTION IN 1970. HE WAS FULLY REHABILITATED IN THE
LATE 1970'S, AFTER THE DEATH OF CHAIRMAN MAO ZEDONG, THE ARREST
OF THE GANG OF FOUR, AND THE RISE TO POWER OF DENG XIAOPING. //
END OPT //
MR. PAAL IS PRESIDENT OF THE ASIA PACIFIC POLICY CENTER, A
WASHINGTON-BASED RESEARCH ORGANIZATION, AND WAS A FOREIGN POLICY
ADVISOR TO FORMER PRESIDENT BUSH. HE, TOO, HAS HAD VARIOUS
ENCOUNTERS WITH MR. ZHU AND SAYS HE IS A PERSON OF ACTION WHO
DOES NOT LET OPPOSITION GET IN HIS WAY. MR. PAAL SAYS ZHU
RONGJI'S POLITICAL SAVVY WAS EVIDENT A DECADE AGO, WHEN HE WAS
SHANGHAI MAYOR.
// PAAL ACT TWO //
IN 1989, WHEN THE TIANANMEN DEMONSTRATIONS WERE TAKING
PLACE IN BEIJING, THERE WERE DEMONSTRATIONS IN SHANGHAI
AS WELL. BUT HE MADE IT CLEAR TO THE PEOPLE, "LOOK, YOU
CAN DEMONSTRATE. JUST GO HOME AT FIVE O'CLOCK." AND
THEY DID. AND THEY NEVER HAD TO USE FORCE AND VIOLENCE
IN SHANGHAI. THAT WAS ONE OF THE THINGS, I THINK, THAT
APPEALED TO DENG XIAOPING WHEN HE WANTED TO BRING UP NEW
LEADERS TO REPLACE (FORMER PARTY CHIEF) ZHAO ZIYANG AND
OTHERS WHO FELL IN THE COURSE OF THE TIANANMEN EPISODE.
// END ACT //
BECAUSE OF HIS ABILITY TO HANDLE THE SHANGHAI DEMONSTRATORS IN
1989 AND HIS ECONOMIC REFORM POLICIES, SOME FOREIGNERS MAY THINK
MR. ZHU IS POLITICALLY LIBERAL. THAT IS A MISTAKE, SAYS MR.
PAAL, WHO DESCRIBES ZHU RONGJI AS AN AUTHORITARIAN WHO BELIEVES
IN THE DOMINANCE OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY.
THE WASHINGTON DIRECTOR OF HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH-ASIA, MIKE
JENDRZEJCZYK (JEN DREE ZIK) AGREES. MR. JENDRZEJCZYK POINTS TO A
RECENT SPEECH BY PRIME MINISTER ZHU IN WHICH HE STRESSED THE NEED
TO PREVENT ANY ATTEMPTS AT SUBVERSION.
// JENDRZEJCZYK ACT //
I THINK HE VERY MUCH RECOGNIZES THAT THERE IS GROWING
MOMENTUM WITHIN CHINA FOR SPEEDING UP OF ECONOMIC
REFORMS AND FOR POLITICAL REFORMS. BUT THUS FAR HE
SEEMS TO BE VERY MUCH TOWING THE PARTY LINE, WHICH IS
THAT THE COMMUNIST PARTY HAS TO MAINTAIN ITS MONOPOLY
OVER POWER. THAT'S THE FIRST PRIORITY.
// END ACT
MR. JENDRZEJCZYK SAYS PRIME MINISTER ZHU AND OTHER CHINESE
LEADERS WANT TO MAKE SURE LAID-OFF WORKERS AND PEOPLE UPSET OVER
CORRUPTION AND HIGH TAXES DO NOT JOIN FORCES WITH POLITICAL
ACTIVISTS AND CAUSE SOCIAL UNREST TO SPREAD.
REGARDING MR. ZHU'S VISIT TO THE UNITED STATES, DOUGLAS PAAL SAYS
THE CHINESE LEADER WILL BE ABLE TO SHOW IT AS A GREAT SUCCESS IF
HE GETS WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION MEMBERSHIP FOR CHINA. BUT IF
THAT POSITIVE RESULT IS NOT FORTHCOMING, MR. PAAL SAYS PRIME
MINISTER ZHU MAY DECIDE TO SOUND VERY TOUGH -- IN HIS WORDS, GO
NEGATIVE -- ON THE ISSUES WHERE CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES HAVE
MAJOR DIFFERENCES, SUCH AS TAIWAN, NATO INTERVENTION IN KOSOVO,
AND ALLEGATIONS OF CHINESE SPYING AT U-S NUCLEAR LABORATORIES.
MR. PAAL SAYS PRIME MINISTER ZHU MAY SOUND TOUGH, BUT HIS
PERSONAL CHARM IS LIKELY TO WIN SOME SUPPORTERS AND WILL BE
ESPECIALLY USEFUL IF HE MEETS SOME SKEPTICAL MEMBERS OF CONGRESS.
// PAAL ACT THREE //
IT'S PARTLY THE SENSE OF HUMOR. IT'S PARTLY THE SMILE.
IT'S PARTLY THE DIRECTNESS. IT'S PARTLY JUST HIS
APPEARANCE, BUT HE'S GOT A REAL CHARM. WHEN HE CAME
LEADING A MAYOR'S DELEGATION AFTER TIANANMEN, IT WAS THE
FIRST RELATIVELY SENIOR GROUP OF CHINESE OFFICIALS TO
COME TO THE UNITED STATES, AND THE ATMOSPHERE, OF
COURSE, WAS MUCH WORSE THEN THAN IT WILL BE DURING HIS
UPCOMING VISIT. AND HE DISARMED HIS CRITICS WITH WIT
AND HIS OWN STRONG PERSONALITY. I THINK THAT'S A REAL
PLUS FOR CHINA.
// END ACT //
AMBASSADOR JAMES LILLEY SAYS ZHU RONGJI IS DETERMINED TO PUT THE
U-S/CHINA RELATIONSHIP BACK ON TRACK, AND HE PREDICTS MR. ZHU IS
LIKELY TO MAKE A FAIRLY GOOD IMPRESSION. (SIGNED)
NEB/SMN/KL
31-Mar-99 11:25 AM EST (1625 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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