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The Proliferation Primer

Introduction

On November 12, 1997, President Clinton extended his 1994 Executive Order finding "É that the prolifera-tion of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons (' weap-ons of mass destruction') and of the means of delivering such weapons, constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United StatesÉ[ and] declare[ d] a national emer-gency to deal with that threat." Then, on November 14, 1997, the President called for action "É in the face of what I consider to be one of three or four most significant security threats that all of our people will face in the next whole gen-eration, this weapons of mass destruction proliferation. We've got to stop it." On No-vember 23, 1997, during an appearance on Meet the Press, Secretary of Defense William Cohen added, "we have a [pro-liferation] threat that's out there, it's growing."

These are strong words that suggest the need for strong action. To carry on business as usual could make the problem more serious by emboldening proliferators. By speaking loudly but carrying a small stick the Clinton Administration risks its nonproliferation credibility and America's security.

This Proliferation Primer discusses proliferation by the major suppliers of weapons of mass destruction tech-nology, missile delivery systems, and key enabling tech-nologies by examining cases in the public record.

It includes evidence that implicates Russia, China, and North Korea, and it questions the current responses of the Clinton Administration to deal with the realities of proliferation and to assure the protection of America's interests.

The Proliferation Primer compares the Wassenaar Ar-rangement to its predecessor export control regime, COCOM, assessing whether the elimination of COCOM has given rogue nations and their suppliers increased access to the technology of the West. It also considers the conse-quences of the Clinton Administration's new policies that limit the controls over the export of dual- use technology, such as supercomputers.

The Primer examines the increasing availability of missile hardware and expertise and discusses the difficulties of predicting when and how technological advances will occur.

The United States, like Gulliver, is a giant vulnerable to smaller nations. But unlike Gulliver, who was tied down while blissfully unaware of his surroundings, our government knows the new dangers presented by the world's rogue regimes. Now is the time to take decisive action to protect ourselves from the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems.

By speaking loudly but carrying a small stick the Clinton Administration risks its nonproliferation credibility and America's security.

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