DATE=3/18/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42889
TITLE=MISSILE DEFENSE/ U-S & CHINA
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: WHEN CHINESE PRIME MINISTER ZHU RONGJI COMES TO
WASHINGTON NEXT MONTH HE IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT BEIJING'S STRONG
OPPOSITION TO U-S PLANS FOR NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ANTI-MISSILE
SYSTEMS. (OPT) THE PROPOSAL FOR A NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM
RECEIVED CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL THIS WEEK. (END OPT) V-O-A'S STEPHANIE
MANN DISCUSSED CHINA'S OBJECTIONS TO THE ASIAN PLAN WITH AMERICAN
SECURITY SPECIALISTS AND HAS THIS REPORT.
TEXT: THE UNITED STATES IS CONSULTING WITH ITS ASIAN ALLIES --
JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA -- ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF IMPLEMENTING A
MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM FOR EAST ASIA. THE PURPOSE WOULD BE TO
TRACK AND DESTROY ANY MISSILES THAT MIGHT BE LAUNCHED AGAINST U-S
TARGETS OR AMERICAN ALLIES.
THE PLAN WOULD INVOLVE TWO LEVELS OF ANTI-MISSILE DEFENSE. ONE
FOR LOCAL AREAS WOULD OPERATE INSIDE THE ATMOSPHERE, USING
PATRIOT MISSILES. AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL OPERATION WOULD USE
WHAT IS CALLED "THAAD," OR THEATER HIGH ALTITUDE AIR DEFENSE
SYSTEMS.
CHINA, NORTH KOREA AND RUSSIA HAVE CRITICIZED THE PLAN. THE MOST
OUTSPOKEN ATTACKS HAVE COME FROM CHINA. DEFENSE POLICY
RESEARCHER BRUCE BENNETT DISMISSES CHINA'S CONCERN THAT IT WOULD
BE THE TARGET OF THE ANTI-MISSILE PROGRAM.
// BENNETT ACT ONE //
THE KIND OF MISSILE THAT'S PLANNED FOR DEFENSIVE
PURPOSES IS NOT INTENDED TO BE USED OFFENSIVELY. THAT
IS, A PATRIOT OR A "THAAD" SYSTEM IS NOT INTENDED TO
FIRE AT CHINA AND HURT CHINA. IT'S SIMPLY INTENDED TO
FIRE AT CHINESE MISSILES AND STOP THEM FROM HURTING THE
COUNTRY THEY'RE AIMED AT.
// END ACT //
MR. BENNETT IS A SPECIALIST IN COUNTER PROLIFERATION AND FORCE
IMPROVEMENT AT THE RAND CORPORATION DEFENSE RESEARCH FIRM IN
CALIFORNIA. EVEN THOUGH THE THEATER ANTI-MISSILE PROGRAM WOULD
NOT BE AIMED AT ANY PARTICULAR COUNTRY, MR. BENNETT SAYS PEOPLE
IN THE REGION SEE THE NEED BECAUSE OF THE ACTIONS OF PARTICULAR
COUNTRIES.
// BENNETT ACT TWO //
FROM A TAIWANESE OR A JAPANESE PERSPECTIVE, ABSOLUTELY
THESE SYSTEMS ARE WARRANTED. THEY'RE THE ONLY FORM OF
DEFENSE, OR THE PRIMARY FORM OF DEFENSE, THEY WOULD HAVE
AGAINST THE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT BALLISTIC MISSILE
CAPABILITIES THAT CHINA IS FIELDING.
// END ACT //
ANOTHER ANALYST, STEPHEN YATES, SAYS IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL
THREAT POSED BY CHINA, NORTH KOREA IS THE HIGHEST PRIORITY THREAT
TO PEOPLE IN EAST ASIA. HE POINTS TO NORTH KOREA'S LAUNCH LAST
YEAR OF A ROCKET OVER JAPANESE TERRITORY.
MR. YATES, WHO IS WITH THE ASIAN STUDIES CENTER OF THE HERITAGE
FOUNDATION, CHALLENGES CHINA'S CRITICISM THAT A THEATER MISSILE
DEFENSE SYSTEM WOULD BE A THREAT TO REGIONAL STABILITY. CHINA
HAS SAID IF TAIWAN WERE INCLUDED IN THE ANTI-MISSILE PLAN, THAT
WOULD BE AN INFRINGEMENT OF CHINESE SOVEREIGNTY. MR. YATES
REPLIES THAT JAPAN, TAIWAN AND SOUTH KOREA HAVE A SOVEREIGN RIGHT
TO BE ABLE TO DEFEND THEMSELVES AGAINST A MISSILE ATTACK.
// YATES ACT ONE //
THERE'S NOTHING ABOUT A MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM THAT IS
OFFENSIVE IN NATURE. THE ONLY THING THESE SYSTEMS CAN
DO IS DESTROY INCOMING MISSILES. IF YOU DON'T LAUNCH
THOSE MISSILES, THESE MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS DO
NOTHING. IF YOU DON'T INTEND TO INVADE, HOW CAN YOU
COMPLAIN THAT OTHER REGIONAL ACTORS ARE SPENDING THEIR
MONEY ON A SYSTEM THEY WON'T NEED? REALLY, I THINK
THERE IS NO BASIS FOR THIS COMPLAINT FROM THE CHINESE
SIDE, AND IT'S JUST OLD RHETORIC THAT IS COMING UP AND
NEEDS TO BE RESPONDED TO.
// END ACT //
/// OPT /// ANOTHER CHINESE CRITICISM OF THE PROPOSED THEATER
MISSILE DEFENSE PLAN IS THAT IT WOULD SPREAD MISSILE TECHNOLOGY
TO OTHER COUNTRIES AND VIOLATE NON-PROLIFERATION AGREEMENTS. MR.
YATES DISMISSES THAT CHARGE, TOO.
// YATES ACT TWO // // OPT ACT //
IN TERMS OF MISSILE DEFENSE VIOLATING THE KIND OF
PROLIFERATION STANDARDS BY HAVING TO SHARE MISSILE
TECHNOLOGY, THE ONLY TECHNOLOGY THAT WOULD BE EXCHANGED
IS THE TECHNOLOGY NECESSARY FOR DESTROYING A MISSILE,
NOT FOR DEVELOPING A MISSILE. AND THERE PROBABLY WOULD
BE AN EXCHANGE OF INFORMATION ON THE TRAJECTORY AND THE
COMPOSITION OF DIFFERENT MISSILES, BUT I SUSPECT THAT
GOES ON NOW AND THAT REALLY ISN'T A PROLIFERATION
CONCERN.
// END ACT // // END OPT ACT //
STEPHEN YATES SAYS THE ONLY CHINESE ARGUMENT THAT MAY HAVE SOME
LEGITIMACY IS THAT A MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM MAY START AN ARMS
RACE. HE EXPLAINS THAT MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS CAN BE EFFECTIVE
AGAINST A LIMITED NUMBER OF MISSILES BUT CAN BE OVERWHELMED BY
SIMULTANEOUS LAUNCHES OF MULTIPLE MISSILES. SO, HE SAYS,
STRATEGIC COMPETITORS MAY BEGIN TO STOCKPILE HUGE NUMBERS OF
MISSILES IN HOPES OF DEVELOPING AN ADVANTAGE OVER AN ANTI-MISSILE
SYSTEM.
// REST OPTIONAL //
WHEN CHINESE PRIME MINISTER ZHU RONGJI VISITS WASHINGTON IN EARLY
APRIL, HE IS EXPECTED TO STRESS CHINA'S OPPOSITION TO THE MISSILE
DEFENSE SYSTEM. MR. YATES SAYS THAT ISSUE AS WELL AS THE CURRENT
CONTROVERSY OVER CHINESE ESPIONAGE AT A U-S NUCLEAR LABORATORY
ARE LIKELY TO BE SENSITIVE TOPICS OF DISCUSSION BETWEEN MR. ZHU
AND TOP U-S OFFICIALS. AND MR. YATES SAYS U-S CONCERN OVER THE
ESPIONAGE CASE IS BOOSTING CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE MISSILE
DEFENSE PROPOSAL.
// YATES ACT THREE //
I SUSPECT THAT THERE'S MORE OR LESS CONVENTIONAL WISDOM
THAT CHINA'S MISSILE PROGRAM HAS BEEN IMPROVED BY THIS
ESPIONAGE. AND REALLY THE APPROPRIATE RESPONSE IS NOT
NECESSARILY TO SAY THAT CHINA IS EVIL BECAUSE IT
CONDUCTS ESPIONAGE. THAT'S MORE OR LESS NORMAL BEHAVIOR
IN THE WORLD. THE UNITED STATES CONDUCTS ESPIONAGE.
MANY COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD, INCLUDING OUR ALLIES,
CONDUCT ESPIONAGE AGAINST US. WITNESS THE RECENT
CONTROVERSY OVER AN ISRAELI SPY. AND SO, THE
APPROPRIATE RESPONSE IS TO SAY, 'OKAY, IF THIS
TECHNOLOGY HAS BEEN RELEASED, OR HAS GONE OUT INTO THE
WORLD, THE GOVERNMENT HAS AN ADDED RESPONSIBILITY TO
DEFEND AGAINST ITS USE.'
// END ACT //
AND MR. YATES SAYS MISSILE DEFENSE IS THE APPROPRIATE RESPONSE TO
LEAKS OF NUCLEAR INFORMATION THAT HELP OTHER COUNTRIES DEVELOP
THEIR MISSILE TECHNOLOGY. (SIGNED)
NEB/SMN/GE
18-Mar-99 12:13 PM EST (1713 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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