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Space

Second “Safir-E Omid”

(Emissary of Hope)

Booster Orbital Launch Attempt

© By Charles P. Vick (All Rights Reserved)

08-19-28/12-03--2008

Finally the Satellite Launch Attempt Safir-III

Iran was in fact giving every indication on August 17-18 th that with in a week or so of the launch failure it would launch the planned Omid (Hope) satellite on the third Safir launch vehicle. This presents the possibility Iran parallel processed two Safir launch vehicles for this launch campaign. Close study of the already launched vehicle on the pad verses the one seen in the hanger MIK horizontal assembly building suggests that the vehicle in the hangar was the back up Safir-III satellite launch vehicle to be flown soon. This expected launch attempt was reconfirmed on August 23, 2008 by the President of Iran “ Iran has announced that the country is set to send its first remote sensing telecommunication satellite into space in the near future.” (13, 14) There is also video imagery from the Safir-II launch of what appears to be a second launch facility one valley over with a larger gantry already built for a newer larger launch vehicle possibly for the Taep’o-dong-2 class satellite launch vehicle design perhaps designed to use the Safir launch vehicle as its second and third stage expected by 2010.

This was then followed on September 24 by the Iranian president stating before an audience of USA Iranian residents as FARS reported from the Redorbit translation "Today - thanks to the sanctions by bullying powers - the Iranian nation has become nuclear. It has uranium enrichment in its grasp and developed the technology to launch satellites into the earth's orbit. It has also developed two-stage and three-stage rockets and can launch them one after the other. Soon we will launch a rocket with 16 engines with the ability to put a satellite at an altitude of 690-700 km high in to space. "

The 16 engines is incorrectly translated and actually refers to "Nozzles" not engines. The Sahir booster is three stages with the first stage utilizing one nain nozzle while its second stage uses two main nozzles with sic attitude control translation stage separation nozzles for attitude control and its third stage apparently uses a single nozzle solid motor with six active attitude control thrusters nozzles for attitude control and stage separation translation for roll pitch and yaw control. These continuing description and predictions are following the previous predicted satellite orbiting plan for the period of October 2008 through march 2009 State planning schedule requirements.

Safir Program Set Back Indirectly Acknowledged by Iran

After the November 26, 2008 successful 40 minute sounding rocket vertical probe ballistic flight into space by the Kavoshgar-2 (Explorer-2) Iran acknowledged that the Safir program had suffered a set back by saying it required two more flight test with out admitting it has failed so far. That set back is believed to have been determined back in October after reviewing the previous flight tests results. Kavoshgar-2 was launched by a two stage solid propellant tactical missile with a third scientific recoverable apparatus section attached to a recovery parachute. The launch displayed the characteristic white gray solid propellant exhaust contrail versus the black hydrocarbon contrail seen with Shahab-2B launches. The scientific section utilized a space laboratory and data monitoring and processing unit as a part of its instrumentation. (17)

The tactical missiles used a TEL normally set to 45 degrees launch angle rolled up on to a bull dozed hill to make it nearly vertical for launching. Kavoshgar-2 was not launched on the Shahab-3B as previously indicating. It was given a standard name “Kavoshgar” for a series of vertical probe sounding rocket experiments that Iran is known to have utilized for some time now for atmospheric and space ballistic environmental testing in support of its ballistics and space programs. (17) The Kavoshgar-3 & 4 launches expected in the near future are expected to carry live animal test subjects to begin developing the knowledge base for future human space programs by Iran. (18)

Iran indicated that the Safir (Messenger or Ambassador or Emissary or Envoy) satellite launch vehicle must apparently undergo two additional successful flight tests in a row in order to finally be cleared to launch Iran's first satellite “Omid” (Hope) on its fifth or sixth launch as presently planned. Iran is therefore not expected to achieve it planned satellite launch by the end of the present three year plan at the end of March 2009. Its next three year plan starts on April 1, 2009 “April Fools” day the planning of which is expected to be impacted by this set back on at least one or two other separate larger more advanced space booster programs being developed. Safir is a test bed for the required technology for the follow-on launch vehicles. How much of an impact this will have on the longer term satellite launch vehicle development and Safir programs remains to be seen.

Conclusions

Its not if Iran failed in the test launch attempt but how it failed & what it revealed about their booster development progress. In any case the Safir launch vehicle is only expected to launch a few satellites as it merely represents an interim test pathfinder launch vehicle for the larger higher performance vehicles to follow which is expected to resemble the North Korean Taep’o-dong-2 class satellite launch vehicle design. This would follow the North Korean practice as was carried out with the Taep’o-dong-1 booster that soon after one satellite launch was essentially shelved with only limited numbers produced and it was never deployed strategically. Like Diplomacy is the art of perception management projected convincingly, the high game of disguise is projected as a myth of lies. Likewise, the Iranians attempts at broadcasting a positive image in regards to this space launch test is to draw attention from the real target events that involve both time and place deception. Image is the game of not truths and there in lies deception as a diversion from reality. To draw attention from the real targets events time place deception. So what is the real purpose of the Iranian space booster spacecraft programs that’s staring us in the face? At this early stage it already appears as if Iran wants to become the dominant space power in the Middle East – as witnessed by its subsequent satellite space launch offer, above. Secondly, those Iranian vehicles developed beyond the Taep’o-dong-1 based Safir, such as the expected Iranian Taep’o-dong-2 based vehicles, will not only place heavier payloads into orbit, but in all likelihood also serve as long-range nuclear armed ballistic missiles (up to intercontinental range), which would enable Iran to deter U.S. – backed forces from interfering with its next suspected objective; - namely to exercise political, economic and military hegemony over its Arab neighbors.

CPV 08-28-08



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Page last modified: 21-07-2011 00:51:49 ZULU