| < | | | The Chinese space program's Long March 2F rocket is seen at the Jiuquan space center in the Gobi Desert. Such a rocket could put humans into space, experts say. | | | China sets sights on outer space | | Beijing plans rocket test
as precursor to manned
space flight, sources say | | By Robert Windrem
and Alan Boyle
MSNBC |
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| | | Sept. 28 — China plans to launch a large unmanned space capsule “very soon” and return it safely to Earth in what U.S. intelligence officials and space policy experts say is a major step toward human space flight. The sources told MSNBC that a manned Chinese space flight could be mounted as early as next year. |
FORTY YEARS after the start of the first space race, putting a human into orbit still ranks as the ultimate badge of technological prowess and national prestige. Currently, there are only two members of the club: the United States and Russia.
Some experts expected Beijing to join them in dramatic fashion on Oct. 1, the 50th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. But in the past few months, expectations for China’s top-secret human space program, known as Project 921, have been lowered somewhat.
“Based on what we are seeing, we expect a launch of an unmanned capsule — the model for their manned space program,” one U.S. official told MSNBC on condition of anonymity. “We expect them to do it very soon. It is possible it could take place before Oct. 1, but it might be a few days later.”
Most observers say the Chinese delays have to do with politics as well as physics.
“If the launch fails on Oct. 1, you damage National Day, and they probably don’t want to do that,” the official said. Instead, the Chinese could time the rocket launch to take place during the International Astronautical Federation’s annual congress, which begins Oct. 4 in Amsterdam.
As for the first launch of Chinese astronauts, known as “taikonauts,” the official said Beijing was “still hoping for next year ... unless they have a failure, which of course could move it back.”
SHORT-RUN SNAGS
China’s current hopes rest on a rocket known as the Long March 2F, experts say. The rocket is thought to be capable of generating more than 1 million pounds of thrust, ranking between Russia’s Soyuz launch vehicle and America’s 1960s-era Saturn 1 missile.
The Long March 2F would be launched from the Chinese equivalent of Cape Canaveral, at Jiuquan in the Gobi Desert. U.S. officials expect the unmanned capsule to be sent up and returned to Earth to test re-entry techniques.
Although preparations for the launch have been veiled in secrecy, photographs of the Long March 2F and the Jiuquan facility have emerged in recent months, primarily on Internet sites that track space exploration.
There have also been reports of technical difficulties, including rumors of a propellant explosion at Jiuquan.
“This is a challenging and risky undertaking,” said John Pike, a policy analyst at the Washington-based Federation of American Scientists. “It’s almost impossible to write a true sentence that has the word ‘space’ in it without using the word ‘delay’ as well.”
Pike and a colleague of his said there was little reason for the Chinese to speed up their program.
“It’s about what I anticipated,” said Charles Vick, senior research analyst at the federation’s space defense policy office. “They would be very foolish not to run several flight tests before they launch it manned.”
Recent news reports from China have pushed back the official timetable for human flight to 2005, and although Vick said the first flight could come sooner than that, he doubted whether any taikonauts could be ready to fly before 2001.
“I would expect another year and a half at least before we see any possibility of them flying manned,” he said.
In the past few months, China’s political incentive for putting humans in space has decreased, said John Pike, another space policy expert at the Federation of American Scientists. Some Chinese officials may have thought a bold move into orbit would open the way for Sino-American cooperation in space and a leading role on the International Space Station, Pike said. But the rising controversy over Chinese spying at U.S. research facilities has killed any such hopes.
Thus, China’s human space program “has become a low political priority” in the short run, Pike said. He noted that the space program’s revised timetable — calling for a manned flight by 2005 — would match up well with “the time frame in which the current unpleasantness might be expected to exhaust itself.”
LONG-RUN IMPACT
But in the long run, the Chinese space program could have an impact far beyond public relations.
“Their programs have had remote sensing, photo reconnaissance, meteorology, communications and military operations as priorities, not propaganda,” he said.
Research analyst Vick said “the manned space program does represent potentially what looks like the development of a human-based photo reconnaissance program.” Successes in space would also show over the long run that the Chinese “are able to compete (technologically) and be a part of international programs for their own purposes.”
Such a view was supported by a recent Pentagon report, acknowledging that international prestige was a factor behind China’s space program but also noting that “manned space efforts could contribute to improved military space programs in the 2010-2020 time frame.”
Diagrams and artist’s conceptions related to Project 921 indicate that the Chinese are considering the full complement of space vehicles — including a space station based on Russian designs.
“Early in the next century, the Chinese expect to have a ‘space plane’ and a lunar lander. A trip to Mars is also being considered,” said William C. Triplett, co-author of “Year of the Rat,” a book on Chinese attempts to obtain Western military technology.
“All of that has military significance,” he said.
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| China's space signals |
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| More signs that Beijing is serious about space: |
| • | Chinese-Russian cooperation: The Chinese have bought rocket engines as well as Soyuz space components from Moscow. Two Chinese visitors have gone through astronaut training in Russia. Click here for more on the Chinese-Russian connection |
| • | Satellites: China has conducted 16 successful flights of its recoverable satellite technology, with one failure since the 1970s. Many of the spacecraft have been spy satellites. The latest model weighs nearly 3 tons and can stay in orbit for 15 days. |
| • | Biological research: The Chinese launched dogs and mice on suborbital flights in the mid-1960s. In 1990, it sent up a "biosat" carrying 60 plants and animals - and recovered them safely. |
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Robert Windrem is an NBC News investigative producer. Alan Boyle is science editor for MSNBC on the Internet.
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