CHINESE MILITARY BUILDUP IN THE 1990'S (Senate - November 20, 1993) Mr. PRESSLER. Mr. President, China today faces a lower military threat than at any time in the past 150 years. Yet, that is about to change. China is the only declared nuclear power in the world that has been increasing its military spending. By some estimates, Chinese military spending may have doubled in the past 5 years.
Anytime a nondemocratic regime markedly increases its military spending it should be a matter of concern for our defense planners. In the case of China, we must look beyond the raw numbers to four prime questions:
First, what weapons systems is China intending to produce?
Second, what outside assistance is China receiving?
Third, what are China's capabilities and intentions?
Fourth, what are the implications of these developments for our defense planning and arms control goals?
Mr. President, recently the Western press has begun to ask these questions. They have found very disturbing preliminary answers. For example, on November 9, the Los Angeles Times carried an extensive article suggesting that the Chinese are attempting to produce their own versions of the Russian SS-24 and SS-25 mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles. The SS-24 can carry up to 10 nuclear warheads, each of which is five times the size of the first atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, and can put them within 200 meters of a target more than 6,000 nautical miles away. The SS-25 is a road mobile ICBM with an even larger warhead, but with the same accuracy as the SS-24.
There is a reason why China is building Soviet-style weaponry. The Chinese apparently are getting help from former Soviet sources. On October 14, the Wall Street Journal reported, `weapons designs and mathematical modeling work are being sent to China by electronic mail from Russian weapons laboratories.' The November 12 issue of the Washington Times reported that Russian experts are supplying China with `technology for triggering nuclear weapons.'
The November 16 New York Times reported the existence of a Chinese military strategy book, published this year, which identifies the United States as China's principal future military adversary. This book outlines various war scenarios including the invasion of Taiwan, `War on the Korean Peninsula and China's seizing of oilfields in the South China Sea.'
Mr. President, all Americans sincerely hope that by the end of this decade, if not sooner, China will be both prosperous and democratic. China is well on the road to prosperity. However, there is no guarantee that democracy in China will occur. The implications of a new non-democratic entrant onto the world scene with modern, nuclear-tipped ICBM's are ominous. China did, in fact, first explode a nuclear weapon in 1964 but its delivery systems are 1960's vintage at best. Obtaining the technology to produce their own versions of the SS-24 and SS-25 would amount to an elevator ride straight up for Chinese strategic weapons capabilities.
Therefore, I have written to the distinguished chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senator Pell, and the distinguished ranking member, Senator Helms, asking that, as a matter of high priority, the committee hold extensive hearing as soon as Congress reconvenes on Chinese military capabilities and their implications for arms control.
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that articles from the Los Angeles Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Times, and New York Times, as well as my letter to the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, be printed in the Record.
There being no objection, the material was ordered to be printed in the Record, as follows:
From the Los Angeles Times, Nov. 9, 1993
[FROM THE LOS ANGELES TIMES, NOV. 9, 1993] China Upgrading Nuclear Arms, Experts Say Beijing Is Also Developing New Missile Systems, Including Better ICBM's, To Deliver the Warheads, They Believe.
(BY JIM MANN) When China carried out an underground nuclear test Oct. 5, its action was widely perceived as a political message, a gesture of defiance aimed at President Clinton and the U.S. Congress.
Many believed, as one international human rights activist put it, that China was `thumbing its nose at the United States'--particularly since the 90-kiloton blast came a scant two weeks after Beijing's campaign for the 2000 Olympic Games, for which Washington had little enthusiasm, ended in humiliating defeat.
But in the month since then, the small coterie of U.S. government experts and scholars who study the Chinese People's Liberation Army and its nuclear weapons program have concluded that China conducted the nuclear test for military purposes--ones that had little to do with the touchy state of relations between Washington and Beijing.
`It's clear to me that the test was not done for political reasons,' says one Pentagon official. The test broke a yearlong international moratorium on nuclear testing that the Clinton Administration had hoped would continue.
Rather, the official explained, last month's explosion at China's Lop Nor testing site in the Xinjiang region was part of a series of tests in which the PLA is rushing to develop `follow-on systems' for its strategic nuclear forces.
`The purpose was definitely modernization (of nuclear weapons),' said Bonnie Glaser, a Washington-based consultant on Chinese defense strategy. `The Chinese are moving ahead.'
So what is China doing?
`In the late 1980s, the Chinese decided they needed serious testing and development to bring their strategic nuclear deterrent up to international standards,' explained Ronald S. Montaperto, a former Defense Intelligence Agency specialist now working at the Institute for National Strategic Studies.
`To do that, they needed some new warheads,' he said. `They wanted something that was smaller, more deployable, more accurate.'
Specialists note that China also carried out two underground nuclear tests in 1992, one of them a one-megaton blast that was China's largest ever and was 500 times the size of the bomb that exploded at Hiroshima. China has carried out 39 nuclear tests since it acquired the bomb in 1964 and has been testing at the rate of about once a year in the past decade.
Along with the new warheads, these specialists say, China has been developing new missile systems, including better intercontinental ballistic missiles.
`The Chinese are moving from these first- or second-generation liquid-fuel missiles to more mobile, more accurate solid-fuel missile,' says Timothy McCarthy, senior analyst at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.
This has happened with every nuclear missile program in the world, McCarthy notes. The pattern is to move toward missiles with solid fuel, which can be more easily moved from place to place, and with better guidance systems. And new missile systems require new warheads as well.
McCarthy, who also writes for Jane's Intelligence Review, said he believes China is developing a new ICBM similar to the Soviet SS-25. It would be a more accurate version of China's current ICBM, the DF-5, which has a range of about 8,000 miles and could reach the United States.
Specialists on weapons proliferation also link China's nuclear tests to missile programs. `The best explanation for why they are testing that I can figure out is that they need smaller warheads for new multiple-warhead missiles that they are developing,' says Henry Sokolski, a former Pentagon official.
China's long-range missiles and ICBMs, first tested in 1970 and 1971, were originally planned to be able to reach Guam and the continental United States respectively. But many of these were eventually targeted on the Soviet Union--particularly after border skirmishes broke out and China and the Soviet Union came close to war in 1969.
Asked whether some of the Chinese ICBMs once aimed at Soviet territory have now been aimed at the United States, a Pentagon specialist replied, `I don't think there's been any major shift.'
But other experts on Chinese nuclear forces say they were designed with the United States in mind and that they must be a factor in American military planning.
`They (the Chinese missiles) can reach Kansas City,' notes Chong-pin Lin of the American Enterprise Institute. `And with the improvement of China's strategic deterrent, China can complicate the calculus of Washington if the United States should want to intervene militarily somewhere around China's periphery.'
If it neutralizes the possibility of American military intervention in Asia, Lin believes, China can use its conventional weapons to intimidate its neighbors.
`China may never use the nuclear weapons, but the upgrading of its nuclear arsenal will be translated into a threat in foreign policy, economics and other non-military areas,' he says.
Lin is particularly concerned about the possibility of nuclear blackmail by China in its dealings with Taiwan. In contrast, Pentagon planners, who are responsible for worrying first of all about the protection of the United States, find less cause for alarm in China's developing nuclear program.
`China's nuclear weapons are a deterrent,' says a Defense Department official. `If potential enemies have nuclear weapons, you need them to be able to retaliate. China's nuclear arsenal is modest in terms of numbers, in comparison with that of the United States or the former Soviet Union. And they (the Chinese) are not preparing to have a run at matching our numbers as we come down (under existing arms-control treaties).'
All the experts agree that China is rushing to finish up its current series of nuclear tests because it can see the momentum building around the world for a treaty that imposes a comprehensive ban on nuclear testing.
`Chinese military leaders know they will soon be under pressure to get into international arms control. They need this technological advance (in their weapons program), so they don't lose anything when a freeze goes into effect,' Montaperto says.
Last July, President Clinton announced that the United States would halt nuclear testing for another 15 months, so long as other nuclear powers observed the informal moratorium. And in a September speech to the U.N. General Assembly, he publicly called upon China to abandon what U.S. intelligence officials had reported were preparations for a new nuclear test.
Some of the U.S. China hands believe Clinton's action was unwise because the most the United States could ever have expected from the Beijing leadership was a delay, not cancellation, of the nuclear test.
`I thought it was particularly clumsy of this Administration to have the President call upon China at the United Nations for the nuclear test not to take place,' says Douglas Paal, former head of Asian affairs for the George Bush Administration's National Security Council. `Anyone who knows China knows that would guarantee the test would take place.'
Within hours after the Oct. 5 explosion in China, Clinton ordered the Energy Department to make preparations for the United States to resume underground nuclear testing next year. He stopped short of saying for sure that the American tests will start up again. It was a reminder of the extent to which China is now helping set America's foreign policy agenda.
-- -- From the Washington Times, Nov. 12, 1993
[FROM THE WASHINGTON TIMES, NOV. 12, 1993] Missile Buildup in China Could Threaten United States
(BY MARTIN SIEFF) China is engaged in a long-term strategic weapons buildup to achieve superpower status, which eventually could threaten the United States, defense and intelligence sources say.
The buildup involves far closer military relations with Russia and will give Beijing the capability to threaten the U.S. mainland, defense experts said.
`There is no question it enhances their future strategic threat to the United States,' said a top U.S. expert on China.
China's buildup is focused on the development of a force of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that would have the range and accuracy to hit major Russian and American population centers and military targets, the defense sources said.
U.S. defense analysts take this development seriously because they believe 50 to 60 percent of China's current ICBM arsenal, which is far more modest and inaccurate, is still aimed at American targets, the sources said.
The Clinton administration seeks to shore up its deteriorating relations with Beijing. As part of this effort, Charles Freeman, assistant secretary of defense for regional security, visited Beijing last month to promote closer relations between the Pentagon and the People's Liberation Army.
But China's relations with Russia are a lot closer. The two giant nations signed a five-year military cooperation agreement yesterday. The pact primarily provides for exchanges of experts and other personnel, said Wu Jianmin, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman.
Relations between the two militaries are already very close. China last year bought about $1.8 billion in arms from Russia, including 26 Sukhoi-27 fighters and 144 air-to-surface missiles.
China has also hired scores, possibly hundreds, of Russian scientists from former Soviet missile and nuclear programs, U.S. intelligence sources said.
`The Russian cooperation with China is one of the most important issues which is not being openly addressed by the [Clinton] administration. The Russians and the Chinese are very secretive and keep it very quiet,' said James R. Lilley, former U.S. ambassador to China and South Korea and now with the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative policy group.
`The Chinese and Russian military establishments are hand in golve. They have intimate relations with each other. Their cooperation is all over the place. It's big stuff,' he said.
`China has been buying nuclear and missile know-how from the former Soviet republics, especially Russia. It is now working on a mobile SS-25 intercontinental ballistic missile,' said Henry Sokolski, a Pentagon officer in charge of non-proliferation in the Bush administration.
`The labs in Russia are run by former Communists, many of whom feel comfortable dealing with the Chinese. They can make some money that way and get to play around again,' Mr. Sokolski said.
`The Russians have all these scientists getting $50 a month. The Chinese can offer them $3,000 a month, chaufeur-driven cars and a two-year contract,' Mr. Lilley said.
Intelligence community sources told the same story.
`It's in the intelligence files,' one source said. `What they're doing [is] getting the latest techniques of submarine nuclear propulsion. They're trying to solve their problems of launching missiles from submerged submarines.
`The kinds of stuff they are getting is very specialized: technology for triggering devices for nuclear weapons, solid rocket fuel, muffling technology for diesel submarines,' the intelligence source said.
The U.S. government is aware of the scale of traffic in former Soviet scientists going to work in China, but its efforts to stanch the flow have been unsuccessful.
`We have gone to the Russian government and said to them, `Please stop,' but I don't think they can. I don't think [Russian President Boris] Yeltsin knows what the hell they're doing,' one source said.
-- From the New York Times, Nov. 16, 1993
[FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES, NOV. 16, 1993] Chinese Military Sees the United States as a Foe
(BY PATRICK E. TYLER) Beijing, November 15: A Russian diplomat browsing through a bookstall here recently came across this title: `Can the Chinese Army Win the Next War?'
On the cover, President Jiang Zemin was quoted as saying, `We must win high-tech small-scale wars under modern conditions.' Inside, it identified the United States as China's principal military adversary in the future and sketched out eight war scenarios, including the retaking of Taiwan, war on the Korean Peninsula and China's seizing of oilfields in the South China Sea.
It was extraordinary that such a document could be published in China, which treats any discussion of military strategy, doctrine and planning as the most treasured of state secrets.
But this thin book, which was later banned and recalled by the Communist Party authorities, is now a widely circulated attraction in Beijing's diplomatic quarter.
TRYING TO SHAPE OPINION
Western officials have linked it to a general effort by some hard-line officers of the Chinese Army and their allies in retirement and in academia to mobilize public opinion against China's potential enemies.
The appearance of the book and others like it, as well as recent leaks to Hong Kong newspapers indicating major disaffection in the army over China's recent disputes with the United States, underscores the damage to Chinese-American military relations that the Clinton Administration is trying to address.
It also underscores the extent to which China's military leaders have begun to challenge the civilian authorities over the future military policy of the world's most populous country.
From interviews with diplomats here who have contact with Chinese military officials, one thing seems clear: Tempers have been flaring.
First there was the American sale of F-16 fighters to Taiwan last year, and then in August the United States imposed sanctions on China over the transfer by China of missile equipment to Pakistan. These sanctions were announced in the midst of the Yinhe episode, which turned out to be a case of mistaken intelligence in which Washington said the Chinese cargo ship Yinhe was carrying chemical-weapon ingredients to Iran. An inspection proved that it was not.
`The military was one of the institutions in China that was particularly offended by the sale of F-16's to Taiwan last year,' a Western diplomat here said. He added that there were `elements' in the Chinese military who would like their civilian leaders `to show more gumption in standing up to the United States.'
GENERAL CONFRONT PRESIDENT
A Hong Kong journal with close ties to Beijing recently carried an account of a confrontational meeting between President Jiang and his generals on Sept. 8, and this account has been taken as credible by some analysts here. Eight senior generals led by Defense Minister Chi Haotian were said to have met with Mr. Jiang to express their frustration over the `soft stance' Beijing was taking toward American `hegemonism' and `power politics.'
AN EMOTIONAL MEETING
The generals were said to have become `very excited during the meeting' and presented the President with a petition signed by 180 high-ranking officers demanding that China `take a solemn and just stand' against the United States.
Mr. Jiang was said to have calmed the generals by reminding them that since China had developed nuclear weapons in the 1960's, `we are no longer afraid of the threats and bullying of the two hegemonists,' meaning Russia and the United States. But the intensity of the encounter reflected the depth of convictions in the military.
Strong mistrust toward American intentions was also apparent from the 80-page book of military analysis that caught the eye of the Russian diplomat this fall. Though the book was written under a pen name and published by Southwest Normal University Press in Sichuan Province in June, it betrayed the knowledge and experience of a seasoned member of the Chinese military establishment, diplomats here say.
`Although at present, China does not pose a real threat strategically to the United States, the United States still considers China a hypothetical target in its regional defense strategy,' the banned analysis says. `Because of serious opposition and differences in ideology, social system and foreign policies between China and the United States, it would be impossible to improve fundamentally Sino-U.S. relations.'
-- -- From the Wall Street Journal, Oct. 14, 1993
[FROM THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, OCT. 14, 1993] U.S. Fears China's Success in Skimming Cream of Weapons Experts From Russia
(BY JOHN J. FIALKA) Washington: China's success in recruiting Russian weapons experts and acquiring nuclear and ballistic missile technology sends a shudder through the Clinton administration, which fears China's efforts will eventually enable its strategic nuclear forces to reach the U.S.
According to government officials, as many as a thousand technicians, scientists and engineers from Russia's previously top secret weapons complexes have been recruited to come to China for high salaries and reportedly lavish living allowances.
Meanwhile, Russia's system for keeping track of its weapons scientists has broken down. And a $100 million international effort, led by the U.S., to give the scientists work has been stalled, despite more than a year of preparations.
One State Department official, who asked not to be identified, called the situation `extremely unfortunate.' The Chinese are exploiting a situation where `the cream of the weapons community wasn't being paid salaries last summer,' the official said.
REQUESTS FOR DEMARCHES
Another official said several specific incidents involving the accelerated eastward flow of experts and technology have triggered requests for diplomatic protests, called demarchers, against both Russia and China, moves that were rejected by the State Department because of the current sensitivity in dealings with both countries. However, a State Department spokesman said he wasn't aware of any demarches that had been dropped.
The recruitment of weapons experts is only one aspect of China's aggressive pursuit of Russian technology, including the SS-25, Russia's most modern, mobile intercontinental ballistic missile. Chinese experts are visiting Russian defense plants, and weapons designs and mathematical modeling work are being sent to
China by electronic mail from Russian weapons laboratories. `You don't have to leave the country to be recruited,' declared one official.`In Russia, they can go recruit these guys semi-openly,' said James R. Lilley, U.S. ambassador to China and Defense Department official during the Bush administration. He said the Chinese media has reported that as many as 3,000 former Soviet experts have been recruited for salaries as high as $2,000 a month each, plus housing, a car and living expenses. `With the Chinese,' he said, `they can get cash on the barrelhead.'
A BONANZA FOR CHINESE
Mr. Lilley, now an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, a private research foundation here, called the transfer a `bonanza' for the Chinese. With Russia's help, he asserts, China's military is making a major shift from a land-based defense force to one capable of projecting military power throughout the Far East and beyond.
China's focus on more modern nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, he said, violates at least two treaties and will eventually `threaten U.S. vital interests in the Pacific.'
Chinese officials have played down their military modernization efforts, including a recent nuclear test, claiming their defense budget is a relatively tiny $7.3 billion. But Mr. Lilley claims larger amounts are hidden in other agency budgets.
Meanwhile, the Central Intelligence Agency last week told the Senate Government Affairs Committee that the Russian government's power to control the exodus of its weapons scientists has largely evaporated. `A centralized automated data system containing information on citizens who possess state secrets does not exist,' the CIA noted in a written statement.
CORRUPTED BY BLACK MARKET
Russia's Internal Affairs Ministry, which issues passports, has been overwhelmed with requests and `corrupted' by black market operators and commercial firms generating passports and visas on short notice, the CIA said.
The potential problem was anticipated by both the Bush administration and key committees in Congress in the winter of 1991. The U.S. then committed $35 million to establish centers in Moscow and Kiev that would function as job clearinghouses for former military scientists seeking commercial research work.
Though Japan, Canada and European countries later boosted the funding to nearly $70 million, objections from Russia's Parliament and from Ukraine politicians stopped the centers from opening.
The State Department official said preparatory work on the centers is completed. Citing economic desperation being faced by nuclear experts in such closed military cities as Arzamas-16 and Chelyabinsk-70, the official said, `We are really seeing the conditions now to which these centers were designed to respond.'
END
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