17 January 1997
RUSSIA:
AILING YELTSIN, BELARUS 'MERGER,' RELATIONS WITH U.S.
U.S. Information Agency Office of Public Liaison
(Foreign Media Reaction Daily Digest)Commentators overseas pondered the questions of who would lead Russia should ailing President Yeltsin fail to return to his duties and how Moscow's relations with the West will be shaped by its strategies to counter NATO enlargement. Mr. Yeltsin's hospitalization with pneumonia barely 10 days after being back on the job prompted predictions among a majority of observers that his country is headed for "instability" and "paralysis." Moscow's reformist Izvestia lamented that Mr. Yeltsin's absent hand at the helm meant "a continuation of the time of uncertainty during which not a single high-placed official will be able to adopt any serious decision." Among Western observers, these concerns were accompanied by an even bigger worry: that the political vacuum would spawn a "succession race" or a fight "to the death" among contenders. Warnings that the West should prepare for the post-Yeltsin era were followed by speculation that the West is taking the measure of the most prominent challenger, former national security chief Alexander Lebed. The congressional invitation to Mr. Lebed to attend the Clinton inauguration--on the heels of the former general's visit to Germany--moved Milan's centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera to judge that "Lebed has become, for Western leaders as well, a credible alternative to the sick Yeltsin." Other analysts, noting the rise of a stop-Lebed group in Moscow, were skeptical that he would succeed the Russian leader or that he deserves to do so.
One move by the bedridden Mr. Yeltsin--his letter to his Belarussian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, suggesting a referendum over the two countries' reunification--raised hackles among European opinion-makers. Most of them interpreted this as an attempt to "blackmail" NATO on Eastward enlargement. Warsaw dailies, alarmed at the prospect of Russia's borders once again touching Poland's, featured the strongest denunciations. Insisting that such a move only made Poland's case for joining NATO stronger, right-wing Zycie declared, "The incorporation of Belarus into Russia is a further step in the reconstruction of the Soviet empire and awakening of the Great Russian nationalism." In the Moscow press, one side eagerly supported the Yeltsin proposal, with reformist Rossiyskiye Vesti holding that "feverish attempts" to enlarge NATO are "more proof that reunification with Belarus is the only right choice." Reformist weekly Obshchaya Gazeta countered, "We are not against NATO. It is important that NATO not be against us. This is exactly why trying to turn Belarus into a sort of military buffer is not only ridiculous...but contradicts our national interests."
The ushering in of the second Clinton administration and resentment over Washington's protests against Russian arms sales--most recently to Cyprus--were the other dominant topics of discussion in Russian papers. Available commentary highlighted worries about a worsening of relations with Washington, particularly because of NATO and the Albright appointment. Centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta described her as an "even more aggressive champion of U.S. interests than Yevgeny Primakov is of Russia's. So contacts and talks between the two foreign policy agencies are likely to be uncompromising and devoid of friendliness."
This survey is based on 55 reports from 15 countries, Jan. 9-16.
EDITOR: Mildred Sola NeelyEUROPE
RUSSIA: "Fighting Cold-War Stereotypes Better Than Forming New Blocs"
Vycheslav Igrunov, commenting in reformist weekly Obshchaya Gazeta (# 2, 1/16) on Yeltsin's suggestion of reunification with Belarus, pointed out: "Today we should try to enhance our security not via a new, alternative, military bloc but persistent efforts to get over Cold War stereotypes. We should convince the West to treat Russia's problems as its own and address them jointly, without isolating Russia and commissioning her to tackle global issues she is not up to. Talking to neighbors in Europe, we should avoid acting like kids making threats and seek instead to pool efforts in resolving common problems. We are not against NATO. It is important that NATO not be against us. This is exactly why trying to turn Belarus into a sort of military buffer is not only ridiculous from the military standpoint and immoral vis-a-vis our Belarus brothers but contradicts our national interests.... We don't want just any alliance with Belarus. We want a voluntary alliance not violating national accord inside that country. Russia cannot keep anyone in by force any more, as proven by events in Chechnya. As she might face economic and political separatism elsewhere, having a seat of tension in the rear would be unwise. Therefore, hasty actions of the referendum type would make no sense at all.... A new alliance must be free of the old one's flaws. It must first of all ensure democratic changes in Belarus. Otherwise, it will never be called voluntary and equal."
"U.S.: Friend Or Foe?"
Yelena Ovcharenko of reformist, youth Komsomolskaya Pravda (1/16) said: "Who are Americans, anyway: friends, strategic partners or enemies? The truth, as always, is somewhere in the middle. More evidence of that is the long months in which our chief executive's strictly medical problem grew into a political one, paralyzing his coronary arteries along with his decision-making mechanism.... The world, friends or foes, will not sit around all these months, waiting for Russia to get well. So there's no blaming 'friend Bill' for doing a great job, as the president of a great nation.
"That the White House has replaced Warren Christopher by an even more odious figure is a challenge. Albright's views of whatever lies to the east of Western Europe became ossified way back in communist times. Her other indisputable virtue, Washington believes, is that, born in what is now the Czech Republic, she, like many recent immigrants, is trying to be even more American than Americans themselves. That and her remarkable talent as a diplomat will help her look after U.S. interests better than Christopher has done so far."
"Clear Choice For True Russian Patriot, Although West Frowns On Idea"
Duma Deputy Boris Fyodorov stated on page one of reformist Rossiyskiye Vesti (1/15): "Steps toward reunification with Belarus will clearly cause acute displeasure among certain forces in the West. They fear a strong Russia in a way that is irrational and strictly genetic. Hence feverish attempts to expand NATO eastward to deter Russia (who else?). Only the blind cannot see the danger of those preparations. It is more proof that reunification with Belarus is the only right choice. We cannot let this historic chance be wasted. It is clear to any true Russian patriot."
"Who Is Russia? Partner Or Enemy?"
Reformist Izvestia (1/15) ran this comment by Maxim Yusin: "The advocates of Russia-Belarus reunification present it as a response to NATO enlargement, as an 'adequate reaction' to the West's 'hostile intrigues.' But why do our politicians think confrontation with NATO inevitable? Is the West going to attack us? Isn't it from the West that we've been asking (and receiving) economic aid? Isn't it the West which, in a most delicate way, has been treating our problems, vacillations, ill-conceived moves, and even absurdities like the Chechen war? The proposed alliance with Belarus, as anti-West scare tactics, can only lead to Yeltsin finally convincing 'friend Bill,' 'friend Helmut,' and 'friend Chirac'...that Russia is no partner but a potential enemy."
"Russia, U.S. Face New Crisis"
Dmitry Gornostayev predicted on page one of centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (1/15): "Events of the last few weeks indicate that 'cold peace' may well become reality. This tendency will evidently become irreversible with the confirmation of Madeleine Albright, an iron lady of American politics, as the U.S. secretary of state. Albright is probably an even more aggressive champion of U.S. interests than Yevgeny Primakov is of Russia's. So contacts and talks between the two foreign policy agencies are likely to be uncompromising and devoid of friendliness, which is sure to reflect on U.S.- Russian relations overall.... NATO expansion provides a basis for mounting distrust and ill will between Moscow and Washington."
"Encouraging Initiative"
This is how Vitaly Moroz described the referendum proposal in centrist, army Krasnaya Zvezda (1/15): "NATO's advance to the East, Western politicians insist, is a fait accompli. We should not shun strategic choices and a clear definition of our national interests either. History does not favor latecomers and dawdlers."
"President Pushes Himself Too Hard, Too Early"
Lyubov Tsukanova wrote on page one of reformist Rossiyskiye Vesti (1/15) of the presidential administration: "Let's be honest. Things have been going badly in this country not because someone--even if he is very big and very important- -is sick or has gone on leave. We all, from a government member to a factory worker, have been suffering from a lack of the habit of working on our own and productively. We hate assuming responsibility. We are not enterprising, and if we are, we are often selfish. We love words better than deeds. We are not good at decision-making. In short, we still don't know how to work, manage and be managed properly. In that sense, the president, even when he is sick, can show us a thing or two. The trouble is that the opposition has constantly been wailing over a 'lack of management,' which cannot but affect the president. Like any other normal person, conscious of his responsibility, he pushes himself and, possibly, his doctors and aides too hard, too early. But that does not work out in cases like his."
"U.S. Ready To Help Russia Out Of Armor"
Official government Rossiyskaya Gazeta (1/15) published this comment by Vsevolod Ovchinnikov: "In hailing democratic and market economy reforms in Russia, Americans actively help her along this road mostly when it comes to dismantling her military potential. They, however, bitterly resist Russia trying to gain access to world markets, happy to see her research and technological potential getting rusty and the country itself becoming a 'banana republic without bananas.'"
"Russia Too Weak To Be Enemy"
Viktor Sokolov held in centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (1/15): "People in the West are well aware that Russia is no longer an enemy. Not because she, converted to a 'new faith,' has irreversibly embraced democratic and market economy values, but because she is completely exhausted, both economically and morally, still far from the aspired goal. Mind you, without a market economy and democracy, Russia will never be a good friend either, remaining a constant source of instability and threats."
"New Year Brings New 'Confrontational?' Policy"
Reformist Segodnya (1/14) said in a comment by Vladimir Abarinov and Leonid Velekhov: "The extremely harsh tone Yevgeny Primakov has set this new year may signify a qualitative change in Russia's foreign policy. His statements have the qualities of demarches and ultimatums and, if implemented, will radically alter the Kremlin's orientation from partnership (primarily with the West) to confrontation. The stand Russia's ruling circles have taken on NATO is becoming really dangerous. Officials whose immediate responsibility is to search for common ground with the Alliance have clearly failed in their duty and, having led relations with Brussels into a deadlock, are trying to pass the buck to the president, letting him do face-saving on his own."
"President Lacks Strength For State Work"
Reformist, youth Komsomolskaya Pravda (1/11) concluded in this comment by Nikolai Dolgopolov and Valery Simonov: "The president, unfortunately, has no strength left for real state work, other than signing orders."
"President's Position Unshakable"
Vladimir Razuvayev held on page one of centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (1/11): "There is something deliberate (or odd?) about this country's Number One person coming down with pneumonia for at least a week and its Number Two going on leave, all at once.... Chernomyrdin has his reasons, mostly political.... His absence is easy to explain and justify vis-a-vis the president. It is supposed to demonstrate to this country and the rest of the world that Yeltsin's hospitalization changes nothing in the Kremlin line-up. The president's and the premier's positions are unshakable."
"Chronic Disease Of Russian Authorities"
News analyst Stepan Kiselev concluded on page one of reformist Izvestia (1/10): "So, the 10 days that Boris Yeltsin spent working with the intensity of a sprinter ended with him finding himself confined to a hospital bed. This means that the country for at least another month will live without an active president. This means that the opposition will start dreaming again about introducing a procedure of medical examination to declare Boris Yeltsin 'permanently incapacitated,' while again from all rostrums wishing him good health, though only in retirement. This means that again the main contenders for the presidency will start flexing their muscles, will be ready at any moment to start the race for the coveted post. This means that again Western investors will start scratching their heads and again put off till better times their decisions on financial injections in Russia. This means also a continuation of the time of uncertainty during which not a single high-placed official will be able to adopt any serious decision that is so desperately needed by the Russian economy.
"As to the prime minister, he has gone on leave. Only for 7-8 days, as it was announced by his press service.... It is a chronic disease of the Russian authorities--the perennial inability to govern."
"Arms Manufacturers Elbowed Out Not Only From Cyprus"
Alexander Sychev wrote in reformist Izvestia (1/10): "The action taken by Washington over Cyprus shows once again that the United States is waging an undeclared trade war against Russian arms manufacturers.... It should be recalled that at the end of last year political pressure was put on South Korea which, to reduce our debt to her, acquired from Russia large consignments of modern armaments....
"In Brazil staff members of the American Embassy were reportedly engaged in brazenly discrediting Russian- Brazilian projects in the military and space areas.... In Colombia our Mi-17 helicopters came up against American barriers....
"Finally, the Clinton administration decided to fling open the gates of American arsenals to East European countries, the Baltic states, as well as Ukraine, Georgia and Kazakhstan. You will not find Russia on this list. Our military-industrial complex is regarded by the United States as a dangerous rival against whom it is necessary to take action without any scruples about the means used. The creation of conditions for partnership and trust--there is no mention of this at all."
"Yeltsin Sneezes, Russia Wipes Her Face"
Under the headline above, Alexander Gamov wrote on page one of reformist, youth Komsomolskaya Pravda (1/9): "The alarm with which news of the latest deterioration of the president's health was received is quite understandable: It was only two months ago that Boris Yeltsin had gone through a most complex and, as it turned out, dramatic heart surgery. And although today determined attempts are being made to calm us, to persuade us that the present ailment of the head of state 'is not connected in any way' with his surgery and that a heart complication is unlikely, we, taught as we are by our recent bitter experience when the 'practically healthy' Yeltsin entered the presidential election race and won it as a sick man, have the right to ask the Kremlin an unpleasant but straight question: Is not an attempt to 'run the president to the point of collapse' being made once again?"
"The Cyprus Knot"
News analyst Mikhail Pogorely said in centrist army Krasnaya Zvezda (1/9): "The beginning of the year was marked by a major scandal that erupted in the diplomatic circles of several countries at once. The participants were Cyprus, Russia, the United States, Britain, Turkey, Greece, and several other states. The pretext for this loud outcry was a seemingly routine deal concluded on January 4 between the Russian company Rosvooruzheniye and the government of Cyprus on the delivery to the latter of a consignment of S- 300PMU-1 air defense systems....
"Of course, the actions of the United States, Turkey and other Western countries that are Russia's competitors, evoke an understandable and legitimate critical reaction on the part of Russian government and socio-political structures. On the other hand, one must admit that we should learn from our rivals how to come to the defense of national manufacturers and traders in arms. Meantime, the official Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Gennady Tarasov referred to the issue in rather general terms in the sense that 'it is groundless to regard the sale of certain types of defensive weapon systems' to Cyprus 'as a threat' because this does not change the alignment of forces in the region. He failed to say a single word about the fact that within the framework of internationally recognized rules of arms sales, Russia has no lesser rights than America, Britain and other arms manufacturers to maintain a vigorous presence on the armaments markets."
"The Latin American Variant"
News analyst Sergei Novozhilov concluded in centrist army Krasnaya Zvezda (1/9): "When the government of Colombia recently announced its intent to buy from Russia 10 Mi-17 military transport helicopters, some media outlets in Latin American countries started speaking about a breakthrough of Russian armaments in the region....
"There is nothing left to chance in Washington's behavior in this story. Clearly, the Americans do not want to share with other states an area which until only recently was under their undivided sway, that is, Latin America. Whereas Washington looks the other way when Latin American countries buy armaments in Europe, it becomes greatly concerned when ties with the Russian Federation are established. In recent years manufacturers in the United States abided by Washington's embargo on the sale of hi-tech weapon systems to Latin American countries. Recently, however, the U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry stated that Washington was reviewing this policy. Observers believe that one of the reasons of this could be the growing flow into Latin America of weapons from Russia, the CIS republics and the former socialist countries.... Also, the United States certainly realizes that Latin America is gradually becoming a major arms market."
GERMANY: "Life Without Yeltsin"
Right-of-center Berliner Kurier (1/15) stated: "For months, the Russian president has increasingly traded his office for a hospital bed.... The world must get used to the idea that the powerful man has been ailing. And the weaker he is, the stronger his opponents will be. Yeltsin's absence from power will not create a political vacuum in Russia, since others will fill it up, with ex-general Alexander Lebed at the helm. Today, he is by far more popular in Russia than the leader in the Kremlin.... With pithy words, Lebed has now demanded Yeltsin's impeachment...which is, for the West, a horrible prospect. But we must be able to think of Russia without Yeltsin. Life goes on in politics, too."
"Russian Blackmail"
Werner Adam judged in an editorial in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine (1/14), "This cannot be a coincidence. A few days before the negotiations of NATO Secretary General Solana with Russia's Foreign Minister Primakov, Moscow...announced plans for a merger between Russia and Belarus. The fact that Boris Yeltsin, who is bedridden, has nothing more important to do than to suggest a referendum on the formation of a uniform state...is nurturing the assumption that there is a link to NATO's plans. It is true that Russian forces patrol along the Belarussian border, but if a merger took place, Greater Russia would border on the Polish ACCESSION candidate and on Lithuania that has turned into an obstacle on the path to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. From an NATO angle this is a strategy of blackmail, and everything else by the hoped-for willingness for partnership. When will the Alliance finally admit this?"
"How Much Can NATO Expect Of Yeltsin?"
Lothar Ruehl stated in an editorial in right-of-center Die Welt of Berlin (1/13), "The absence of the president is paralyzing the business of government at its highest level. If this situation continues for another year, the current cartel in the Kremlin...would be able to maintain this power, but would it be able to pursue an effective policy? The large country...would continue to fall even deeper into stagnation.... And as an international address, Moscow would be less representative, and the Russian leadership as a partner increasingly insignificant. But Western relations with Russia are oriented to Moscow, and the Kremlin is the only fixed point.... Today, the (Western) governments continue to pin their hopes on the man in the Kremlin who stands above all like the czar and later the Soviet dictators.... But in the future, (the West) must also count on other political forces. This is why the West should not burden Yeltsin's regime too much and it should also not pin all its hopes on this regime as a reliable, firm factor.... For NATO, this means: Less is more."
"Paralysis, Instability"
Guenter Nonnenmacher commented in an editorial in right-of- center Frankfurter Allgemeine (1/10), "One thing is certain: By voting for Yeltsin, the Russian people elected an ailing old man instead of a robust leader.... Now the economically, socially and in many other aspects embattled country must live with this president... The parallels to the Brezhnev era are now coming clearly to the fore.... Irrespective of whether Yeltsin is in the Kremlin or in a hospital--the ordinary people look resigned in view of the general stagnation.... In a state of total exhaustion, many people prefer the paralyzing status quo over a new expensive election campaign that would only create unrest....
"The president's unpredictable state of health prevents stability and creates an unstable election climate, including the typical paralysis that has always come along during times of a political change.... Without investments the decline of the Russian economy cannot be stopped, and the hoped for growth will not take place, and millions of people will be unable to improve their standard of living.... Nowhere is there one authority that is able to restructure the economy or implement army reform."
"Who Is Taking Care Of Russia?"
Right-of-center Saechsische Zeitung of Dresden (1/10) concluded: "When the ex-USSR was often ruled by ailing men, it was at least surrounded by stable fronts. But today, the lingering problems of Russia are in many respects greater than the infirmity of its president. A whole team of physicians takes care of Yeltsin, but who is taking care of the country? And the past five years demonstrated that even Yeltsin's recovery does not mean a successful treatment of Russia's ailments."
BRITAIN: "Russian MPs On Track To Stop Lebed Bandwagon"
The liberal Guardian maintained (1/17): "Fears among Russia's political establishment that General Lebed, the populist paratrooper, could become president if Boris Yeltsin were to resign through ill health, have led to a 'get Lebed' campaign. The establishment's fears were stoked last night when the American Embassy in Moscow admitted that General Lebed had received an invitation to President Clinton's inauguration ceremony. No other Russian political leader has been invited.... General Lebed's status as the new Russian leader-in-waiting-- enhanced yesterday by visits to Bonn and Dusseldorf-- contrasts with the image of Mr. Yeltsin, still struggling to get out of his hospital bed."
"Yeltsin 'Too Ill To Rule'"
Noting Lebed's prediction that Yeltsin would not complete his term, the conservative tabloid Express (1/14): "There was further pressure on Yeltsin yesterday when the leader of the Russian Communist Party, Gennady Zyuganov, also suggested he was not well enough to rule."
"Candidates Look To Life After Boris"
The independent Financial Times stressed (1/10): "No one should discount the possibility that President Yeltsin will battle through his present illness to complete his four- year term.... Then again, even cats have only nine lives. Every challenge Mr. Yeltsin surmounts makes it less likely he will endure the next--statistically, at least. More and more Russians now appear to be reconciling themselves to life after Boris. There is again a palpable twitching of the nostrils as potential candidates scent the possibilities of a succession race."
FRANCE: "Lebed The Agitator"
Irina de Chikoff opined in right-of-center Le Figaro (1/16), "The idea of a presidential election by the parliament or the national council is slowly making headway. Businessmen and economists, centrists and Communists alike, all are in favor of this solution. A consensus is beginning to take form and the common enemy is Lebed, who claims to whoever wants to hear him: `I want to be president and I will.'"
"Dangers Ahead?"
Joseph Limagne told readers of regional Ouest-France (1/10), "It would be wrong to think that Russia could sustain the absence of its president without encountering some serious dangers. What we can be sure of is that Yeltsin will never regain the energy of his first term. This is a source of as much concern to the international community as it is to Russia."
ITALY: "Taking Lebed's Measure"
A commentary by leading foreign affairs analyst Franco Venturini suggested in centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera (1/17): "The travel tickets that Kohl and Clinton have discreetly delivered to Alexander Lebed over the last few hours show that Lebed has become, for Western leaders as well, a credible alternative to the sick Yeltsin, and, most of all, confirm that a time of hard choices is approaching for Americans and Europeans about the fate of Russia. Barring last-minute developments, Lebed will be in Washington on Monday to attend the inauguration ceremonies...as a private citizen and upon the invitation of Congressional representatives, U.S. sources immediately pointed out. But is it reasonable to believe that the White House was not informed in advance about an initiative which could irritate its friend Yeltsin? And can it be without significance that in Germany, while he was not received by Kohl, Lebed met with the latter's political strategist?
"German and American leaders, and other Western leaders with them, are giving the impression for the first time of wanting to protect themselves.... But Kohl and Clinton should be aware that, this time, the game goes well beyond normal diplomatic caution or a wise diversification of contacts. A precise indication is emerging these days from the big confusion of Russian politics: The progressive strengthening of a big coalition which has in common only a desire to stop Lebed's presidential ambitions. Prime Minister Chernomyrdin is part of this coalition, of course.... Were Yeltsin to resign, Lebed might inherit the almost total powers called for by a constitution Yeltsin had made to measure for himself.... Kohl and Clinton...have decided to face the problem."
"U.S. Bets On Lebed"
Washington correspondent Alberto Pasolini Zanelli filed for leading rightist Il Giornale (1/17): "Lebed is coming to America to explain his views, to improve his image, to correct a certain type of rhetoric. He arrives with a very respected calling card: The last poll confirms that, at the present time, he is the most popular politician in Russia."
"Boris' Future"
Readers of left-leaning, influential La Repubblica saw this editorial (1/12): "For the first time, appeals for Yeltsin's resignation are coming not only from the opposition, but also from political representatives and liberal newspapers who were clearly supporting Yeltsin until a few days ago.... Yeltsin has shown that he is a leader of extraordinary courage, by defying Communism first and then by dismantling it. Over the next few weeks, he may be called to consider making a decision which requires no less courage than that which was necessary to face the tanks of the coup plotters: to keep his word and, if he were to feel forced to be a `part time' president, to resign.... New elections would certainly represent an unknown factor and a risk: but they would nonetheless be preferable to a prolonged paralysis, to a permanent vacuum of power, or to authoritarian temptations to fill it."
"Russia Can No Longer Wait"
A report from Moscow in centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera (1/12) was filed by special envoy Franco Venturini: "For the first time, Russians feel that there is only dark for them in the near future and are unable to find points of reference.... Those visiting Moscow these days get the clear impression that the wait is over.... In the corridors of power big maneuvers and hectic efforts to reach alliances for a not too distant future, in which Yeltsin's fate tends to be taken for granted, are underway.... And also because, among ordinary people, a feeling is growing of rejection of...the post-Soviet politics which, for good and for bad, have been identified with Czar Boris for the past few years."
"Let's Give Russia Time"
A commentary by Ugo Tramballi under the headline above appeared in leading financial Il Sole-24 Ore (1/10): "The real problem for Russia at the present time is time: the time necessary for a country to become democratic, to develop a civil society, a market with decent rules, a middle class numerically larger than the other social classes below and above.... Boris Yeltsin, with all his health problems, is Russia's time. One can certainly get something better in life, but this is what the Russians have. And nobody, not even somebody with excellent health, can replace him in guaranteeing Russia the time it so dramatically needs.... The big international event of 1997 will be the decision that the West will make in Spain in July to expand NATO towards Eastern Europe.... But there are some who already believe that it is necessary to speed up the process: Yeltsin's precarious health, according to them, demonstrates the urgency of creating a system of European security and Russian security. It is as if firemen were to bring down a house in which there is the threat of fire.... NATO, the West and Europe should also try to grant Russia some time."
"Era Of Serious Instability"
According to a dispatch from Moscow in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (1/10): "An era of serious instability is opening for Russia as all the president's men and his opponents are preparing to fight one another. There is not yet a leader ready to receive the baton from Boris Yeltsin's trembling hands. The scepter will have to be conquered in battle, which has already begun."
"Worst Forecasts Are Proving True"
According to left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (1/9): "All the worst forecasts are proving true. Russia is inexorably marching towards a new change of its leadership without having prepared the mechanisms and without having identified Yeltsin's heirs, the successors capable of taking on leadership responsibilities without fighting each other to the death."
BELGIUM: "Is It Wise To Take Lebed Seriously?"
In conservative Catholic La Libre Belgique (1/17), Michel Rosten wrote, "The way in which (Lebed) put an end to the war in Chechnya gained him genuine political credit; but the feeling now prevails that he is in the process of wasting this credit, so much so that one wonders whether the Western world is well-advised in taking him seriously. Of course, the Germans kept a cool head and did not 'roll out the red carpet.'... On the other hand, isn't it too much honor to invite him to Washington to attend President Clinton's second term inauguration?
"It is a fact that General Lebed is making himself famous for his inappropriate statements. Last October, he predicted the downfall of Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin who is still in charge today.... Finally, he saw in his crystal ball that NATO would be confronted with 'internal tensions' after the first candidates for membership join it. Even if he were to be right on one point or another, such verbosity is not particularly commendable."
BULGARIA: "NATO Expands Eastward, Russia Expands Westward"
Under the headline above, ruling Socialist Party Duma (1/15) observed, "The Kremlin found an adequate response to NATO's strategy for territorial expansion. If the Alliance plans to expand eastward, then Russia will expand westward.... It is obvious that this step will be followed by another. Belarus's borders will againbecome the borders of Russia. Belarus's territory may again become a base for Russian nuclear weapons. Given that Belarus borders on Poland and Ukraine, this warning for the two NATO candidate members becomes quite obvious--if they allow NATO's nuclear weapons to be stationed on their territory, then they will have Russian weapons situated along their borders."
HUNGARY: "Why Yeltsin Needs Lukashenko"
Influential, liberal Magyar Hirlap stressed (1/14), "President Yeltsin, even in his sick-bed, seems very determined to impede NATO enlargement or, if this does not work, then at least ask as a high price for it as possible. For centuries the question was: Who is going to defeat whom? Today however the question is: Who is going to convince whom at the green table of diplomacy? This is why Western analysts were far from being surprised by Yeltsin playing the Belarussian card and announcing that Russia and Belarus may soon unite. Such unity has always been considered as a possible countermeasure to NATO enlargement. This is why Yeltsin needs Lukashenko."
NORWAY: "Moscow And Minsk"
Conservative Aftenposten said that President Yeltsin's move to incorporate Belarus back into Russia gives reason for Western concern (1/15), "Belarus, Russia's poor cousin, will probably be forced to accept Yeltsin's invitation.... To Russia's neighbors, the idea of a reunification of Russia and Belarus gives cause for concern. We have no reason to assume that a Moscow-Minsk alliance will look upon NATO expansion any more positively than they do when they're apart. If Poland joins NATO before the turn of the century, Russia-Belarus will end up having a joint border with NATO."
POLAND: "Mother Russia Will Gather In"
Under the headline above, right-wing Zycie (1/14) said in a commentary by Bronislaw Wildstein, "Yeltsin's approval of Lukashenko's wooing is not a surprise, although it must arouse some concern.... The acceptance of Lukashenko's courting means that economic reason is being replaced with imperial logic. I guess Yeltsin is not banking on a change in NATO's plans in the face of the blackmail to merge with Belarus, which is dependent on Russia. The incorporation of Belarus into Russia is a further step in the reconstruction of the Soviet empire and the awakening of the Great Russian nationalism. It is much easier for Yeltsin to tempt with participation in the power of the empire than it is for him to improve living conditions. And that is why, paradoxically, Yeltsin's decision confirms the need to enlarge the North Atlantic Treaty."
"Russia's Strategic Goal: Reintegration Of Former USSR Republics"
Centrist Rzeczpospolita (1/14) remarked in a commentary by Slawomir Popowski on the possibility of a merger between Russia and Belarus: "(Russian) Deputy Chief of Administration, Sergei Shakhrai, said the most effective answer to NATO's expansion eastward would be real unification between Russia and Belarus. In reality, the reference to NATO's threat--as it turns out, beloved not only by the Communists--has, most of all, if not exclusively, a propaganda meaning. What results from Shakhrai's assertion is that had it not been for the threat of moving NATO's border closer to the East, Moscow might have postponed its union with Minsk. This is false. After the demise of the Soviet Union, the reintegration of the former Soviet Republics still remains a strategic goal of Russia because it is upon this fact that regaining the position of a superpower depends.... The reference to NATO's argument can only raise the stakes in the dispute over the price of NATO enlargement."
EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC
JAPAN: "Yeltsin's Absence Becomes Unimportant"
According to an editorial in liberal Asahi (1/14), "Something is certainly different, compared with the time when Yeltsin was hospitalized last July during his presidential campaign. Prime Minister Chernomyrdin has gone on vacation, as scheduled, and the Russian stock market came back after losing ground temporarily. President Yeltsin's absence has become unimportant. Major problems face Russia. Together with the back wages owed Russian workers, these are reform of the military, including a sizable reduction in personnel, and forging diplomacy to block the Eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Without President Yeltsin, these problems will not budge. However, Yeltsin has merely postponed decisions until a later date."
SINGAPORE: "Sino-Russian Axis Unwelcome"
The pro-government Straits Times' editorial (1/10) said under the headline above, "What would be problematic about the latest developments would be their leading to a de facto Sino-Russian strategic axis aimed at excluding the United States from the Asia-Pacific. Such an axis would probably be unsustainable and certainly be counterproductive. Where China and Russia are concerned, both need American capital and markets, which neither of them can replace for the other. Where the region is concerned, America's reach into it has diverse underpinnings--economic, diplomatic and military--that make dislodging it a difficult venture, to say the least. As for trying to displace the United States, most regional countries might not favor such an attempt, which would cause consternation and instability. The militarization of Japan and a review of security options by what might be by then a reunified Korea could be among the most immediate consequences. Nations that view the United States as a balancer power in this part of the world would not relish the alternative, an alliance that restructures the strategic, economic and political landscape to offer uncertainty at best and insecurity at worst. China and Russia should come together; indeed, it is not inconceivable that they will draw closer to each other than the United States is to either. But an axis between the two would merely drive a wedge between them and the rest of the Asia-Pacific."
SOUTH ASIA
PAKISTAN: "Ailing President"
The centrist News commented (1/15): "Russian President Boris Yeltsin's multiple heart bypass surgery, which kept him out of official circulation for nearly six months, and his recent week-long bout with pneumonia are beginning to cause worry fatigue to the Russians. They must have had enough of an ailing head of state.... However, it is now believed that the Russians, having tasted life without Yeltsin, might not feel unduly troubled if he is no longer the president.... If there were any shivers, these were mostly felt in Washington and other Western capitals, where Yeltsin is seen as a bulwark against a red tide already surging in the country."
NEPAL: "Yeltsin's Best Days Seem To Be Over"
The government-owned Rising Nepal (1/10) remarked, "Yeltsin's best days seem to be over. He no longer excites the sort of enthusiasm that he generated among the people four years ago. He does not have any more excuses to cite in defense of his non-performance. Hundreds of thousands of families have seen their life's savings evaporate because of high inflation, which is still about 55 percent. Communist leader Zyuganov is elated that Lebed has parted company with Yeltsin. Zyuganov expects to have better prospects at the polls if there is a multi- cornered contest."
LATIN AMERICA
ARGENTINA: "Yeltsin's Absence Does Not Alter Russian Events"
An editorial in pro-government La Prensa (1/11) concluded, "The frequency with which Yeltsin suffers one or other kind of physical disorder creates uncertainty, understandable as such, but even more so as a result of Russia's uncertain political situation. The anxiety is caused by fear of having an acephalous state, leading to a fierce fight for succession. As justified as these concerns may be, recent experience suggests they are exaggerated. In spite of Yeltsin's extended absences...the course of Russian political events did not seem to be noticeably altered.... During the bad old times of the Soviet Union, the illnesses of the leaders had other semantic values.... But the gradual strengthening of democratic institutions has it that, also in Russia, the transmission of power, including in emergency cases, is governed by foreseeable rules."
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