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ANOTHER 'TIME OF TROUBLES' FOR RUSSIA, BELARUS?
(Foreign Media Reaction Daily Digest)
In the past month, commentators abroad have grown more
apprehensive about developments in Russia and Belarus,
seeing the first mired in "political paralysis, economic
mismanagement and increasing social disorder and violence"
and the smaller republic "on the path to dictatorship."
RUSSIA--Despite the welcome news that the bloody
conflict in Chechnya finally appears to be ending,
observers focused on cataloguing the many problems that for
at least one writer in Moscow marked the end "of a once
formidable superpower." The paramount "symbol of the
nation's fall" for many was the "deplorable" state of the
Russian armed forces: Its troops unpaid, its budget
depleted and its officers tarred by corruption. Deputy
Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov spoke in Moscow's centrist,
army Krasnaya Zvezda of the implications for Russia if its
army collapses. "Of the main foreign policy problems that
confront us now, none can be resolved," he warned, "unless
we have modern, well-equipped and manned armed forces."
London's conservative tabloid Express and Buenos Aires'
business El Cronista pointed, also, to the dangers for the
international community. "These are the people who handle
the world's largest atomic arsenal," the dailies stressed,
adding, "Nuclear missiles will become the weapon of first
response...if the disintegration of Russia's conventional
forces continues."
In the Moscow press, the perception of Russia's
problems abroad weighed just as heavily as did its domestic
woes. Anxiety over NATO's proposed enlargement and
Russia's resulting isolation has not abated. Former Soviet
President Mikhail Gorbachev, writing in centrist
Nezavisimaya Gazeta, railed against the Alliance's plans
and what he saw as U.S. "contempt" for Moscow as
indications that Russia is treated "as a foreign body in a
circle of formal democracies." Igor Maximychev of the
Europe Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences held in
reformist, government Rossiyskiye Vesti, "Russia is deeply
worried, and rightly so, over the West violating its
commitment not to revive confrontation. The moment
Europe...dons a NATO uniform, Russia will be unable to
count on being treated as an equal in the European system
of international relations." Madeleine Albright's
appointment as secretary of state did not reassure Russian
pundits, either--nationalist, opposition Sovetskaya Rossiya
insisted that she will "hardly deviate from the tough U.S.
global policy, putting pressure on Russia and seeking to
undermine its interests."
BELARUS--Editorialists split over the legitimacy of the
sweeping powers granted Belarussian President Alexander
Lukashenko by his victory in the November 24 referendum.
Some in Russia and all throughout Europe fretted that, in
the words of centrist Neue Osnabruecker Zeitung, "the
descent into dictatorship can hardly be stopped anymore."
Moscow's reformist business weekly VEK and official
government Rossiyskaya Gazeta supported Mr. Lukashenko,
Belarus's "integration" with Russia and criticized the U.S.
and the Council of Europe for their support of the
parliament in Minsk. "The Belarus people," declared VEK,
"made it plain again that they trusted their president....
He, like no one else, understands the Belarus mentality."
This survey is based on 71 reports from nine countries,
Nov. 16-Dec. 10.
EDITOR: Mildred Sola Neely
RUSSIA
EUROPE
RUSSIA: "For Russia, Albright Means Pressure"
Nationalist, opposition Sovetskaya Rossiya (12/10) ran this
comment by Vasily Safronchuk: "No doubt, anti-Communist
Albright, ideologically close to the current Russian
leaders, may find them nice to talk to. But in her new
position, she will hardly deviate from the tough U.S.
global policy, putting pressure on Russia and seeking to
undermine its interests."
"Moscow Not Ready For Albright"
Vladimir Abarinov held on page one of reformist Segodnya
(12/7): "The Albright appointment creates enormous problems
for Moscow, with the Foreign Ministry simply not ready to
face them.... Naturalized Americans, especially those from
Eastern Europe, are known for an utter intolerance of anti-
Americanism, however slight, which is rare these days, and
very susceptible to any attempt by Moscow to dictate to
former satellite states. Albright is very intense,
uncompromising, and has a way of getting things done. She
is also tough, resourceful and vigorous.... She and other
appointments are a vivid sign of what place America has
chosen for itself in the contemporary world. They are not
just professionals or even like-minded people. They are a
real team, without having as much as a hint of the
notorious system of checks and balances with which our
commentators have been crediting Yeltsin.... That team and
those tough guys contrast sharply with what we,
regrettably, are having in Russia. Our Foreign Ministry,
euphoric over its imaginary victories in Lisbon, is in for
a hard time, as it may wind up on the periphery of the
mainstream world politics."
"Russia: Sick Man Of Europe"
Georgy Bovt and Natalia Kalashnikova held in reformist,
business-oriented Kommersant Daily (12/5): "The gathering
(OSCE) obliged Moscow by not mentioning NATO by name in the
declaration. That, however, smacks of psychotherapy, as
the document clearly says that nations are free to join any
military-political organization.... Back in 1877, too,
great powers were concerned about the state of affairs in
what they called the 'European Concert.' Little has
changed since then, and great powers are still busy trying
to create an effective security system. The Balkans,
though not ablaze, remain a hot spot. The Ottoman Empire,
the then sick man of Europe, is gone, but its place has
been taken by another former empire, Russia. Things could
not be worse. But the European and Atlantic 'concerts'
seem to be content with the 'sick man.'"
"Don't Let Spy Scandals Harm International Relations"
Reformist weekly Moskovskiye Novosti (# 48, 12/4) said in a
comment by Yelena Kalyadina: "Revelations like those in the
New York Post (about the FBI planning to arrest six Russian
spies, Nicholson's partners) are evidently supposed to
cause the side Nicholson reportedly worked for to take
actions that might prove he really did this. So far,
there's been no reaction from the said side. Nor has there
been any from Nicholson himself, who is as determined as
ever to prove his innocence. There is nothing to it but to
hope that the 'other side' will exercise restraint too.
Just like this side, it must surely appreciate the wisdom
of the old rule that no scandals in the intelligence
community must be allowed to harm international relations."
"Duma Left Use Chechnya To Gain Party Ends"
Maxim Sokolov commented on page one of reformist, business-
oriented Kommersant Daily (11/30): "If the leftist majority
in the Duma had cared about Russia's territorial integrity,
as it
claims it does, it would have used the first half of this
year to determine the causes of the (Russian army's)
military setbacks. By doing all in its power and backing
the government in resolving the national task of crushing
the separatist uprising, it could have called the
government to task for its failures. Instead, the 'Red'
Duma preferred to use Chechnya to gain its selfish ends.
As it took the position of 'let Yeltsin and the government
clean up their own mess,' it cannot complain about
capitulation. If the Duma thinks it necessary to renew the
war, it must come forward and explain clearly why it
believes there is no other way out. A war must needs
involve the whole nation. A war to the accompaniment of
incoherent blabbering in the Duma and confusing actions
that have nothing to do with support for the government, is
something Russia has had for the past two years, to which
we, naturally, owe the Hasavyurt disgrace. To resume such
a war, just like continuing it, is definitely a crime."
"Russia To Increase Sales Of Military Hardware To Iran"
Vladimir Abarinov remarked in reformist Segodnya (11/30):
"The Russian president, in response to Washington accusing
Moscow of aiding Iran's nuclear programs, more than once
promised his U.S. counterpart not to sign new military
contracts with that country. But Russian Vice Premier Oleg
Davydov told Interfax the other day that Moscow intends to
sell more machines and military hardware to Iran, bringing
the total supplies to $4 billion over the next 10 years."
"Moscow Out To Retain Chechnya At Least As Economic
Dominion"
Centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta's editor Vitaly Tretyakov said
on page one (11/29): "At the end of this century, a
military diktat is not enough to ensure Russian
jurisdiction over Chechnya. Chechnya seeks to separate
from Russia and, most probably, will succeed in this.
Moscow is out to retain Chechnya at least as an economic
dominion. In that sense, the actions of the Chubais-
Rybkin-Berezovsky group, backed by Yeltsin and
Chernomyrdin, seemed logical, consistent, and, in many
respects, unavoidable after Lebed--pursuing selfish
political interests, of course--signed the Khasavyurt
accords."
"Russia Has Reason To Worry"
Igor Maximychev of the Europe Institute of the Russian
Academy of Sciences held in reformist, government
Rossiyskiye Vesti (11/27): "Ending confrontation in Europe
made it possible to solve the problem of European security
on a fundamentally new basis, without dividing European
nations into blocs and categories, with some considered
more worthy than others. However, NATO's plans to break
the status quo will block progress toward a greater
Europe.... Russia is deeply worried, and rightly so, over
the West violating its commitment not to revive
confrontation. The moment Europe...dons a NATO uniform,
Russia will be unable to count on being treated as an equal
in the European system of international relations....
Russia is no vanquished country to be dictated peace terms.
Russia is a victor, whose good will made it possible to end
the Cold War bloodlessly. So, it deserves to be treated
with respect, if not gratitude (you can't count on
gratitude in politics)."
"Blowing Up Spy Case May Strain U.S.-Russia Ties"
Viktor Nikolayev remarked in neo-communist Pravda (11/27):
"Blowing up the Nicholson case too much may strain U.S.-
Russia contacts unnecessarily.... A chill may sneak into
the bilateral relationship, replacing normalization. Who
will benefit by that and why? Thinking about that will do
us all good, including certain high-ranking FBI officials,
nostalgic for Cold War days and putting departmental
ambitions ahead of national interests."
"Chechnya Peace Accord Welcomed, But Questions Remain"
Reformist Izvestia (11/26) front-paged this by Oto Latsis:
"Born of the Hasavyurt agreement, the fragile peace in
Chechnya has become more palpable following the signing of
the Moscow accords. The total withdrawal of federal
troops from Chechnya it envisions creates a new reality
which has yet to be appreciated. The peace agreement is
welcome, as Russian citizens no longer kill each other in
this senseless war. It also gives rise to confusion and
anger as you ask yourself, 'What did we fight for? Why did
we fight instead of talking?' These questions have to be
answered, as someone has to answer for what happened."
"War Is Over"
Ilya Maxakov said on page one of centrist Nezavisimaya
Gazeta (11/26): "With Chernomyrdin and Maskhadov signing an
agreement in Moscow, most observers believe the Chechen war
is completely over."
"Moscow Lacks Clear Settlement Concept"
Georgy Bovt and Natalia Kalashnikova pointed out in
reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (11/26):
"Judging by the accords just signed, there is still no
clear settlement concept for Chechnya. Moscow Mayor Yury
Luzhkov said that the president's decree on the withdrawal
of federal troops, in effect, is a follow up to what looks
like Chechnya breaking away from Russia. It all started
with the former national security chief Alexander Lebed
signing what was actually an act of capitulation for the
Russian army. Nonetheless, Luzhkov concedes, under the
circumstances, there is apparently no other way out of the
Chechen problem."
"Tough Talk May Lead To Tough Action"
Official government Rossiyskaya Gazeta (11/23) said in an
editorial: "In the Brezhnev and Carter days, the superpower
relations went awry as a result of the war in Afghanistan
and the U.S. boycott of the Moscow Olympic Games. Today
the U.S.-Russian partnership cannot get off the ground
because of NATO expansion plans and unseemly actions by
special services. The American press has whipped up
hysteria over the Nicholson case. Moscow is outraged by
the gross act of perfidy U.S. special services committed
against Russian ex-spy Galkin. The way things are going,
tough talk overseas may become tough action."
"New Model Of U.S.-Russia Ties Needed"
Ex-Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev wrote on page one of
centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (11/23): "America's attitude
toward Russia has hardly changed for the better in recent
years, there being more in it of an ill wish and even
contempt.... Both sides, having abandoned the former
confrontation-type policy with regard to each other, have
yet to develop a new model of relations.... Now, it seems,
is the time to show mutual responsibility.... The current
situation inside Russia gives America and the West reasons
to view her as a foreign body in a circle of formal
democracies and paint a revolting image of Russia, thereby
justifying the double-standard policy they have pursued in
relation to this country.... A lot is being said about
partnership, a need to consider Russia's interests,
including her security interests, now that NATO is about to
transform itself. Why is then NATO pushing on eastward?
Why is NATO's greater role, in effect, presented as the
alternative to Russia's willingness honestly and on an
equal footing to take part in reforming Europe and the
world?... Don't they in America realize that any arrogant
gesture or insulting move in regard to Russia is promptly
taken up and used in this country by the opponents of
normal relations with the United States?... The time has
come for a new agenda in world politics, in general, and
Russo-American relations, in particular."
"An Eye For Eye"
Andrei Polishchuk stated on page one of centrist
Nezavisimaya Gazeta (11/20): "SVR (Russia's external
intelligence service) officials see the Galkin scandal as a
slap in the face of American special services responsible
for that crude provocation. In that sense, the arrest of a
prized SVR agent by the CIA came as a return blow, just as
telling, from Americans. Nonetheless, an active agent in
the CIA was undoubtedly a credit to the Russian
intelligence service and evidence of its great
potential.... In any event, Moscow needs already to think
of retaliation. Even at the height of the Galkin row,
Russia's counterintelligence service was ready to strike
back, waiting for a signal from the country's political
leadership. Supposedly, that plan still holds. If so, we
can soon witness another bout in the fighting between the
world's most powerful special services."
"Russia Loses Last Attributes Of Superpower"
Centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (11/19) front-paged a comment
by Tatyana Koshkareva: "The past week saw the end of a once
formidable superpower, with the last attributes of its
former status--control of its own territory and outer
space--lost completely on November 16th. The blast at
Kaspiisk and the failure of the Mars mission are more than
symbols. Russia's power agencies have surrendered to the
criminal world and its economy can no longer handle costly
research and technical projects. The said events seem to
be just symbols of the nation's fall. In the United
States, too, buildings get blown and rockets misfire
sometimes. But in Russia, which lacks the tradition of
having the government publicly acknowledge its errors
instead of hushing them, symbols provide much more
information for conclusions than bureaucrats' lame excuses
do.... The symbolic degradation of the superpower is a
result of its primitivism. It is as if the genie of
strife, once out of the sealed jug of authoritarianism, put
the entire state power at the service of influential
politicians so they could fight each other."
"Japan Out To Boost Stand in Northeast Asia"
Vasily Golovnin in Tokyo filed in reformist Segodnya
(11/19) about a visit to Japan by Russian Foreign Minister
Yevgeny Primakov: "Clearly, the two neighboring countries
seek contacts, willing to liven up dialogue. In doing so,
Japan evidently sees a way to bolster its stand in
Northeast Asia."
"Russo-China Ties On The Rise"
Reformist Segodnya's Leonid Velekhov wrote (11/19) about
Primakov's visit to Beijing: "Primakov arrived at a
propitious time, his visit flanked by those of the U.S.
Secretary of State Warren Christopher, whom Beijing clearly
dislikes, and German President Roman Herzog, whose
questions on human rights in China gave his hosts quite a
few unpleasant moments.... No doubt, the talks with
Primakov will include no moot issues. Russian-Chinese
political relations are on the rise, something both Moscow
and Beijing treasure very much."
"Factor Of Military Force"
Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov stated in centrist,
army Krasnaya Zvezda (11/19): "The factor of a military
force has played and will continue to play an important
role in securing Russian interests in the international
arena. Of the main foreign policy problems that confront
us now, none can be resolved, unless we have modern, well-
equipped and manned armed forces.... Russia needs an
active national security policy, primarily in Europe. The
central problem there is NATO enlargement.... While we
have no right of veto to stop that process, we have serious
means to influence the whole complex of problems related to
European security.
"We are trying to use them now to keep to a minimum the
adverse effects of probable NATO enlargement."
"Black Stain In American History"
Official government Rossiyskaya Gazeta (11/16) declared in
a comment by Vladimir Klimov: "The Galkin incident will
forever remain a black stain, a large blotch, in American
history."
"'Civilized' Settlement"
Nikolai Zimin filed for reformist Segodnya (11/16), quoting
a Russian Embassy official in Washington: "It would have
been odd, absurd and unforgivable, if Russian-American
relations had suffered because of that which is not worth a
tuppence. We want no complications and are glad to have
avoided them in this specific instance, anyhow."
"Usual Bureaucratic Idiocy"
Vladimir Nadein reported from Washington for reformist
Izvestia (11/15): "Though the Galkin arrest looks like
'considered political provocation,' it may also be a result
of a usual bureaucratic idiocy. Stupidity, a salient
feature of communist government, persists even in advanced
market-economy nations. The surviving superpower's
arrogance spares latent idiots the trouble of having to
restrain themselves."
"State Department, White House Confused"
Nikolai Zimin in Washington filed for reformist Segodnya
(11/15): "Clearly, the State Department and the White House
are confused...finding themselves in the trap the clumsy
FBI set up for Vladimir Galkin."
"Throwback to Cold War Era"
Mikhail Stakhov said on page one of reformist Moskovskaya
Pravda (11/15): "Though long gone, the Cold War
occasionally makes itself felt even today. By arresting a
Russian ex-spy, U.S. special services drove themselves to
the wall, not knowing how to get out of this predicament
without losing face."
"Clinton Doesn't Want Russia Utterly Weakened"
Director of the U.S. and Canada Institute of the Russian
Academy of Sciences, Sergei Rogov, stated in reformist,
business weekly VEK (# 44, 11/15): "I don't think that the
Clinton administration wants Russia weakened completely.
Most likely, it will refrain from radical steps, waiting to
see how the current crisis in this country will end. But
unless we overcome the seven-year economic depression,
ensure political stability and effect military reform, we
cannot expect the United States or any other country to
consider us a serious partner. Weak, we cannot expect
others to accept our terms or recognize even our legitimate
interests."
GERMANY: "Dismissed"
Werner Adam dealt in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine
(12/5) with a possible power struggle among Russia's
generals after the dismissal of General Semyonov, "Russia's
Defense Minister Rodionov has canceled his trip to
Washington, thus revealing that he does not want to leave
Moscow at the current time.... This time it was not
President Yeltsin, but Rodionov himself who created unease
among Russia's generals when he fired the chief of staff
and now also the chief of the armed forces, Semyonov. In
the latter case we must include a power
policy aspect, because President Yeltsin has so far not
approved the dismissal, although the fired general is
accused of dishonorable behavior. Again conspiracy
theories have been presented and among those one is really
comprehensible: Rodionov is trying to break the
resistance among the generals to his extensive military
reform."
"Back To Sanity"
Left-of-center Frankfurter Rundschau (11/25) carried this
editorial on Chechnya, "For Moscow the lack of any kind of
order would be worse than the rule of the secessionists in
a region that is riddled with arms. The order of a total
withdrawal is not the beginning of the end of the Russian
Federation, as the Communists say. It is rather the waking
up of reason after a horrible bloodshed."
"Yeltsin's Courage"
In the view of centrist Neue Osnabruecker Zeitung (11/25):
"The Chechens can heave a sigh of relief. To create peace
without weapons--this is the turnabout to which Boris
Yeltsin has now wrestled through.... But in view of the
satisfaction about the troop withdrawal, we should not
forget the misery which imperialistic thinking has caused,
and how high is the price for this hopefully final peace.
Chechnya remains a salutary example of a great power
policy of which we thought it had been overcome.
Nevertheless, Yeltsin deserves respect for his courage to
order the retreat which the Communists and nationalists
sharply reject. By doing so the president is running a
considerable domestic policy risk."
"Fear Of Military Coup?"
Josef Riedmiller wrote in an editorial in centrist
Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (11/14), "After Defense
Minister Rodionov said that the collapse of the armed
forces is possible because of a lack of funds, Boris
Yeltsin and Premier Chernomyrdin now want to tackle the
reform of the armed forces. Since August, the defense
budget has been exhausted and the budget for next year,
which provides for a considerable increase, is hanging in
midair due to the general financial predicament in Russia.
Now the Russian leadership is hurrying to make decisions
and the reason for this move may be the fear of a military
coup. But apparently it is unfounded since, in the
meantime, even the military is using ironic statements to
address the incapacity of the armed forces to stage a coup
as well as to wage a war. The military hardly exaggerates
events, since the state of the Russian armed forces could
hardly be more deplorable....
"A drastic personnel cut and the transition from an army of
draftees to a professional army are to help resolve the
problems. At the beginning of this reform, which is to
last much longer than the originally planned four years,
questions of principle need to be resolved. How may
soldiers are needed, what for, and who is the potential
enemy and what kind of arms are necessary to deter him.
After the end of the Cold War, these questions must also
be answered in Russia, too.... There are now rumors of a
new military doctrine which should show consideration for
a danger emanating from the Taliban in Afghanistan like
NATO's enlargement to the East, which now seems to be
regarded as the lesser evil."
BRITAIN: "Meltdown, Mutiny...But An Even Greater Menace"
The conservative tabloid Express ran this op-ed piece by
foreign editor Chris Buckland (11/22): "In a series of
remarkably frank conversations with the men at the heart of
the once mighty Russian military machine, a picture emerges
of an organization at the very brink of collapse. Words
such as 'mutiny' and 'meltdown' are used.... The successor
to the great Red Army which less than a decade ago could
have swept across Western Europe in four days has become an
army of beggars....
"Nuclear missiles will become the weapon of first response
to any perceived attack if the disintegration of Russia's
conventional forces continues."
"A Sick Russia Is Dangerous For Us All"
In editorial comment, the centrist Independent warned
(11/21): "Four months after Boris Yeltsin's re-election,
Russia presents a disturbing picture of political
paralysis, economic mismanagement and increasing social
disorder and violence. The fresh boost to the reform
process that Mr. Yeltsin's decisive election victory was
supposed to provide has yet to materialize. In fact, on a
range of fronts, from the control of nuclear weapons and
the chaotic condition of the armed forces to random street
crime and the plight of millions of unpaid workers, matters
have almost certainly grown worse....
"Far from hailing Mr. Yeltsin's apparent return to health
as a sign that all will soon be well, the West should
understand that matters could easily get worse before they
improve."
ITALY: "U.S.-Russia: Betrayed Hopes"
A front-page commentary by Mikhail Gorbachev in centrist La
Stampa warned (11/27): "In Russia, anti-Americanism is
spreading...including within pro-Western circles. In
recent years the American attitude toward Russia has
changed, and not for the better.... It is time that both
countries take on their respective responsibility.... If
the United States continues its present policy, it will not
have a stable new world order.... Do opposing interests
exist between the United States and Russia which make
unavoidable if not a direct clash, a constant
opposition?... I say 'no,' provided that the United States
does not expect to play the role of world policeman. If
the United States really wants to enter into the 21st
century as the only superpower dictating policy guidelines
to the world, asking its allies only for pro forma
opinions, it will be a catastrophe...for the United States
itself. Russia, in turn, needs a democratic alternative
from its present regime.... Salvation...lies in those
people and ideas coming from the 'Third Force': a just
notion of Russian national interests, proposing Russian
integration into the world market...and the development of
democracy."
BELGIUM: "Boris Is Back"
Pol Mathil stated in independent Le Soir (11/25)): "Boris
Yeltsin is back. The decree ordering the Russian troops'
complete withdrawal from Chechnya bears the seal of his
best days. Apparently, it is a major concession. In fact,
it is without much risk.... But above all, the issue of
Chechnya's final status--within Russia or independent from
Russia--will only come up for discussion five years from
now. This is a decisive factor. The developments in
Chechnya or the elections which just took place in several
areas of the Caucasus or elsewhere reflect the strength and
the persistence of separatist tendencies throughout the
non-Russian territories of Russia and its former republics.
Granting Chechnya a more or less independent status at this
point would thus operate as a bomb."
SPAIN: "The Future Of Russia"
Conservative ABC's editorial maintained (12/8), "The
happiness caused by the disappearance of the Soviet
Union...disguised what is, in reality, the great collapse
of Russia. The process of political and economic
normalization is enormous and continues to require
international aid as well as cultural and political
conditions which have not materialized during the past five
past years. The West runs the risk of being exhausted,
and Russia, the risk of resentment. The temptation to
punish Russia should be discarded. The normalization of
Russia is threatened not only by Communist nostalgia and
by radical nationalists, but also by the lack of foreign
trust which makes Russia's access to the present
international order more difficult. In 1991, Russia
ambitiously bet on freedom and democracy and the West
should facilitate both."
SOUTH ASIA
INDIA: "Boris Pulls Out Of Chechnya"
An editorial (12/3) in the centrist Statesman held: "In
signing a decree to pull out the 205th Defense Ministry
motorized brigade and the Interior Ministry's 101st
brigade, comprising 6,000 troops, that still remain in
Chechnya after the withdrawal in terms of an agreement in
August, President Boris Yeltsin clearly made a virtue out
of necessity.... The enforced rest enabled Yeltsin to give
full consideration to his options after 21 months of futile
efforts to tame Chechens by force, to appreciate the wisdom
of the advice U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott
gave in July--to work for a political solution, a victory
on the battlefield being impossible--and to realize the
implications of a statement made by a State Department
spokesman Nicholas Burns that the majority of the
casualties in Chechnya had been Russian rather than Chechen
civilians.... The paradox is that the Duma considers the
military operation in Chechnya to have been a blunder...and
yet opposes a total pullout."
LATIN AMERICA
ARGENTINA: "A Russia Sailing On Troubled Water"
An editorial in leading Clarin (12/10) opined, "The latest
symptoms complete a more than complicated balance. In the
Kremlin, the minister of defense speaks of 'extreme
political and economic instability;' the chief of the army
is removed, charged for presumed corruption; voices from
the Security Council warn that the state is in 'financial
bankruptcy;' and 400,000 miners are checkmating the
government with the backing of the Duma.
"Belarus--on its way to a dictatorship--and Ukraine--
threatening to expel the Russian fleet from
Sebastopol...add their elements of unrest in these past
five years of a Russia that is sailing on troubled waters.
In any case, it has in its favor having gained time in
face of restoration and regressive attempts, and a
relative institutional stability that guarantees an
interesting and new civic freedom exercise."
"Dangerous Crisis In Russian Armed Forces"
Business-financial El Cronista observed in a column by
Hernando Kleinmans, from Moscow (12/3), "Almost two
million Russian soldiers wander in search of their
destiny, after history doomed them, defeated, to leave
Afghanistan; to evacuate Eastern Europe without fighting
and to withdraw their troops, stoned by the Chechens. In
addition to this, a tremendous budget shortage turned the
'once most powerful army in the world' into beggars....
With a salary which barely reaches $150 , aircraft pilots
are forced to look for other activities in order to feed
their families.... Corruption and military disorder grew
as a consequence of the exaggerated number of high-ranking
officers on active duty.... In addition, there is the
abrupt drop in the military budget....
"The failure of the costly expedition 'Mars '96',
undertaken by the entire Western European scientific
community on Russian military missiles, has revealed in a
spectacular way this miserable reality. Most of the
brilliant Russian technicians are working for private
companies.... For the time being, nobody talks about lack
of control. But these are the people who handle the
world's largest atomic arsenal and their intercontinental
vehicles."
BELARUS
RUSSIA: "Lukashenko: As Good As His Word"
Viktor Prikhodko filed from Minsk for reformist business
weekly VEK (# 46, 11/29): "Contrary to speculation by
skeptics, the referendum led to neither civil war nor
public unrest. The Belarus people made it plain again that
they trusted their president.... For fairness' sake, one
has to admit that, as a personality, the president today
has not his match among Belarus politicians. He, like no
one else, understands the Belarus mentality.... True, he
controls the electronic media, but that is a rule rather
than an exception in post-Soviet states.... A politician
has a tongue to hide his thoughts. Alexander Lukashenko,
spurning that rule, does precisely the opposite--he does
what he says. The electorate seems to like that. At least
for now."
"More Powers For Lukashenko May Lead To Dictatorship"
Marina Volkova cited the Russian president's legal advisor,
Mikhail Krasnov, as saying on page one of centrist
Nezavisimaya Gazeta (11/27): "By approving of the draft
constitution suggested by the Belarus president, the
Russian leadership assumes its share of responsibility for
what may happen in that country. Adding to Alexander
Lukashenko's powers, Krasnov believes, may lead to
dictatorship sealed in the constitution."
"Lukashenko Outsmarts Them All"
Alexander Starikevich and Besik Urigashvili filed this from
Minsk for reformist Izvestia (11/26): "The Belarus
president outsmarted everyone--his opponents at home and
the Russian peacemakers.... His opponents have no one but
themselves to blame. Having no clear-cut stand, they could
not help but lose again.... Mind you, the referendum did
not solve Belarus' economic and political problems.
Nothing changed. The process, strange as it might seem,
proved more important than the outcome, since Lukashenko--
reportedly a lucky guy in politics--is not a creative type
of person. This means that Belarus is in for more
referenda and power struggles."
"While I'm Not Inclined To Blame CIA...."
Sergei Karaganov, a member of Russia's presidential
council, mused in reformist business weekly VEK (# 45,
11/22): "No doubt, Belarus is going through hard times, a
deep crisis, with the old system being pulled down to be
replaced by a new one. People sometimes use situations
like that one to fan political tension to cover up economic
failures. This is what the Belarus president and
government seem to be doing now. There are external
reasons, as well. I am not inclined to blame the American
CIA or other special services for every wrong committed in
this world. But obviously, certain circles in Russia and
the West support forces in opposition to the Belarus
president or, rather, his policy of rapprochement and
integration with Russia.... Unfortunately, that policy,
evidently pro-Russian, may have a reverse effect, as it is
beginning to erode Lukashenko's standing and cast a shadow
over his Russian orientation, backed as it is by the
majority of his fellow countrymen.... Russia, in the first
place, needs to define its own position. Our policy is
very odd.... The way some advocates of integration with
Belarus have been acting, in fact, torpedoes this idea....
Unless we bind ourselves to Belarus and get that country
started on the road to economic reform, we may suffer our
greatest loss. Belarus is a good deal more important to
Russia than any other ex-Soviet republic or even all of
them put together."
"U.S. Stance On Belarus Biased"
Official government Rossiyskaya Gazeta (11/21), commenting
on a statement by the U.S. State Department on events in
Belarus, front-paged this by Vladimir Kuznechevsky:
"Reports by news
agencies give the impression that Lukashenko has done
something that goes far beyond constitutional norms in the
United States and that he is requested immediately to bring
his actions in line with U.S. law.... It is odd, indeed.
It is commonly known that Belarus is in a political crisis.
It is known also that both the executive and legislative
branches are equally responsible for repeated violations of
the that country's constitution. So why does the United
States, followed by the Council of Europe and all sort of
Venetian commissions, support only one side, parliament, in
this internal conflict? Russia, pained as it is by this
crisis, has a balanced position. Perhaps it is the only
correct position an outside observer can take. Indeed, it
is hard to reproach only one side. One-sided support
always spells pressure, which often leads to instigation."
"Moscow Stand Strange"
Andrei Smirnov and Anna Baneva said on page one of
reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (11/21): "The
policy of 'non-interference in the internal affairs of a
sovereign state' Moscow has officially pursued until
recently, listlessly looking on as the Belarus president
and parliament edged ever closer to an open confrontation,
has given way to feverish diplomatic activity.... It was
odd to see Moscow acting that way, especially as Belarus is
not just a neighbor but a signatory to this year's
agreement on integration within the CIS. That can only be
explained by a desire not to make things more difficult for
the Belarus president. Any reaction by the Russian
authorities could not but be critical of Lukashenko, as his
actions were way out of line with the norms of relations
between different branches of power in a civilized state."
"Lukashenko Bad Ally"
Reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (11/19)
commented editorially: "The Belarus president's policy at
home is enough to accuse him of authoritarian tendencies.
An ally like that would add to Russia's problems in
European affairs.... Lukashenko's policy destabilizes the
situation in the republic.... He is a barely predictable
partner."
"Russia, Belarus Live By Same Scenario"
Alexander Frolov asserted in nationalist opposition
Sovetskaya Rossiya (11/19): "Any unbiased observer will
admit that President Lukashenko has virtually been
following the road Yeltsin trod in 1993. The end of that
road, just as tragic, is round the corner.... The
bourgeois-democratic system in the CIS, including Russia,
was stillborn. The existing parliamentary institutions are
nothing but camouflage for the total powerlessness of the
executive branch and instantly get crushed by the president
should they aspire to something bigger. Under the
circumstances, confrontation between the executive and
legislative branches increasingly becomes a 'political
pastime,' a way to take the masses' attention off basic
social and economic problems.... Belarus is an extreme
case. But political life in Russia has been following a
similar scenario."
"There's No Rush"
Alexander Batygin said in official government Rossiyskaya
Gazeta (11/16): "Hardly anyone in Minsk or Moscow today is
opposed to good relations between these two Slav peoples.
But do we have to hurry trying to form a 'union of two?'
Belarus today has more problems than it can handle,
political strife rending its society apart."
GERMANY: "On The Path To Dictatorship?"
In the view of centrist Neue Osnabruecker Zeitung (11/26)
opined: "Even after a very controversial vote for an
amendment to the constitution, the descent into
dictatorship can hardly
be stopped anymore. The big Russian neighbor can look at
this development with mixed feelings. Lukashenko is
searching for close links to Moscow, and his country is of
considerable significance for the strongest CIS power.
But, at the same time, his attempt to turn the wheel back
is creating great fears in Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic
States. Belarus as a disruptive factor in the East, this
is not a nice perspective. Moscow will certainly want to
preserve its influence in Minsk, but it remains to be seen
whether a long-term undisrupted relationship can be set up
with Lukashenko. The miserable economic situation can
quickly lead to calls for help.... In addition, the
growing highhandedness of Belarus's leader makes him even
more unpredictable."
"Belarus: Germany's Unpredictable Neighbor "
Detlef Braag commented on national radio station
Deutschlandfunk of Cologne (11/25): "This unperturbed way
with which Lukashenko invalidates law and order via decrees
and considers the alleged will of the people incorporated
in his own person, does not bode well for...Belarus. The
country is only one and a half flight hours away from
Berlin. The country is also a dubious ally for Russia
which will certainly make the best of a bad thing.
Belarus has a border with Poland, one of the most
promising candidates for NATO.... But, on the other hand,
who would dare in Moscow to put his hand into the fire for
Belarus in view of Lukashenko's clear domestic policy
unpredictabilities? He cannot consider any of his
neighboring countries to be a friend. The question is
whether Moscow will be pleased at this as the eyes of the
world watch."
BRITAIN: "Lukashenko Sets Sights On 'Slav Superstate'"
The conservative Times had this report from its East
European correspondent in Minsk (11/26): "The young and
brash Aleksandr Lukashenko yesterday celebrated his
landslide victory in Sunday's referendum which, in effect,
granted the autocratic leader one-man rule over the country
into the next century. The victory may have been a
remarkable achievement for a man who was a virtual unknown
two years ago when he was swept to office vowing to stamp
out corruption. But his aggressive and unpredictable
nature is also likely to cause concern throughout the
strategic region, which straddles the fault lines between
East and West. Since coming to power, Mr. Lukashenko has
deliberately courted controversy with the West and has made
clear that his political ambitions stretch beyond his
country's borders.... The president has made little secret
of his desire to play a leading role one day in creating a
Slav superstate."
FRANCE: "Moscow Could Decide To Remove Lukashenko"
Left-of-center Le Monde published these comments (11/26)
from an interview with Jonathan Eyal, a British expert on
European security issues: "The Belarus president excites
the worst instincts of his people, such as xenophobia and
hatred.... Belarus has always suffered from all the ills
of the former Soviet Union without enjoying any of its
strengths. It had no ethnic identity and managed to become
independent by accident.... The real threat for Europe has
nothing to do with nuclear missiles. It is linked to the
possibility of an explosion of violence with great waves
of refugees.... Sooner or later, the West will have to
take measures against Lukashenko.... Today, unity between
Russia and Belarus would mean only disadvantages for
Moscow. Russia cannot afford to support the Belarus
economy, which is in ruins.... If Lukashenko refuses a
compromise, the Kremlin may decide to remove him with the
help of the Belarus army, over which Russia continues to
have great influence."
"Lukashenko's Referendum: 'Confirmation Of A Fait
Accompli'"
Irina de Chikoff wrote in right-of-center Le Figaro
(11/25): "The referendum, according to a Minsk observer,
`is just confirmation of a fait accompli. The coup has
already taken place. Lukashenko does practically what he
wants.'... Lukashenko knows he cannot be beaten when
he plays his favorite role: that of the offended victim
who is simply defending his honor and that of his
humiliated people."
ITALY: "Victory, Or Fraud?"
Enrico Franceschini filed from Minsk in left-leaning,
influential La Repubblica (11/26): "The day after the
referendum, two truths clash in Belarus. The president,
Aleksander Lukashenko, announces his overwhelming
victory...and the opposition denounces a gigantic fraud....
From Moscow, Boris Yeltsin signals that everything is
allright, and we understand why. Russia received from
Minsk its nuclear missiles...and in 1993 the Russian
president passed a new constitution by the same method,
that is a controversial popular referendum. Now he cannot
criticize Lukashenko for having followed his example.
What is the moral of the story? Today the (strong) leaders
have become more clever: They rule with plebiscite
democracy, driving it through the mass media and security
apparatus."
"An Embarrassment For Moscow"
Piero Sinatti wrote in leading financial Il Sole 24-Ore
(11/26): "If the referendum is a defeat for the
opposition...it is no less embarrassing for Moscow, since
it nullified last week's mediation effort and compromise."
"A Soviet Referendum"
A report from Moscow in centrist, top-circulation Corriere
della Sera commented (11/25): "A very Soviet referendum in
the most Soviet of the republics of the former USSR. The
outcome of the vote is practically already decided. In
theory, the Belarus people can choose between approving
President Lukashenko's constitutional project or the
project of the parliament. But, in reality, many do not
even know that an alternative project exists and almost
nobody knows exactly what it involves.... This is a
circumstance which could make the electoral result dubious
in the eyes of international observers."
BELGIUM: "Democracy Assassinated In Minsk"
Michel Rosten commented in conservative Catholic La Libre
Belgique (11/27), "As far as the Europeans are concerned,
what can they do? On Monday, they pulled their favorite
communique from their files stating for the umpteenth time
their 'strong concern in light of the situation in (fill in
the blank).' They added: 'The European Union reiterates
that it wishes to have a strong relationship based on
cooperation with a Belarus which is committed to democratic
principles and economic reforms.' This wish will have
undoubtedly shaken Mr. Lukashenko who will probably offer a
case of vodka as a token of gratitude to his colleagues at
the OSCE summit early next month. What a pity that the
Europeans did not have the dignity to react like Washington
which, as early as Monday, refused to recognize the results
of a referendum which it considers 'neither free nor
fair.'"
##
For more information, please contact:
U.S. Information Agency
Office of Public Liaison
Telephone: (202) 619-4355
12/10/96
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