REPORT ON TRIP TO INDONESIA, VIETNAM, AND HONG KONG (Senate - September 30, 1996)
[Page: S12027]
Report of the Mission of Senator Thad Cochran to Asia June 28-July 8, 1996
PURPOSE
Senator Cochran welcomed the Republican Leader's authorization to visit Indonesia, Vietnam, and the colony of Hong Kong. His delegation was officially hosted by the respective American embassies and consulates and met with senior officials in each of these locations.
Enroute to Indonesia Senator Cochran had the opportunity to meet with the U.S. Commander-in-Chief of U.S. Pacific Command, Admiral Joseph Prueher, and the Commander of the Third Marine Expeditionary Force, Major General Rollings, for briefings on Asian Security issues.
During the July 2-3 stay in Indonesia, the delegation discussed security and trade issues concerning Indonesia and Asia. Senator Cochran was honored at a reception for Indonesian participants in the Cochran Fellowship program, administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of International Cooperation and Development.
In Vietnam from July 3-5, the Senator met with representatives of Vietnam's government to discuss the renewed bilateral relations and defense and trade issues concerning Vietnam and Asia. In addition, Senator Cochran represented the Senate at the American Community Celebration, a gathering commemorating the Fourth of July. This was the first such celebration since the normalization of relations between the two countries.
The July 5-7 talks in Hong Kong focused on regional issues and the coming transition of sovereignty of the colony from the United Kingdom of Great Britain to the People's Republic of China.
Enroute to Washington, D.C., Senator Cochran met at Fort Lewis, Washington, with Lieutenant General C.G. Marsh, Commander of the U.S. Army I. Corps.
COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF, U.S. PACIFIC COMMAND BRIEFING
Senator Cochran was briefed on June 29, 1996, by Admiral Joseph Prueher, Commander-in-Chief of U.S. Pacific Command. The area of responsibility for Pacific Command comprises 100 million square miles spanning fourteen time zones. The vast geography of the region compounds the ever-present challenge facing our military of trying to forecast where the next problem will be before it occurs.
Approximately 100,000 U.S. service personnel are forward deployed in the Asia-Pacific region, most of which are in Japan and South Korea. The security brokered in the region by the United States since the end of World War II has played a pivotal role in creating the conditions necessary for economic prosperity in the region. This prosperity has a direct effect on the United States, as 37% of U.S. exports are to Asia and the Pacific.
The U.S. strategy in the region is one of `cooperative engagement,' and our regional strategic objectives flow from this strategy: to maintain U.S. influence in the region; promote an environment of trust and cooperation; deny hegemonic control of the region; guarantee lines of communications; deter armed conflict in the region; and, enhance interoperability with our allies in Asia and the Pacific. Admiral Prueher
underscored the fact that our strategy, and our strategic objectives, can only be satisfied if the U.S. military retains a credible warfighting capability in the region and around the world.
There are several sources of instability in the region that are of concern to Admiral Prueher: the prospect of regional conflict, such as in Korea or between India and Pakistan; the many issues surrounding the future of the People's Republic of China, to include questions on the future status of Hong Kong, the PRC's relationship with the Republic of China, and the PRC's continued participation in the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile delivery systems, this proliferation by itself being one of Admiral Prueher's chief concerns; religious and ethnic conflict; drug trafficking; and territorial disputes, such as the Spratley Islands issue.
With particular regard to one aspect of the proliferation problem in the region, Admiral Prueher noted that there is `almost overwhelming evidence' that the PRC has supplied missiles to Pakistan.
Admiral Prueher gave an insightful analysis of the recently-concluded PRC `missile tests' around the Republic of China just prior to the election of President Lee Teng-Hui. While the United States was not seeking overt confrontation with the PRC, but to have a `measured response,' American actions were designed to signal China that it was prepared to stand by its commitment to the Republic of China and to signal our allies in the region that the U.S. security commitment to the entire region remains strong.
In responding to a question, Admiral Prueher said that the Chinese ballistic missiles performed as expected, and that these `missile tests' underscored the need for rapid deployment of highly effective theater missile defense systems, such as the THAAD and Navy Upper Tier systems.
Admiral Prueher is hopeful that the U.S. Navy will be able to continue to use Hong Kong as it currently does after July 1, 1997, and believes that full IMET for Indonesia would be very helpful in both maintaining our relationship with Indonesia and improving the lives of Indonesians. Placing restrictions on IMET for Indonesia makes it more difficult to influence the future direction of the Indonesian military.
OKINAWA
The delegation made a brief stop in Okinawa and had the opportunity to meet with Marine Corps Major General Wayne Rollings, Commander the Third Marine Expeditionary Force, Air Force Brigadier General Hobbins, and Consul General O'Neill. The delegation's visit occurred in the wake of Secretary of Defense Perry's negotiations with Japan to reduce the U.S. force presence on Okinawa, to include reducing the number of bases there. General Rollings, III MEF Commander, discussed the need for access to larger training areas to keep the Marines of III MEF properly trained. He also explained the ongoing coordination that occurs with CINCPAC to ensure that U.S. forces in the region are prepared to respond as necessary to any forseeable contingency.
INDONESIA
Indonesia has had steady growth in its economy for the last thirty years, increasing its per capita income from $60-$70 in the mid-1960's to approximately $1,000 today. The Indonesian economy has a growth rate of 7%-8% per year, and is projected to be the fifth largest economy in the world by 2020. Indonesia, in terms of population, is currently the world's fourth largest nation and is the world's most populous Islamic nation.
The United States is the largest foreign investor in Indonesia, though if oil and natural gas investments are removed, both Japan and Europe invest more. The Japanese government is doing a great deal to help its businesses gain market share there, providing approximately $2 billion per year in soft loans to Indonesia and to Japanese businesses that invest here.
Indonesia is a large importer of a wide range of agricultural commodities. It is currently America's 14th largest agricultural export market, with the dollar value of U.S. agrciutlural exports having tripled in the last five years. U.S. cotton imports have increased by 58% in just the last year, Indonesia is the second largest foreign market for Washington State apples, and Indonesians are willing to pay more for U.S. beef. Indonesians like American products.
Indonesia is a country in transition. Half of its population has been born since President Suharto ascended to the leadership of Indonesia, and, while the country's economy is growing strongly, the political expectations of the burgeoning middle class have not yet been met. The human rights situation, particularly in East Timor, though improving, is not satisfactory. However, the human rights violations that have occurred have not, by and large, been committed by military officers trained in the United States. In fact, it is the American-trained officers that American embassy officials are able to go to in seeking to find out the facts when there is a human rights problem involving the military.
It was because of human rights violations that Indonesia's participation in the International Military Education and Training (IMET) program has been reduced, albeit under the curious name of `expanded' IMET. Of the 109 countries participating in IMET in FY '95, only Indonesia's participation was curtailed. During the delegation's visit U.S. Ambassador Stapleton Roy expressed a strong desire for restoring full IMET to Indonesia, telling Senator Cochran that singling Indonesia out for special treatment could ultimately mean the difference between friendly and a hostile regime. This consideration is particularly important in light of the fact that, in times of heightened tensions or crisis ranging from the Mediterranean to the Pacific, American naval forces must transit Indonesia's water when traveling between the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Minister for Production and Distribution Sastrosoenarto
The delegation's first meeting with an Indonesian official was with Hartarto Sastrosoenarto, Minister for Production and Distribution.
Minister Sastrosoenarto stated that imports are surging in wheat and noodles. Indonesia is interested in becoming self-supporting in other agricultural commodities, such as corn, sugar, and rice. However, particularly with regard to rice, Indonesian farmers are having a difficult time growing enough to satisfy demand, despite the fact that noodles have become such a popular staple.
While Indonesia imports cotton from the United States, Minister Sastrosoenarto mentioned that his importers have recently begun to complain that some American cotton has been shipped to Indonesia with a fungus.
To help transition to a free market, the government is actively involved in a step by step removal of subsidies in the distribution sector. Minister Sastrosoenarto went on to state the importance of continuing to reform the economy to help generate a larger middle class and enhance social stability. As part of the transition to a free market, he went on to say that the government would be privatizing large portions of the national infrastructure, such as power generation, telecommunications, and harbors.
Minister Sastrosoenarto commented that the legal system is weak and must be improved to create a strong legal framework emphasizing support for private property as an incentive for continued growth.
Finally, the Minister expressed his hope that at some point in the future ASEAN and NAFTA can be formally linked together.
Agency for National Logistics Administration (BULOG)
The delegation next met with Dr. Beddu Amang, Chairman of the Agency for National Logistics Administration (BULOG).
Dr. Amang mentioned that trade in agricultural commodities with the United States is continuing to grow, citing soybeans as an example of a commodity which is completely imported from abroad, 90% of which comes from the United States.
While four million tons of wheat per year is imported by Indonesia, almost 50% of that wheat comes from Australia while just over 10% comes from the United States. In response to a question from Senator Cochran, Dr. Amang attributed Indonesia's low imports of U.S. wheat to high levels of dust that have been found on imported American wheat (also a problem with U.S. soybeans, though not as widespread) and the higher shipping costs (relative to Australia) from the United States. Wheat that only takes six days to be shipped from Australia takes on average 23 days to come from the United States.
Dr. Amang mentioned that Indonesia makes extensive use of GSM-102 credits, particularly for soybeans and corn, though the bank charges are expensive and the repayment period (three years) is too short. Despite these problems with the GSM-102 credits, and despite the fact that Indonesia would like to become self-sufficient in growing corn, corn imports for feed are increasing every year.
Dr. Amang expressed the hope that U.S. investment in Indonesian agriculture would increase, to which Senator Cochran stressed the importance of Indonesia's continuing to enhance its legal system to protect the sancity of contracts, as well as the need to continue to decentralize the Indonesian distribution system.
Other meetings
The delegation was pleased to have the opportunity to meet with graduates of the Cochran Fellows program and listen to their stories of how they've taken the lessons learned from their exposure to the American marketplace back to Indonesia to build prosperous careers and businesses. The delegation met with a cross section of Indonesians involved in government, the military, private business, and think tanks at an informal dinner hosted by Ambassador and Mrs. Roy. The delegation also had a productive breakfast with representatives from the American Chamber of Commerce in Jakarta.
SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF VIETNAM
After years of contentious relations, including Vietnam's invasion and occupation of Cambodia, on July 11, 1995, President Clinton announced his decision to establish ambassadorial-level relations with Vietnam. In recent years Vietnam has improved its political and economic relations abroad, while bettering its economic situation domestically. Vietnam has worked to complete a Cambodian settlement, and appears to have made progress on the prisoners of war/missing in action (POW/MIA) and other issues of great interest to the United States.
Vietnam moved to become a new member of the Association of Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN) in 1995. Since that time, Vietnam has indicated its desire to join the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) group and the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Now in their tenth year, economic reforms in Vietnam continue to make progress toward a more open market. The delegation observed the beginnings of a growing, vibrant economy based on family-owned small businesses.
At the time of Senator Cochran's visit, the Communist Party of Vietnam had just completed its Eighth Congress. The Congress conducted a review of its policies, focusing in particular on domestic economic reforms. While changes in the top three leadership positions were expected, no changes took place. The Party Congress determined that the country would continue on its present course of economic reform.
Upon arrival in Hanoi on Wednesday, July 3, the delegation met with Embassy staff for a briefing. Embassy staff provided a thorough briefing on all relevant issues, including an excellent presentation on the status of operations to resolve outstanding cases of POW/MIAs.
During each of his meetings, Senator Cochran stressed the importance of a full accounting of the POW/MIA question as a necessary precondition to continuing to improve relations between the Socialist Republic of Vietnam and the United States.
Deputy Foreign Minister Vo Khoan
Senator Cochran was the guest of honor at a July 3, dinner hosted by Deputy Foreign Minister Vo Khoan. The Deputy Foreign Minister stated that he had a chance to welcome several delegations from the United States over the last year, and that he was pleased with the improved relations between the two countries. He looked forward to the arrival of a new ambassador and the completion of negotiations over a bilateral trade agreement.
Deputy Foreign Minister Khoan discussed the open foreign policy Vietnam is pursuing. He noted the recent admission of Vietnam to ASEAN and its application to join APEC. He added that Vietnam was paying increasing attention to the Asia-Pacific region and to improving relations with its neighbors, China, Cambodia and Laos.
On the domestic side, he stressed that Vietnam had overcome economic and social problems and was entering a new era of development, which will focus on industrialization. He stated that the Vietnamese government wants to encourage the creation of small-and medium-sized businesses. In addition, at the recently completed Eighth Congress of the Communist Party, the government resolved to continue economic and political reform. He also mentioned that the President of China, Li Peng, came to Vietnam and addressed the Party Congress. President Li Peng's visit was a last minute surprise, and was the first time China had sent such a high ranking delegation to Vietnam.
Senator Cochran and Deputy Foreign Minister Khoan also discussed issues concerning POW/MIAs. The Deputy Foreign Minister explained that there had been good efforts by both sides on this issue, and that he expected continued cooperation.
On the issue of the repatriation of Vietnamese refugees from abroad, the Deputy Foreign Minister indicated that there is no problem for these individuals returning to Vietnam. One the problems in the South China Sea, the Deputy Foreign Minister recognized it as an important issue. He stated that all countries have agreed to resolve problems through negotiations, but the negotiations are difficult.
Breakfast with the American Chamber of Commerce Chapter
In Hanoi on Thursday morning, July 4, Senator Cochran was a breakfast guest of the American Chamber of Commerce. There are over 400 registered American companies in Vietnam, an increase of over 100 since January, 1996.
Senator Cochran stated that he was anxious to see how he could be helpful in continuing to develop relations between the two countries. While the POW/MIA issue is still the preeminent concern of U.S. policy, he said that the United States must begin also to focus on opening markets in Vietnam, for American firms.
Several members of the Chamber emphasized the need for services of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) and the Export-Import Bank. If American firms are going to compete in the burgeoning Vietnam market, the services and programs administered by these agencies are critical to success.
The members of the Chamber strongly complimented American Charge d' Affaires Desaix Anderson and the Embassy staff for the excellent job they had done in promoting economic issues and American businesses in Vietnam.
Deputy Minister of Defense Nguyen Thoi Bung
The delegation next visited with Deputy Minister of Defense Nguyen Thio Bung and several other members of the Vietnamese military.
Deputy Minister of Defense Bung described the work of the Vietnamese government to account for American POW/MIAs. He emphasized that the Vietnamese government had conducted a large number of unilateral investigations of cases before the 1988 POW/MIA agreement were reached with the United States. Between 1988 and 1992, over forty joint excavations for remains were conducted by the United States and Vietnam. From 1992 to the present the joint efforts have been even greater. The focus of the upcoming excavations will be on the central highlands of Vietnam. He stated that the Vietnamese have shown good will by taking American teams into his country's most sensitive areas, including Cam Ranh Bay and several military depots.
He emphasized that the Vietnamese treat the POW/MIA issue as a humanitarian issue and want to successfully resolve this issue. Hopefully, the successful resolution of this issue will help bring the countries together by closing the past so the people can look to the future. He also mentioned that Vietnam still has over 300,000 MIA cases of its own.
He declared that Vietnam has joined ASEAN to build peace, stability, security and prosperity in Asia. As for military relations with the United States, he indicated that the Vietnamese government was pleased with the appointment of a military attache to the American embassy. He was confident that such an appointment would promote friendship between the two countries' armed forces.
In responding to Senator Cochran's question about his views on what the biggest security threat is to the region's stability, the Deputy Minister responded that international strategists see the Asia-Pacific region as the most stable in the world, but that there is some concern over the South China Sea. He explained that there are some disputes over sovereignty of the Spratleys, but that there is regional agreement that the disputes should be resolved through negotiations. He also stated that there continue to be potentially unstable elements in Korea and Cambodia.
On the issue of the recent actions taken by the People's Republic of China against Taiwan, the Deputy Minister indicated that it was an internal affair between China and Taiwan. He said that if they could not settle it, it could affect the stability and security of the region.
Minister of Trade Le Can Triet
The delegation next met with Minister of Trade Le Can Triet and discussed several bilateral trade issues, including the ongoing negotiations over a bilateral trade agreement, and human rights issues.
Senator Cochran indicated that the United States Trade Representative had provided a blueprint to the Vietnamese government concerning some of the issues to be negotiated in order to reach a bilateral trade agreement. He asked if there was a likelihood that the United States would receive a response to its blueprint in the near future.
Minister Triet explained that the Vietnamese are looking through a list of many questions on the issues that have been discussed. He stated that during the May meeting Vietnam raised several questions to be further negotiated. Currently, the two sides are studying the draft. He indicated that the discussions had been frank, with good will on both sides, and that both sides are patiently listening and working through issues. The Trade Minister stated that while any agreement must reflect mutual benefits, the countries cannot avoid differences and that it will take time to fit different systems together.
The Trade Minister also discussed Vietnam's application for membership in APEC and WTO. He stated that Vietnam wanted to prove its willingness to move toward freer trade. Vietnam wants to become more deeply involved in the world community and the world economy.
Reception at American Charge d'Affaires Residence
This was a formal reception for much of the diplomatic community in Vietnam celebrating the 4th of July. Charge d'Affaires Anderson, the Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister, Senator Cochran, and Governor Frank Keating of Oklahoma all spoke to the assembled audience, which included the diplomatic corps, military representatives from many countries and representatives from the international business community.
Minister of Foreign Affairs Nguyen Manh Cam
The delegation next met with Foreign Affairs Minister Nguyen Manh Cam. The Foreign Minister stated that world opinion could be reassured concerning the outcome of the recent Communist Party Congress. Vietnam intends to maintain its current course of development by continuing policies of openness, diversification and modernization.
In foreign relations, Minister Cam recounted Vietnam's tradition of having good relations with its neighbors and friends, and stated that Vietnam's foreign policy is consistent with global and regional integration. The Foreign Minister stressed the importance of moving relations between the United States and Vietnam forward, saying that it is important to make up for lost time and to work to overcome past animosities. He was pleased at the progress in relations since normalization.
The Foreign Minister was very pleased with Secretary Christopher's visit in August, 1995, when the United States and Vietnam agreed to boost economic development and make trade a top priority. Since 1994-95, there has been a four-fold increase in trade between Vietnam and the United States, which was done in the absence of Most Favored Nation (MFN) status. He also indicated that if Export-Import Bank financing, OPIC loan guarantees and MFN status were granted, the United States could become Vietnam's largest trading partner. The Foreign Minister emphasized the need for and importance of granting a Jackson-Vanik waiver.
With regard to the trade agreement talks, the Foreign Minister stated that the signing of a trade agreement is of great importance, but that it will take some time. The current negotiations were brought about through very intensive talks in October and November. The Foreign Minister urged Senator Cochran to help move the process forward. With regard to the POW/MIA issues, Foreign Minister Cam stated that Vietnam had fully cooperated, is cooperating, and will continue to cooperate.
Senator Cochran asked for the Foreign Minister's assistance in resolving the current impasse over the establishment of the American ambassador's residence. The Foreign Minister said that it was a concern, but said that the United States enjoys the best technical facilities in Vietnam in comparison to other countries. He indicated that the Vietnamese government would continue to work with the United States to find a suitable location and that he would try his best to get the most appropriate location for the residence.
The Foreign Minister also discussed the appointment of a new ambassador to Vietnam. He stated that the appointment of an ambassador is a way to ensure the continued development of normalization. He said that the nominee, United States Representative Pete Peterson, would make a strong contribution to bilateral relations.
At the close of the meeting, Senator Cochran presented to the Foreign Minister a statement Senator Claiborne Pell entered into the Congressional Record on June 20, 1996. The statement commended the life of Deputy Foreign Minister, Le Mai, who has recently passed away.
The delegation's last official meeting in Vietnam was with National Assembly Chairman Manh. The Chairman discussed the recently concluded Party Congress and stated that the Congress presented a good opportunity to review Vietnam's Policy of Renewal. He stated that the Congress had many discussions on moving Vietnam into the 21st century.
In the area of foreign affairs, the Chairman indicated that Vietnam has broadened its approach and was pursuing an open foreign policy. He contended it was his strong desire to increase ties between the United States Senate and the Vietnamese Parliament.
Responding to Senator Cochran's question about how the recent Party Congress affected the National Assembly and if the National Assembly would play a larger role in Vietnam, Chairman Manh stated that the Congress plays an important role in the process of renewal. He explained that from now on Vietnam would work to move their national industrialization to a higher level. He further stated Vietnam's intention to continue to build its country based on the rule of law and enhancing the role of the judiciary and other institutions.
On improving the legal system, Chairman Manh states that Vietnam had changed its laws to create a more favorable investment environment. Laws to improve the economy, laws related to foreign investment and the commercial code are in the process of being drafted and will be subject to debate in October.
American Community Celebration
Senator Cochran joined with over 500 people at a picnic to celebrate the Fourth of July. Charge d'Affaires Anderson, Senator Cochran and Governor Keating all addressed an enthusiastic crowd.
HONG KONG
Codel Cochran arrived in Hong Kong on July 7 and departed July 9. While in Hong Kong the delegation was briefed by the U.S. Embassy Country Team and held meetings with Governor Christopher Patten, the American Chamber of Commerce, and Democratic Party Chairman Martin Lee. The delegation also met informally with Preparatory Committee members Paul Cheng and Frederick Fung, the Better Hong Kong Foundation, academics, civil servants and representatives of the U.S. business community.
There are several issues of direct interest to the United States related to Hong Kong's transfer to the People's Republic of China on July 1, 1997. The principal security issue concerns the question of whether the U.S. Navy will be able to continue to use Hong Kong as a frequent port of call in Asia.
The U.S. Consul General's staff is unaware of any official response by the PRC on the question of whether the U.S. Navy will be able to continue to use Hong Kong as it currently does. Unofficial contacts on the matter have received favorable responses from PRC military officials; however, there has been no response from the political leadership. The lack of military piers in Hong Kong means U.S. ships would have to tie up at commercial moorings. The Chinese Navy is building a base, but it is unclear whether the U.S. would be allowed to use it. Hong Kong's importance to the U.S. Navy for ship visits is underscored by its location. Hong Kong is the closest to deployment tracks of U.S. Navy vessels. Other, such as Australia, Japan and Thailand are far off the deployment track. Approximately 70 U.S. Navy ships currently visit Hong Kong each year.
The ship visits issue relates to the general issue of continuity--something sought by people of Hong Kong. The U.S. hopes Beijing realizes that changing the practice on visits by U.S. Navy ships would send the wrong signal and undermine confidence in the territory.
The strategy for U.S. diplomacy on Hong Kong over the past year and a half has been to speak more publicly on commerce, law enforcement, ship visits, consular issues and to let Governor Patten speak on Hong Kong's unique qualities, such as the high degree of civil liberties and the rule of law. The Consulate has tried to raise the level of attention paid to these issues and encourage attention to be paid in and by official Washington, including visits by Members of Congress to Hong Kong and to Beijing, and hearings on Capitol Hill.
Few problems are anticipated in connection with the continuance in force of various U.S.-Hong Kong bilateral agreements. Several are pending, including a civil aviation agreement and an extradition treaty; a bilateral investment treaty needs to be negotiated as does a mutual legal assistance treaty. All are part of the policy, expressed in the U.S. Hong Kong Policy Act, to maintain a direct U.S.-Hong Kong relationship. The Act is the blueprint for this policy.
Another major issue confronting the U.S. is the status of the Consulate General and whether, after the People's Republic takes over Hong Kong on July 1, 1997, the consulate will be subordinated to the U.S. embassy in Beijing. Hong Kong is a very valuable post for the U.S. Fifteen U.S. government agencies are represented. Law enforcement is a particularly important function of the Consulate General. Several agencies are represented because Hong Kong is strategically located for gathering information on nuclear proliferation, weapons of mass destruction and narcotics. The Consulate General also plays an important role in promotion of U.S. business.
Governor Patten
Governor Patten noted the dramatic changes that had taken place in Hong Kong's infrastructure since his arrival in 1992, including progress on the new airport on Lamma Island, new bridges and reclamation in Victoria Harbor, and a new convention center.
Governor Patten called Hong Kong's situation astonishing in light of the fact that Britain's colonial governance usually ends with independence and self-governance for the former colony. Hong Kong's situation is different, he said, due to its history, alluding to the late 19th century Opium Wars and the concessions and leases through which Great Britain acquired Hong Kong island, Kowloon peninsula and the New Territories. The Governor said he had been criticized for admitting to having a `certain moral queasiness' over handing a free city over to a country with a different idea of freedom. Britain had attempted to solve its moral dilemma by negotiating a detailed arrangement for Hong Kong in the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration on the Question of Hong Kong which reflects the `one country, two systems' approach to Hong Kong's future under PRC sovereignty. Both the Joint Declaration and the Basic Law, the so-called `mini-constitution,' promulgated by the National People's Congress in Beijing, spell out a detailed prescription for preserving Hong Kong's free and pluralistic society.
While the Joint Declaration is very specific, the trick, according to the Governor, is making it work. Beijing doesn't get the best advice on making the system work. And the influence of Tiananmen was profound. Some in Beijing choose to blame Tiananmen on outside interference from places like Hong Kong. Ultimately, the influence of Tiananmen was greater on Beijing than on it was Hong Kong. The reaction to the events of Tiananmen in Beijing created problems in Sino-British relationship on Hong Kong including, financing the airport, passports for Hong Kongers, the Bill of Rights and arrangements for democratic elections. The Governor said the reason for negotiations over electoral reforms broke down was not Patten's desire to move more quickly, but the PRC's insistence that Great Britain cooperate in rigging the elections.
Nevertheless, in spite of difficulties, the transition, according to Patten, has gone very well. The economy is strong, particularly the currency as measured against the U.S. dollar. Reserves are large. Exports and investments are good. Unemployment is at 3.1%. Jobs are growing at 4%. There hasn't been any capital flight--though some offshore arrangements are being made. Exceptions to the pattern of confidence are the domiciling of companies in other British colonies, and the acquisition by up to 600,000 Hong Kongers of foreign passports.
The Governor rejected arguments that Hong Kong people don't care about human rights and democracy. Many of Hong Kong's people fled from repression in mainland China and know the difference between a society based on the rule of law and protection from arbitrary government. The very high number of newspapers in Hong Kong is another indication of the interest of Hong Kong's people in political matters affecting them. Another indication of what Hong Kong people care about is demonstrated by the polls done by Michael DeGolyer of the Hong Kong Transition Project. These polls indicate most anxieties related to the future and the transition are about freedoms of the press and association and whether these will exist after 1997. The polls also reflect a correlation between demographic groups and attitudes about the future. Women are more worried than men. Better educated are more worried than the less educated. Younger people are more worried than older people, and the most worried are those who, because of their education, age, or other characteristics, are able to emigrate.
In response to questions, the Governor said that Great Britain couldn't fix the inconsistencies between the Basic Law and the Joint Declaration, but was focusing on reforming Hong Kong's laws to make them consistent with the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. The Hong Kong government's law reform project is 80% done. Difficulties remain in the areas of official secrets and telephone surveillance. The Governor said his government is determined not to leave behind laws which could be abused by the PRC after 1997.
Other issues of concern include corruption. Hong Kong's police and Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) make Hong Kong the `cleanest city in Asia after Singapore. Any effort to take over and control the police would be a violation of the Joint Declaration and the Basic Law. The possibility of influence directed at Hong Kong's institutions by Beijing underscores the importance of a strong Chief Executive selected on the basis of merit.
Governor Patten said the PRC is serious about its threat to dismantle the Legislative Council (Legco), particularly because of the membership in the Legco of so many democrats. Here Patten said that the real reason for the collapse of talks over constitutional reform was not the specifics of his proposals but the PRC's demands that Great Britain be complicit in the abolition of the Legco and exclusion of certain democratic legislators unacceptable to Beijing. The PRC also demanded 2 member constituencies which would have had the effect of cutting in half the number of democrats elected. If the elections were conducted on one-man, one-vote geographical basis, Patten said, pro-democracy candidates would win 70% of the vote. Patten described Hong Kong's complicated system of election to the Legco based on 20 functional constituencies or electorates tied to workplace and professional associations, 10 electoral committee seats and 20 one-man, one-vote geographical constituencies.
Governor Patten said he was `very grateful' to the U.S. Senate for passing S. Res. 217 on June 28 supporting implementation of the Joint Declaration and expressing the position that it would regard establishment of an appointed legislature in Hong Kong as a violation of the Joint Declaration. The Governor said attention by other countries is very helpful to Hong Kong and that the U.S. matters the most of all to China. Since 1992 China has recognized that Hong Kong is an international city implicating international interests. Patten noted that the recent raising of Hong Kong by Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen in a meeting with Secretary of State Christopher wouldn't have happened a few years ago.
Governor Patten related an anecdote concerning Qiao Shi, the head of the National People's Congress. Qiao Shi, a rising figure in China, has said there is a huge amount of `face' involved in the PRC's handling of Hong Kong and that interest in Hong Kong by the U.S. has an impact on Beijing. The Governor said the U.S.-Hong Kong Policy Act provides the proper focus for U.S. interest in Hong Kong and it would be `very sad' if the U.S. stopped speaking out or stopped sending visitors.
In response to Senator Cochran's expression of concern about a textiles transshipment issue dividing the U.S. and Great Britain, Governor Patten reported that his government feels the U.S. has not worked within the rules of the WTO and that Great Britain is sensitive to IPR and strategic trade issues. The Governor asserted that the border between Hong Kong and the PRC and the integrity of Hong Kong must be demonstrated on textiles, IPR, and strategic trade.
Governor Patten said visits by U.S. Navy ships were very important financially and otherwise to Hong Kong, presented no significant problems from the sailors, and should continue after 1997.
Democratic Party Chairman Martin Lee
Mr. Lee observed that Hong Kong's future will be determined by China's current leadership situation which leads it to act confidently outside of China, but with weakness inside China. As examples, Mr. Lee gave the rearrest of and imprisonment for 14 years of Wei Jingsheng at the same time that Beijing is gathering up valuable contracts with Air France. The PRC is confident that the U.S. government won't react to its treatment of Wei. Yet, trade and human rights don't have to be mutually exclusive. Mr. Lee gave the example of the Canadian trade minister for Asia, Raymond Chan, who raised human rights on a trade mission to China.
The Taiwan elections were a very important day for Lee since they were the first democratic Chinese elections in 5,000 years. China's intimidation tactics both succeeded and failed. The show of force pleased the aging generals and possible the Chinese people, so internally it was a success. However, externally, the show of force was a disaster. Turning away a delegation of Hong Kong democrats who wanted to present a petition opposing the appointment of a provisional legislature in Hong Kong was also a public relations defeat. Beijing could have handled both differently but felt internal pressure not to appear weak.
On the question of whether Beijing will follow through on its threat to abolish the elected Legco, Mr. Lee said it depended on the type of opposition this threat draws. If only the Democrats oppose the move, Beijing will go ahead. However, support from others inside and outside Hong Kong for the elected legislature and its right to serve out its term could made a big difference in how Beijing proceeds. Recently, the details of the 17 rounds of negotiations between Great Britain and China became known. The Governor refused to acquiesce in PRC demands that Great Britain set up electoral laws which would disadvantage democrats and agree to provisions allowing China to exclude certain individuals from the legislature. The PRC also wants to retain repressive colonial laws that were rarely used by the British, and wants to get rid of the Bill of Rights, which is based on the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and confers power on the courts to strike down unconstitutional laws.
The PRC also wants to resurrect old versions of colonial laws which allow the government greater control over freedoms of expression and association. For example, an old law on assembling to march was amended to only require
notice to the police. The PRC wants to change the law back so that approval for a procession of more than 20 people has to be secured in advance. The power to define what kinds of gatherings require approval would be up to the PRC.
Mr. Lee said Senate Resolution 271 reiterating the Senate's support for the Joint Declaration and stating that an appointed legislature would violate the Joint Declaration was extremely important. Mr. Lee said that other countries need to act as well--but that someone has to lead. Mr. Lee said that in the past he had favored a quiet, behind-closed-doors approach, but that China's failure to abide by its commitments in the Joint Declaration has shown that approach to be ineffective.
On the question of selection of the Chief Executive, Mr. Lee said that China itself acknowledges the selection process is not democratic. The selection will be made by the Preparatory Committee, a Beijing-appointed body which includes key officials of the PRC, such as Foreign Minister Qian Qichen. The Preparatory Committee will select 400 Hong Kong people to select the Chief Executive. Three candidates have been identified so far--C.H. Tung, a shipping magnate and former member of the Governor's Executive Council considered close to the PRC, Anson Chan, the Chief Secretary of the Hong Kong Government, and T.S. Lo, a solicitor and PRC advisor.
On the question of what U.S. policy should be, Mr. Lee said it is a matter for the U.S. to decide but Mr. Lee added that the development of democracy and the rule of law anywhere in the world is beneficial to the U.S. The violation of international agreements by China or other countries is not in the U.S.'s interest and would create a bad precedent. Above all, however, consistency is most important. The U.S. should make a policy and stick with it.
Other Meetings:
The delegation also met informally with members of the Preparatory Committee, Paul Cheng and Frederick Fung, the Better Hong Kong Foundation, academics, civil servants and representatives of the U.S. business community to hear their concerns and recommendations for U.S. policy.
FORT LEWIS/MCCHORD AIR FORCE BASE, WASHINGTON
Shortly after arriving from Hong Kong the delegation had the opportunity to tour both McChord Air Force Base and the Army's Fort Lewis in Washington state. After the tour Senator Cochran and other members of the delegation had an informal dinner with Lieutenant General C.G. Marsh, Commander of the U.S. Army's I Corps. General Marsh, who has responsibility for the deployment of I Corps units in the Asia-Pacific region, commented that, having recently commanded U.S. forces in Korea, he is concerned about the volatility in the region. The situation is fluid and could erupt overnight, and the U.S. must be prepared to take action in Korea. General Marsh went on to state he has a close working relationship with others the delegation met with during the trip, such as Admiral Prueher (CINCPAC) and General Rollings (Commander, III MEF), and that their frequent interaction is a key aspect of the U.S. military's being prepared to act in the Asia-Pacific region, if necessary.
CONCLUSION
The Asia-Pacific region will dominate many aspects of American policy--foreign, security, trade--in the coming century. It is a region with stark contrasts: North Koreans reading recipes for cooking grass in `newspapers', starving in the cities and countryside, while their government spends money buying, building, and selling missiles and weapons of mass destruction; the Politburo of the People's Republic of China, allowing a market economy to run free in the south of the country while at the same time attempting to harness and repress the individual rights of its citizens to think and act freely, all the while increasing the size of its military--for example, building a `blue water' navy, building new classes of intercontinental ballistic missiles , to include the PRC's first land-based mobile ICBM--beyond any conceivable needs for self-defense ; the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, on the one hand proclaiming itself to be dedicated to the principles of communism yet, on the other hand, encouraging private business and freely allowing information into the country; and, the economic miracle that is most of Asia, where growth rates are the staggering envy of the rest of the world. This is a region that cannot be the afterthought of American policy in the 21st century.
American policy toward the region must take into account the differences within the region. In Indonesia, the United States must work with the government to improve its record of human rights while, at the same time, recognizing that Indonesia is a force for peace and stability in the region and has to be treated with respect. Restricting IMET participation for Indonesia is counterproductive.
In Vietnam, the United States must continue to insist on a full accounting of those American service members who are still missing or presumed dead. While there is every indication that the Vietnamese government is finally starting to cooperative fully with the United States on this problem, that cooperation must be sustained over a lengthy period of time to create the conditions for closer cooperation between our countries. During this period the United States should be doing everything possible to encourage the development of as open and free a market as possible; during the delegation's visit, it was clear that the Vietnamese government recognizes that its future financial prosperity depends upon allowing private ownership to take place and information flowing freely into the country. This is a country where eventual political reform will most likely be the by-product of an emerging market economy.
In Hong Kong, the United States must insist that the freedoms guaranteed by the Sino-British Joint Declaration are implemented by the People's Republic of China when Hong Kong reverts to PRC sovereignty on July 1, 1997. China has already made troubling assertions that it will not abide by parts of this Joint Declaration; these assertions can only be translated into reality if the government of the United States ignores its obligations under U.S. law.
Economic growth has accrued more than financial benefits to many of the citizens of the Asia-Pacific region. Free markets have blazed a path for free people, as the examples of elections in both the Republic of China and South Korea demonstrate. In Japan, our close friend and ally for the last half-century, we also see the political change that has come with the free market. Many other nations in the region are also taking a more serious attitude toward individual freedom, and it is clear that this change in attitude has almost always been preceded by a free, or freer, market.
America is the glue that binds the region together. Enmity is not quickly forgotten in Asia, and it is the American military presence in the presence in the region that has allowed to countries in the area to concentrate on economic growth rather than military expansion. The reassuring presence of an American carrier battle group--or the knowledge that one is often just over the horizon--has resulted in a stable environment that has been conducive to economic growth for many in the region.
The United States must remember that this is a region in which our ability to trade cannot be separated from our ability to defend our interests and, if need be, protect our friends. Our security guarantees must be credible. By allowing terrorist states like North Korea to acquire weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile delivery systems, some of our friends in the region have not-so-privately begun to worry about the credibility of the American security guarantee, particularly given the at best half-hearted effort by the Clinton Administration to build quickly effective defenses against ballistic missiles.
American vulnerability to coercion is not missed in Asia; unless the vulnerability if redressed, the credibility of the American security guarantee will evaporate, leading states that are now in an economic race into the invisible arms race. This can only work against American interest.
The United States will continue to succeed in the region, our trade will continue to grow, if we remember that military strength is respected, and it is upon this strength that American credibility is based. Our military must remain strong and visible in the region, and our security assurances to our allies must be carried out with the spirit, and not just the letter, of our arrangements in mind.
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