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Brazil is going into space

Sao Paulo ISTOE, 9 Aug 95

Brazil is going into space -- literally. The trip is more like an obstacle course than anything else, with participants ranging from countries with leading-edge technology to megabusinessmen on the order of Bill Gates, owner of Microsoft. The objective is to dominate the closest region of the cosmos--that strip through which the constellations of communication microsatellites pass. The one who can put his satellites in orbit the fastest will reach the third millennium the soonest and, of course, also earn a lot of money. In this competition, the Complete Brazilian Space Program is in a position to guarantee our country a spot on the podium. The final touches are being put on the Brazilian rocket known as the Satellite Launch Vehicle (VLS). Furthermore, commercial use of the Alcantara Launch Base, our space center in Maranhao, is increasing. NASA, which is responsible for the U.S. space program, launched 33 satellites from Alcantara in 1994 alone. That same NASA is training the man who will symbolize our presence in space. Rio de Janeiro physicist Claudio Egalon, 32 (see the interview [not included]), is very close to becoming the first Brazilian astronaut and obtaining passage on a flight on the U.S. space shuttle. Business will probably pick up even more following the announcement on Wednesday the 2d by Minister of Communications Sergio Motta that before this month is over, President Fernando Henrique Cardoso will sign a decree making it possible to expand the presence of private enterprise in the satellite sector.

The jewel of the space program is the Ecco (Equatorial Constellation Communications) Project, a spectacular plan whose budget of $450 million is being provided by the government and private enterprise. Ecco calls for launching 12 satellites into equatorial orbit to form a ring. The result will be the establishment of a cellular telephone system--with voice and data transmissions--throughout the intertropical region of the planet. Anyone located between Miami and Sao Paulo, for example, will be able to put through a call immediately to a citizen in Malaysia or India, two countries that are interested in joining the project. The nations in that intertropical region contain 40 percent of the world's population and have a combined GDP [gross domestic product] exceeding $2.5 trillion. "Imagine a paramedic on the banks of the Amazon River receiving instructions from professionals at the Clinic Hospital in Sao Paulo on how to treat a patient," says consultant Joao Vaz in Washington. Vaz is president of Brazsat (Brazilian Commercial Satellite Launch Services), a firm that has been exploiting commercial opportunities abroad for our space program.

The interesting thing is that at the start of the program, Brazil timidly chose a small market niche that is now being fought over by the countries that pioneered the conquest of space and the giants of private enterprise. Brazilian scientists specialized in low-orbiting satellites at a time when geostationary satellites were the fashion. The latter have to be carried by huge rockets such as the Russian Proton, the French Ariane, the Chinese Long March, and several U.S. models. They are all able to lift satellites weighing two metric tons into geostationary orbit at the equator. Brazil did not set its goals that high, the reason being a lack of money, know-how, and willingness to compete with such powerful rivals as the United States, the former USSR, and China. Today the entire world is concentrating on low-orbit projects. Even the big powers are being forced to reduce the size of their rockets.

Low-orbiting satellites have become the stars thanks to advances in the field of electronics, where components have become more compact and cheaper. The uses of those minisatellites are almost the same as those of their bigger cousins. Satellite TV transmissions direct to homes equipped with receiving antennas the size of a pizza are now routine. Cellular telephones are spread from Alaska to Antarctica, and the demand does not look like it will be exhausted in the near future. So much so that the richest man in the world, Bill Gates, the top man at Microsoft, has gotten a group of private firms and financial institutions together to place no fewer than 840 satellites in orbit over the next 10 years. The undertaking will require an investment of $9 billion, or six times what the Brazilians have spent on their 30-year-old space program.

The first phase of the so-called Complete Brazilian Space Program should complete its initial cycle within a year, according to the optimists, or a year and a half, according to the conservative view. That cycle began with the establishment of a launch center and a vehicle and satellite tracking station. The main launch base is in Alcantara, Maranhao, 2.5 degrees south of the equator. Tracking is done at the Barreira do Inferno base in Rio Grande do Norte. One of the big advantages of the Brazilian bases is that they are a "matched" pair, something that does not exist anywhere else in the world. The tracking station is near the Atlantic Ocean, while the launch base is to the west. That makes it possible to monitor the entire first stage of a rocket launch. This is known as the "elbow advantage," with the north and northeast regions of Brazil forming the said elbow.

Brazil has been dreaming of the stars since 1965. It is true that in the days of the military dictatorship, that dream included the development of ballistic missiles, armed perhaps with atomic bombs. Since the technology for fabricating missiles--or satellite launchers--back in the days of the Cold War was restricted to a few countries, the Brazilians were forced to find their own solutions. Over a 30-year period, the civilian and military governments have invested about $1.5 billion. During that time, the philosophy behind the undertaking has changed considerably. In 1994, the old Brazilian Commission for Space Activities (Cobae) became the Brazilian Space Agency, and its president was a civilian, Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho. Since the scandal involving participation by Brazilian scientists in the project to develop missiles for Iraqi dictator Saddam Husayn in 1991, the space program has been restricted to creating satellite launchers for scientific and commercial purposes.

Satellites

The second segment of the space mission concerns the development and production of satellites, a task coordinated by the National Institute of Space Research (INPE) in Sao Jose dos Campos. Two years ago, Brazil launched a domestically produced microsatellite weighing 64 kilograms into an orbit 764 kilometers high on board a French Ariane rocket for the purpose of collecting environmental data. That satellite is reaching the end of its useful life and is scheduled to be replaced by another satellite in the near future. The Brazilian Space Program is also involved in partnerships with other countries for the purpose of placing new satellites in orbit. One example is the China- Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS) agreement signed by China and Brazil in July 1988. Under that project, the Chinese are scheduled to launch a Brazilian environmental monitoring satellite from their base in Shanxi on board a "made in China" Long March rocket in 1996 (useful life: two years). A second satellite will follow the same path in 1997.

The real race for space gold began two years ago and will continue fiercely until the year 2000. Analysts in the telecommunications industry claim that by 2003 there will be 164 million subscribers to wireless telephone services in the United States alone. Last year the country had 33.7 million users. The firms (and countries) that achieve a place in the sun within the next few years will dominate the territory. "Brazil has everything it needs to be one of the leaders in this race. Our country has a complete space program--and a launch base in Alcantara offering many advantages," says consultant Joao Vaz. "Launches from Alcantara are from 25 to 30 percent cheaper than those from Cape Canaveral in the United States and Baikonur in Russia. Only Brazil and France, the latter with its base in Kourou, French Guiana, have those advantages," he says in conclusion.

The third segment of the initial cycle of our space program is the most sensitive because it involves the launch vehicle--the rocket. The VLS is in its final phase and is scheduled to carry a satellite into space next year. It has not yet been decided whether that satellite will collect data or be a communications satellite. But launching the VLS will mean that our country is finally dependent solely on its own resources for establishing itself in the commercial space market. The satellite could have made its debut already, but lack of money and the resistance shown by a few countries, especially the United States, slowed the process. The outlook improved when the administration promised to allocate $19 million this year for completion of the VLS.

Espionage

The history of Brazil's presence in space is dotted with cases of espionage, counterespionage, and false information planted in the domestic and foreign press. Those intrigues are fueled by the extreme nervousness that is naturally felt by the handful of countries now dominating rocket launching technology. Those countries do everything they can to keep the know-how from leaving their closed circle and falling into the hands of someone who might, for example, use rockets to launch bombs at the heads of enemies. The nations capable of building satellite launch vehicles or ballistic missiles belong to an exclusive club called the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). Its rules are strict and are aimed at making it difficult to provide other countries with technology and equipment. Brazil swears that it is going to sign the MTCR, but has not yet done so, thus causing goose pimples, chiefly in the United States. "It is necessary for our country to pass legislation enabling the government to control sales of sensitive technology. Only then will Brazil be able to gain access to the MTCR," says Brigadier General Sergio Xavier Ferolla, director of the Ministry of Air's Depede (Research and Development Department) and the man responsible for the VLS project and maintenance of the Alcantara base. "The bill has already been submitted to Congress and will probably be approved by October," he says in conclusion.

Brazil the Sinner

Even so, there are those who are suspicious of Brazil's intentions. "By absolving Brazil of its sins in the field of missile proliferation and then taking the country into the MTCR at the end of this year, the club is transforming itself into an organization that rewards such practices," says Henry Sokolski, a former U.S. Defense Department official. Currently executive director of the Non-Proliferation Policy Education Center--an NGO [nongovernmental organization] combating arms proliferation--Sokolski was speaking to THE WASHINGTON POST for an article on the alleged purchase of sensitive components that Brazil had reportedly ordered from Russia. The report was given prominent coverage in Brazilian and foreign publications and was mentioned in the U.S. Congress. The article said that "the Russians sold Brazil the technology for carbon fiber, a strong, lightweight material used in rocket engine capsules. Brazil says it wants that foreign technology for its civilian space program. But U.S. officials and authorities linked to the Brazilian space program admit that the Brazilian VLS is capable of carrying a missile armed with warheads."

Besides being in error, the story reveals the ignorance that exists concerning the Brazilian space program. "What Brazil bought from Russia on that occasion was carbon-carbon. Not carbon fiber technology, as the newspaper said. Even so, it should not have frightened anyone, considering that our country has long had 100 percent of the technology required for producing such a component," says consultant Joao Vaz. "We bought carbon- carbon from the Russians only because it was cheaper to do that than produce it in Brazil," Brigadier General Sergio Ferolla claims.

Even purchases of sensitive components by Brazil are not uncommon. In the past, the Brazilian space program has acquired materials from countries such as France (a telemetry system for tracking the satellite), Germany (whose scientists, like Americans and Russians, helped at the beginning of the project), and even the United States. The files of the U.S. Department of Commerce show that the United States has sold carbon fiber to Brazil on several occasions. In at least one of those negotiations, today's pacifist Henry Sokolski was a high-ranking official in the Department of Defense, which evaluated the transaction. There is no record of any protests at the time. In fact, the United States has never been all that hard to please when it comes to selling sensitive materials to countries not belonging to the MTCR. Documents obtained exclusively by ISTOE show dozens of exports of ammonium perchlorate through several U.S. ports to countries such as Taiwan, Israel, and South Korea. Of those, only South Korea has plans for scientific and commercial satellite launching vehicles. And none of the three belongs to the select MTCR club. "The Brazilian Government's negotiation with Russia for supplying certain materials upsets some U.S. officials because it guarantees quicker access to a stage of technology that will cancel our dependence on the United States," says Brigadier General Hugo Piva, reserve. Regarded as the father of the Brazilian space program, Piva fell out of favor with the Americans when his participation in the production of weapons for the Iraqi Government was revealed.

"Today Brazil has sizable difficulties only in connection with the VLS guidance system," says Professor Jordan O'Brian, a former official with the U.S. Space Agency who now works as a consultant to European firms in the field of low-orbiting satellites. "The problem is that because of our refusal to sell components for the Brazilian Space Program, Brazil was forced to develop the entire technology involved in the process. We should have helped the Brazilians. We lost a customer and gained a possible competitor," says O'Brian. He is right. Ammonium perchlorate, for example, is being manufactured by Petrobras and Andrade Gutierrez. "When someone finds Russians willing to show proof that the Brazilians bought sensitive materials in their country, it is a good idea not to take the matter seriously," says an FBI agent who has worked with the Moscow police over the past two years and prefers to remain anonymous. "In Russia people sell anything, including false information. It would not frighten me if they said Brazil had bought a nuclear warhead," he says. In fact, the Mexican newspaper LA RAZON printed this headline in its edition for 24 March: "Brazil Plans To Create Atomic Bomb." According to the article, our country had bought equipment and technology from the Russians. Pure nonsense.

The article in THE WASHINGTON POST also included an interview with Brian Chow of the Rand Corporation, an ultraconservative U.S. consulting firm. He said that the United States should not help countries like Brazil--whose space programs have an inherent military capability---join the MTCR. Chow's credentials for giving his opinion of the Brazilian program were acquired after he published a 1993 study of the subject. The analyst himself admits that his data on the matter dated from the 1980's and that he himself has never visited any of the installations in the industrial pole involved in the Brazilian space project. He lost an opportunity that was recently accepted by both U.S. Vice President Al Gore and Secretary of Defense William Perry. Both men praised the program, and Perry asked that Brazil be admitted to the MTCR club.

Chow argues that "the Brazilian program makes no sense commercially." Not agreeing with him are the governments of such countries as France, Italy, Argentina, Malaysia, India, China, and the United States itself, which have or soon will have joint projects with Brazil. Last week the U.S. ambassador in Brasilia, Melvyn Levitsky, announced that NASA and the Brazilian Space Agency were close to signing a new agreement covering joint action in the scientific field. The University Space Research Association, an association of universities that was established by the U.S. Academy of Sciences, sent a letter to the Brazilian Space Agency in which it expressed its enthusiasm about working with our researchers on the launching of small Brazilian satellites.

The antipathy that Chow feels toward the PEB [Brazilian Space Program] is explained in the same way by officials in the Brazilian Air Force's intelligence sector. Like THE WASHINGTON POST, Chow reportedly received information sent by John James Gilbride, Jr. (also known as John Gilbraith and Jac [as published] O'Brian). Gilbride was a spy operating in Brazil and trying to gather data on the Brazilian Space Program, as reported in ISTOE No. 1343. "The Brazilian Space Program has no enemies," says Brigadier General Ferolla. "What we have are competitors," he explains. That opinion is seconded by consultant Joao Vaz: "The U.S. Government creates obstacles to the sale of components considered sensitive. Following the big cuts in the U.S. space program, some private firms in the United States have now lost a big portion of their field of action in Brazil. What they thought was a good customer has become a competitor who has the advantage of possessing a base like Alcantara," Vaz says in conclusion. In the space race to create a wireless planet, there are no rules: everything from the use of spies and counterintelligence to alliances with enemies comes into play. After all, this is the last big commercial war of the 20th century, and the winners will be those flying in low orbit in the very near future.

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