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Iran’s Space Plans

Assistant Iranian Space Organization chief Mohammad Humayun said 30 May 2017 that the second ten-year plan for the space was ready for approval by the Supreme Council for Space Affairs in the country. Mohammad Humayun issued in a statement to Fars, the space program of the country approved by the Supreme Council for Space Affairs, which the organization is currently pursuing its implementation continues until 2021.

He added that Iran's space organization is primarily responsible for the implementation of the space program of the country until 2021. He noted what has been announced on the preparation of his second ten-year plan for the Space Organization of Iran, explaining that several drafts have been prepared on the next plan. He noted that the Supreme Council for Space Affairs if he wanted to ratify the next ten-year plan for the country, all related documents are ready.

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Science & Technology Budget Three Year Fiscal Planning Cycle

© C. P. Vick 2008 All Rights Reserved

March 25, - Nov. 19, 2008

Fiscal Planning Cycles

The defense minister further iterated that the plans were a part of the guide lines of the supreme leader Ali Khamene'i, policies and objectives of the ninth government, and the twenty year economic outlook planning. More details were revealed in this series of speeches and news discussions that the Iranian fiscal planning system is based on Three Year Plans fiscal cycles with a twenty year future Outlook Forecasting Plan fiscal planning cycle. Additionally it was stated that the Iranian government had allocated $500 million dollars equivalency to the space effort in 2005. There may also be featured a six or nine or twelve year Forecast plan fiscal planning cycle. This reminds us of the Soviet, Chinese and North Korean, Five Year Plan (FYP) fiscal planning cycles with its ten year forecast planning and fifteen year future outlook fiscal planning cycle. It would appear that the Iranian forecast plan and outlook plan fiscal planning cycles feeds the three year plans (TYP) development in a similar manned to that seen in the authoritarian Soviet, Chinese and North Korean regimes fiscal planning cycles make them immensely predictable.

Why This is Possible

According to James T. Westwood, in 1978, while employed as a senior special research analyst for one of the three-letter national intelligence agencies, he discovered and crystallized into application, a novel, original technique for interpreting and predicting all of the military and space programs of the former Soviet Union with consistent accuracy and reliability. There came from this numerous applications and non-surprises, e.g., that the ballistic missile programs, with their space rocket off-shoots (to coin a phrase), were arguably the most reliable and revealing among the thousands of armor, aircraft, ship, artillery, etc. military hardware and operations programs. In a recent interview with this author, Westwood says that to the extent that the military programs of the PRC as well as North Korea and Iran long may have replicated the former Soviet Union's national planning schema, the same methodology likely can successfully illuminate China's, Iran’s and North Korea’s future military and space programs. The present author was taught this methodology by Westwood in a Continuing Engineering Education short course at the George Washington University in the late 1980’s.

Conferring with James T. Westwood, senior consultant of Military Science and Defense Analytics, Unionville VA, he said that CIA failed again in a systemic and incredible manner ever to be able to reliably predict the strategic behavior of the former Soviet Union in terms of "reverse analysis," to wit, reading the tea leaves from the native, bureaucratic Soviet perspective --planning and projecting on the same basis and by same method as did the former USSR. This was, he said, the "great plan," the GOSPLAN. He hoped, this magnificent blunder is not now being repeated with respect to the Peoples' Republic of China, Iran and North Korea. Because the current, active PRC, North Korean and more recently Iranian national planning scheme is based on the former Soviet model and is running now in phase for over a half-century, Westwood emphasized, it should not be a problem to draw a matrix and populate it in detail from 1953 on in order to have, at long suffering last, a reliable analytic tool for interpreting and forecasting Chinese weapons, space, energy and a host of other, important, national programs and projects -- in planning now, and in the recent past, for pay-off in the future.

An example of this immense predictability is show as Defense minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar went on to describe in his speech on February 4, 2008 that Iran intends through three, three year cycles in years 1386-1388 [2008-2010] to develop the nations satellite launching capability with the first satellite launch. This is to be followed by the years 1388-1391 [2010-2013] introductions of the development of two telecommunication and research satellites, a telemetry station as well as a joint satellite program with Islamic countries called Besharat. That is to be further followed with the years 1392-1394 [2013-2015] effort for the development of two remote-sensing satellites for high resolution imagery capability and the development of the launch vehicle capability to place satellite in lower orbits or as high as 10,000 kilometers among our other Science and Technology aerospace related projects planned. (1) That is to launch five satellites on or before and through 2010-2015.

This nothing less than portended the introduction of an Iranian variant of the North Korean Taep’o-dong-2C/3 or a booster based on the rapidly advancing solid propellant booster program based on the Ashura strategic ballistic missile or both within the next three to nine years. The reasoning being that the very masses of the spacecraft envisioned will require these class space boosters masquerading ICBM developments. This is a very significant national security development long anticipated and is already evident from the space launch infrastructure in development south east of Semnan since the years 2000-2004 as seen in the “Google Earth” imagery and subsequent recent Iranian released news video available on “You Tube” (4, 5) cpv

More recently Iran revealed that it plans to send its first Astronaut into sp[ace with in ten years (2021) as a outlook plan that is tentively being formulated according to Reza Taghipour head of the Iranian Aerospace organization stated on Iranian State television. August 21, 2008.. That is with in the next six months to one year this proposal will be firmed with with exact dates of the requirements for the mission of three State three year plans down the road.

On October 14, 2008 the President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad indicated that Iran was on the verge of significant developments which the world was going to have to learn to live with. Among those expectations indicated are the deployment of a mobile 2,000 kilometer range solid propellant ballistic missile, the nuclear power plant start up in 2009, a satellite launch expected to be accomplished by the end of March 2009 before "April Fools" day, further experimental recycling provocative nuclear work and the confirmation of the operational deployment of the No-dong-B, 4,000 kilometer range ballistic missile are expected to manifest themselves. Others such as the introduction of a new larger satellite launch vehicle, ICBM are expected in 2010 for already announced payload according to the State plans. Iran is also in the process of introducing a twenty year "scientific and technological forecast outlook plan" to push it basic sciences and technology as was announced November 3, 2008.

We have to understand why these programs are being pursued by Iran . It has been the plan like in the West to apply from the total available government funding about 40% to basic scientific research to push the basic sciences and about 60% of the available funding to push the basic technologies, (research & development). This is done to drive the national economy and to provide for the citizenry’s well being. Above all, it is to provide for the national security of the nation by keeping the Iranians technologically competitive with the technologically advanced world leadership. Typically this so called budget funding for the command economy operated through the three year plans via the State controlled allocation of material resources and personnel which is broken down between strictly military programs and civil military duel purpose programs. So it would indeed appear that Iran is following its own variant of the Soviet, Chinese and North Koran planned fiscal economy cyclic process that makes all things immensely predictable.

However does this planning address the questions is this realistically possible for Iran to achieve such world equaling prominence in science and technology or are their dreams delusional to their present theocracy policies and leadership that is abhorrent to the world community? They are certainly suggesting that they want to become competitive in the world market in science and technology for obvious duel purpose reasoning to lead the mausoleum world community for the same reasons that other nations have sought to achieve similar goals.