DATE=12/7/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=RUSSIA / BELARUS
NUMBER=5-44920
BYLINE=EVE CONANT
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Russia and Belarus are expected to sign a
"Union Treaty" Wednesday, laying the foundation for a
future merger of the two former Soviet states. (The
treaty was first due to be signed late November, but
was postponed after Russian President Boris Yeltsin
fell ill.) The union concept has wide support in both
countries, despite resistance from nationalists in
Belarus and liberals in Moscow. Correspondent Eve
Conant reports the treaty is seen by many as a
symbolic step linked to Russia's parliamentary and
presidential elections.
TEXT: Leaders of both Russia and Belarus have
heralded the union as the dawn of a new era of closer
relations between the two countries. The signing will
be a long-awaited victory for Belarus President
Alexander Lukashenko. For several years the
authoritarian leader has called for closer economic
and diplomatic ties with Russia.
The treaty calls for the two states to retain their
sovereignty, but form a confederation governed by
officials from both countries. It also calls for a
single currency, uniform tax, and border laws and
harmonized legislature by the year 2005.
But Andrei Kortunov, President of the Moscow Public
Science Foundation, says the treaty signing is more of
a political ploy than an economic pledge.
/// ACT KORTUNOV ///
The elections are coming, and of course there is
not much to demonstrate in terms of the economy
or in terms of political developments in the
country. Nationalism is becoming more popular.
For the people sitting in the Kremlin right now,
it is a kind of cheap way to get more
popularity.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Kortunov adds that while the treaty is popular
among average Russians, others fear that welcoming the
authoritarian Mr. Lukashenko into Russian politics
could be dangerous.
The coordinator of the Moscow branch of the Heritage
Foundation, Yevgeny Volk, explains that for the west
and for many Russian liberals, joining with Belarus is
considered a step backward.
/// ACT VOLK ///
In fact it is a demonstration by Russia that it
is not going to obey the West, it is not going
to integrate into Western structures. It is
going to develop an alliance with a state which
is believed by many to be a rouge state where
human rights are abused, and where there is no
freedom of expression.
/// END ACT ///
The Nationalist opposition in Belarus also opposes the
treaty. In November, several-thousand protestors in
the capital Minsk demonstrated against the union.
Opposition leaders liken the union to the occupation
of Belarus by Russia, and say it could give President
Lukashenko even more sweeping powers.
Analyst Volk says the Belarussian economy is so
backward that any union would put a further drain on
Russia's already shaky finances.
/// SECOND ACT VOLK ///
The Belarussian economy is the same socialist
economy which existed 10-years ago with the
Soviet Union. There was no actual
privatization, no reforms. The Belarus economy
is surviving a very deep and comprehensive
crisis, and the burden of that survival will be
laid on Russia.
/// END ACT ///
/// OPT ///
But many average Russians say they support the union.
For elderly people such as Lyubov Yermakova, the idea
of uniting the two states feeds a nostalgia for a
stable Soviet past.
/// ACT YERMAKOVA IN RUSSIAN AND FADE UNDER ///
She says I am happy about it, everyone should unite as
they did in Soviet times - we will be stronger that
way.
But a man on the street says Belarus is too poor to
join with Russia.
/// ACT MAN IN RUSSIAN IN FULL AND FADE UNDER ///
He says Belarus will just be begging us for bread -
Russia should exist on its own.
/// END OPT ///
Other opponents of the agreement say it could allow
Belarussian leader Lukashenko to run for president of
the merged states, or serve as a pretext for Russian
President Boris Yeltsin to remain in power. But for
now, most analysts expect little will change. They
say the treaty is more symbolism than meaning,
representing a show of strength rather than economic
improvement. (SIGNED)
NEB/EC/GE/ENE/RAE
07-Dec-1999 11:48 AM EDT (07-Dec-1999 1648 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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