DATE=2/25/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-42706
TITLE=U-S / CHINA RELATIONS
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: SECRETARY OF STATE MADELEINE ALBRIGHT IS TO HOLD TALKS IN
BEIJING EARLY NEXT WEEK (MARCH 1-2), IN PREPARATION FOR CHINESE
PRIME MINISTER ZHU RONGJI'S SCHEDULED VISIT TO WASHINGTON IN
APRIL. ANALYSTS SAY MS. ALBRIGHT'S TRIP IS COMING AT A TIME OF
TURBULENCE IN U-S / CHINESE RELATIONS, AS V-O-A'S STEPHANIE MANN
REPORTS.
TEXT: AFTER PRESIDENT CLINTON VISITED CHINA LAST JUNE, BILATERAL
RELATIONS WERE DESCRIBED AS BACK ON TRACK AFTER SEVERAL YEARS OF
TENSION AND DISTRUST. THE DIRECTOR OF ASIAN STUDIES AT THE
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS, ROBERT MANNING, SAYS THAT
DESCRIPTION IS NO LONGER VALID.
// MANNING ACT ONE //
I THINK THE EUPHORIA FROM THE CLINTON VISIT HAS LONG
FADED AND THAT BOTH SIDES ARE EXTREMELY CONCERNED THAT
THE WHOLE RELATIONSHIP IS SORT OF LOSING AIRSPEED AND
ALTITUDE VERY QUICKLY (DETERIORATING).
// END ACT //
MR. MANNING SAYS CLINTON ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS RAISED
EXPECTATIONS ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIP WHICH NOW CAN NOT BE MET.
// MANNING ACT TWO //
THEY GAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT THEY HAD DECIDED THEY
WANTED THIS GOOD RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA AND WE'RE GOING
TO BUILD THIS STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP AND ALL THESE SORT
OF THINGS AND THERE REALLY ISN'T A BASIS FOR IT. ...
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME IN 50 YEARS WHEN THE RELATIONSHIP
HAS HAD NO STRATEGIC UNDERPINNING. AFTER 1949, WE HAD
MONOLITHIC COMMUNISM. THEN FROM THE KISSINGER OPENING
ON (IN 1972), WE HAD A STRATEGIC TRIANGLE. AND FROM
(19)89 ON, WE HAVE NOTHING.
// END ACT //
CHINA SPECIALIST RONALD MONTAPERTO AGREES THERE ARE MANY PROBLEMS
IN THE SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONSHIP. THEY RANGE FROM TRADE ISSUES
TO REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIC CONCERNS.
MR. MONTAPERTO, A SENIOR RESEARCH PROFESSOR AT THE NATIONAL
DEFENSE UNIVERSITY IN WASHINGTON, SAYS NEGOTIATIONS OVER CHINA'S
ACCESSION TO THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION HAVE BEEN GOING ON FOR
ABOUT A DECADE. (OPT) CHINA WANTS TO BE ADMITTED WITH THE
PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT ACCORDED THE WORLD'S POOREST COUNTRIES,
BUT U-S OFFICIALS SAY CHINA'S STATUS AS A LEADING EXPORTER MAKES
IT INELIGIBLE. (END OPT) MR. MONTAPERTO SAYS THE TWO SIDES MAY BE
ABLE TO AGREE ON A TIMETABLE FOR CHINA'S EVENTUAL ADMISSION TO
THE W-T-O, BUT HE DOES NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE AGREEMENT IN TIME
FOR PRIME MINISTER ZHU'S TRIP TO WASHINGTON.
IN ADDITION, PROFESSOR MONTAPERTO SAYS THE U-S TRADE DEFICIT WITH
CHINA -- NOW AT 57 BILLION DOLLARS -- CONTINUES TO GROW AND
PRESENT A PROBLEM FOR THE RELATIONSHIP.
IN ADDITION TO ECONOMIC ISSUES, DIFFERENCES OVER HUMAN RIGHTS ARE
A PERENNIAL PROBLEM BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES. BUT THE
ANALYSTS SAY IT IS IMPORTANT THAT BOTH SIDES CONTINUE TO EXCHANGE
VIEWS ON THE SUBJECT.
// OPT // ROBERT MANNING SAYS CHINA'S ONGOING CRACKDOWN AGAINST
DISSIDENTS TRYING TO FORM AN OPPOSITION POLITICAL PARTY RAISES
QUESTIONS ABOUT BEIJING'S SINCERITY IN SIGNING INTERNATIONAL
AGREEMENTS. AFTER ALL, HE SAYS CHINA JUST LAST YEAR SIGNED THE
INTERNATIONAL COVENANT ON CIVIL AND POLITICAL RIGHTS. PROFESSOR
MONTAPERTO SAYS HE IS CONCERNED THAT WITH INCREASED ECONOMIC
PROBLEMS, CHINA MAY EXPERIENCE MORE LABOR AND SOCIAL UNREST AND
MAY ACT SWIFTLY TO QUELL ANY DISTURBANCES. HE SAYS THAT IS BOUND
TO HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR U-S / CHINA RELATIONS. // END OPT //
ON GEO-STRATEGIC ISSUES, PROFESSOR MONTAPERTO CALLS CHINA'S
DEPLOYMENT OF MISSILES IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT AN EXTREMELY
DISTURBING DEVELOPMENT. HE NOTES THAT CHINA BELIEVES THE TAIWAN
ISSUE IS AN INTERNAL QUESTION, BUT HE SAYS BEIJING MUST
UNDERSTAND THAT IMPLICATIONS OF ANY SOLUTION WILL AFFECT THE
REGION AND U-S/CHINA RELATIONS.
AND THEN, PROFESSOR MONTAPERTO SAYS, THERE IS THE QUESTION OF
CHINA'S APPROACH TO THE ISSUE OF NORTH KOREA.
// MONTAPERTO ACT ONE //
PEOPLE ARE BEGINNING TO WONDER ABOUT CHINESE RELUCTANCE
TO JOIN WITH THE UNITED STATES MORE OBVIOUSLY AND MORE
STRONGLY IN TACKLING THE PROBLEM ON THE KOREAN
PENINSULA. YOU KNOW, WE HAD ALWAYS THOUGHT THAT OUR
INTERESTS AND CHINESE INTERESTS OVERLAP ON THE
PENINSULA. NOW WE ARE FACING CERTAIN PROBLEMS THERE
THAT REQUIRE JOINT ACTION AND JOINT SOLUTIONS, AND THE
CHINESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE WILLING TO JOIN WITH US ON
THAT.
// END ACT //
// OPT // MR. MONTAPERTO IS REFERRING TO U-S CONCERNS THAT NORTH
KOREA MAY BE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR WEAPONS, DESPITE
ASSURANCES IT HAD STOPPED, AND CONCERNS THAT CHINA MAY BE HELPING
PYONGYANG WITH ITS SATELLITE AND MISSILE LAUNCHING PROGRAMS. //
END OPT //
ROBERT MANNING SAYS SOME OTHER INTERNATIONAL ISSUES HIGHLIGHT THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND BEIJING. MR. MANNING SAYS THE
UNITED STATES MAY EXPECT CHINA'S COOPERATION, BUT ON SOME
QUESTIONS, HE SAYS, BEIJING HAS A VERY DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE.
// MANNING ACT THREE //
FOR EXAMPLE, KOSOVO. WHEN THE SECRETARY OF STATE SAYS
SOVEREIGNTY DOESN'T QUITE MATTER SO MUCH ANYMORE. IF
I'M SITTING IN BEIJING, WHAT AM I THINKING ABOUT TIBET
AND XINJIANG AND TAIWAN? ON WHAT BASIS ARE WE
INTERVENING IN KOSOVO, WHICH IS A PROVINCE FORMERLY OF
YUGOSLAVIA? I DON'T THINK WE THINK ABOUT THE IMPACT.
IT MAKES EVERYTHING A LITTLE MORE VOLATILE.
// END ACT //
// OPT // THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND BEIJING IS
DELICATE, PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE FREQUENT DIFFERENCES OF OPINION
BETWEEN THE U-S ADMINISTRATION AND THE CONGRESS. PROFESSOR
MONTAPERTO SAYS SOME MEMBERS OF CONGRESS HAVE ALWAYS BEEN
SKEPTICAL OF U-S TIES WITH BEIJING.
// OPT MONTAPERTO ACT TWO //
THAT WILLINGNESS TO BE SKEPTICAL AND CRITICAL IS MUCH
MORE WIDESPREAD WITHIN THE CONGRESS THAN IT HAS BEEN,
SO THAT ANY DEAL OR ANY DECLARATION MADE BY THE
ADMINISTRATION ON THE OCCASION OF THE PREMIER'S VISIT
WILL BE EXAMINED VERY VERY CAREFULLY BY THE CONGRESS.
AND IT WILL HAVE TO PASS MUSTER. I'M NOT CERTAIN IT'S
POSSIBLE TO CRAFT THE KINDS OF STATEMENTS THAT WILL DO
THAT.
// END ACT // END OPT //
(OPT) ONE ISSUE THAT ESPECIALLY CONCERNS THE CONGRESS IS U-S
TECHNOLOGY TRANSFERS TO CHINA AND POSSIBLE CHINESE MISUSE OF THAT
TECHNOLOGY. (END OPT)
ROBERT MANNING SAYS, IN ORDER TO GET BEYOND THE CURRENT TENSION,
CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES MUST BE WILLING TO ACCEPT THAT THEY
WILL HAVE DIFFERENCES ON SOME CRITICAL ISSUES -- EVEN AS THEY
WORK TO ELIMINATE DIFFERENCES ON OTHERS. (SIGNED)
NEB/SMN/KL
25-Feb-99 12:12 PM EST (1712 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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