Russian Space Finance and Budget
Multiple Five Year Plans Reveal a Renewed Russian National Space Effort
© By Charles P. Vick (All Rights Reserved)
Senior Technical & Policy Analyst
4-26/29-11
The Russian Federal Space Agency and the Russian Academy of Sciences have been ordered to produce a long term space planning document by August 2011. That is the further development of the previous FSP 2006-2015 "expanded spaceflight development decision." It was based on the re appearance of the Soviet era like fiscal Five Year Plan [FYP] (2006-2010) and the next five year plan called the Forecast Plan (2011-2015) [the new present Five Year Plan ] cycle to the Russian Federal Space Agency developments. The plan will be based on matching and marrying existing and new systems capability as they become available to practical achievable scientific mission for the purpose of the joint Federal Space Agency and Academy of Science’s report. This will provide the Federal Space Agency and the Russian Federal Government planning on a S & T, policy and budgeting scale.
TsNIImash has Developed Three Different Strategic Scenarios for Consideration
TsNIImash under the Federal Space Agency is the historic seat of the Russian Space Industry thus they are the focus where the rest of the space industry studies are synthesized into a series of coherent realistic studies based on budget, political Science & Technology [S & T] policy requirements and industry capability. The Russian Federation Space Agency will add the present FYP [20112015 which they are already looking beyond 2015 with the 2016-2020 Forecast Plans and the 2021-2025 Future Outlook, Five Year Plan as well as the Long Term Outlook Plan out some 25 years to 2050. Above all these plans are to start in the 2016-2020 five year plans being drafted now. The work is aimed at the moon and beyond with the emphasis on the development of the nation’s space industry as not seen since the former Soviet Union’s efforts of the 1960-1970’s. At present the draft planning goes through 2035.
The crewed lunar missions would start in the mid 2021-2030 two five year plans followed by a lunar base in 2030’s and mars exploration in the early 2040’s. Those various proposals are in the detailed review stage for the national space industry and political leadership’s consideration before the final joint report. Emphasis is on development for lunar, mars and deep space exploration outside the Earth orbit confinement that has so stagnated space exploration since the 1970’s. This reflects the general global trends to move out from the home planet with human space development as well as the trend of other nations trying to catch up with the U. S. exploration experience before the beginning of crewed deep space & mars missions.
The Scope Setting the Direction & Intent of These Developments Reflecting Where They Want to be…..
Among the un-crewed deep space missions being considered are several planetary projects: Mercury-p, Venus-D, Mars and Sokol Laplas Jupiter spacecraft missions and their satellites for exploration as well as Luna-Globe and Luna-Resurs projects for lunar exploration. This includes the renewed Mars-Grunt “Phobos” efforts among twelve suggested Astrophysical and ten Solar Exploration projects for 8.4 billion rubles ($286 million) in the 2006-2010 period for completion before 2023 the middle of the 2021-2025 five year plan. Recently full international cooperation on these Solar exploration projects was agree to by 25 of the space agencies of the world. This will include concentration in such disciplines as crewed space flight, climate change, emergency situations and solar space exploration using un-crewed spacecraft. Additionally six more projects are to be started during the middle of the 2011-2015 five year plan and the following five year plan. All of these planetary research efforts are to be implemented by 2015 the end of the present five year plan. No funding has been received for the 2013 un-crewed lunar mission planned according to the Space Research Institute.
The aerospace top companies are also competing to promote their products to fill these national goals that are submitted to the Russian Federal Space Agency and TsNIImash for review consideration. The two main players being the S. P. Korolev, Energiya and The Khrunichev Space Center organizations have submitted their own concepts. Thus the Khrunichev Space Center has a program concept through 2025-2037 for manned lunar exploration that would start in 2012. It is the old lunar orbital station concept reworked with the project ending with a crew occupies permanent lunar base by 2037. The initial crewed lunar bases designed for two-week stays would appear during 2028-2029 followed by a second permanent phase in 2035-2037 all in the middle of five year planning concepts. All launches would be from the Cosmodrome Vostochny Space Center using the Rus-M or Angara derivation system that both complement and compete with one another as things stand now. Equally the S. P. Korolev Corporation has its own concept submitted for consideration that is more aimed at deep space & mars class missions over lunar missions.
Russian Crewed Lunar Plans
Russian manned lunar plans now are focused on the 2015-2025 two five year plan periods with the establishment of a Lunar Base by 2030 as well as sending manned missions to Mars by 2040. The previous outlook forecast planning of 2006-2010 called for a much later date for these events to take place buy a full decade of two five year plans beyond the new earlier considerations of the present plan. Mars crewed flights are only planned for after 2035-2037 the prospects of which are optimistic without international participation in a cooperative effort for any nation.
China is now planning crewed lunar flight with a crewed lunar landing in the end of two five year plans that encompasses 2021-2025 and 2026-2030. This is helping to motivate both Russia’s planning and the US space policy considerations. China is today totally committed to its multiple space station programs through three five year plans 2011-2015, 2016-2020 and 2021-2025 with emphasizes on autonomy. That space stations program with an overlap of the manned lunar efforts in the 2021-2025 five year plan is at the programs point of being operationally mature while the manned lunar effort is starting to receive emphasis in the transition to coming to fruition.
Serious Policy Argument
There are serious policy arguments on the lunar verses mars goals to direct the nation’s attention. These are built around the commercial, Science & Technology emphasis requirements of the Russian Federation government ongoing economic diversity of five basic industries efforts that include the development of a DARPA like R&D organization being developed for the military requirements beyond what the Federal Space Agency fulfills. The idea being on the part of the Russian Federation Government to apply from the total available discretionary government funding about 40% to basic Scientific Research to push the basic sciences and about 60 % of the available funding to push the basic technologies, (Research & Development) to drive the national economy and to provide for the Citizenry’s wellbeing. Above all, it is to provide for the National Security of the nation by keeping Russia technologically industrial base competitive with the rest of the world by two to two-and-one-half generations. In this respect it exactly mimics Western policy.
Neglect of basic S & T research has been noted over taxi transport sales to foreigners and autonomy but Russia dominated 40 % of the global space market launch services in 2010-11. They want to expansion that to 5% to 10% greater IE: 45-50% of market as well as more participation in international projects but an autonomous independent space effort. The global market has grown by 150% between 2003 and 2010 for Russia which was worth about 200 billion rubles through 2010 earned by the Russian organizations. “Deep modernization” of the space industry infrastructure and products with emphasis on reliability and longer service life in addition to the large R&D investments presently in progress is required to remain competitive in the global market.
The GLONASS is but one of those programs being developed through 2020. 407 million ruble is being invested for modernization of its ground based automated spacecraft control systems to be completed between May 2011 and 2013 for 85 spacecraft and 25 launches per year while cutting cost in half for these operations but even that is modest to the goals Russia is attempting to attain. The Russian Federal Space Agency plans to launch two space tourists to ISS for 2013 and one for lunar circumnavigation flight in 2015 financing provided. That project alone would require two flight tests before crewed operations but it is attainable. The nuclear powered spacecraft, nuclear rocket design study, development is also a critical part of this process that is laying the foundation for future developments.
S. P. Korolev Corporation has announced plans for a spacecraft pod capable of sweeping near earth orbit of many of its dead spacecraft and debris. It is being designed as a 60 billion Ruble ($1.9 billion) spacecraft system. Over ten year the nuclear powered satellite could last up to 15 years doing its directed job in geosynchronous orbit that could collect some 600 dead satellites and remove them properly. The spacecraft is planned for development by 2020 and completion no later than 2023.
Cosmodrome Vostochny is being constructed in the present FYP & next to completion with manned flight by 2018-2021. An economic spending unresolved budget issue is expected in-between the 2015-2016 two five year plan that required longer term planning stretch out to 2025 as noted above. To date it has budgeted 24 billion Rubles for 2011-2013 while 2014-2015 will get 57 billion Rubles for the modern new launch infrastructure. Continued use of the Baikonur Cosmodrome will involve 40 more years of payments of $115 million to rent the chosen facilities from Kazakhstan through 2050.
Critical Requirement
Critical to these greater market share earnings is the modernization of space booster production facilities with newer more efficient designs such as seen in the Rus-M and the Angara boosters and a major production increase to meet the market demand it has not achieve today with the present boosters in production that can in fact be achieved with the proper investments. Returning to the Former Soviet Union’s five year plan of unprecedented production capability would require a major effort not seen since the 1970’s but the income from it is well worth the efforts by the Russian Federation. If the Russian Federation were to achieve this, its income from launch services alone would be around $1 billion a year utilizing the variants of the highly reliable proven Soyuz and Proton boosters. Emphasis on the lack of enough launch vehicles for mission ordered for 2011 was clearly pointed out by the Federal Space Agency administrator Anatoly Perminov. In fact there are more launches planned for 2011 some (48) than previous year of (31) launches just hammers at this production around the clock shifts operation requirement because of the growing Russian capitalist economy requirements less it loose business so needed to sustain itself and the nation.
The need for more production to manufacture enough advanced spacecraft for the national needs is a criticism of older policy decisions on shorter life systems verses advanced longer life systems and producing enough of them to exceed requirements with spares at the ready for human error issues. The examples exhibited on this by the Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov was that “only five satellites have been built instead of the 11 ordered by Russian Space Forces with six commercial launches being put off in 2010. That is an exceptionally bad business practice poor reflection on the space industry in the face of State Orders. What is the national resource and personnel requirements verses that which is available and what is required to make this and other glaring short falls up for proper advancement to national goals? Recent failures in quality control are equally glaring example of industry short comings that must be addressed by the Russian Federation space and defense industries.
Allocations
The Russian Federal Space Agency was allocated a budget of 200 billion Rubles ($7.09 billion) for space program 2011-2015. This is the fourth largest space budget in the world. The Russian Federation space budget was $1.4 billion in 2007. Its 115 billion rubles ($3.5-$3.9 billion) 2011 budget is nearly three times it 2007 budget for the national space programs. A total of 9.6 billion Rubles ($327 million) had been allocated from 2006 through 2010 five year plan for the mars and planetary projects. Russia plans to launch three GLONASS spacecraft now targeted for August 2011 while it also plans to launch GLONASS-M spacecraft as well as the ISS Soyuz ferry ACRV missions but also an Express-AM4 COMSAT and a number of military satellites all adding up to 48 planned launches by the end of 2011.
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