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Malligyong-1-4

On 27 May 2024 the North Korean Cheonlima-1 rocket appeared to have exploded just after launch. N. Korea's launch of what it claims to be military spy satellite ended up multiple pieces of debris. The North's state-run media quickly owned up to the failure, saying, "During the launch of a military reconnaissance satellite, an accident occurred in which the first stage of a new rocket exploded in the air during flight". Korean Central News Agency said the Malligyong 1-1 reconnaissance satellite was launched on Monday on a new-type of satellite carrier rocket, but exploded mid-air during its first-stage flight. The KCNA added the cause of the accident presumably lies in the newly developed liquid oxygen and petroleum engine, and the National Aerospace Technology Administration will investigate it further.

This was North Korea's fourth attempt to launch a military reconnaissance satellite, following its previous launch last November. The North's first bid to launch a satellite in May last year failed due to second-stage engine trouble. The second attempt last August also ended in failure, due to a malfunction in the third stage.

Signs that North Korea is preparing to launch its second reconnaissance satellite was detected by the South Korean military. On 24 May 2024, the military said that activity was observed at one of North Korea's main launch sites in Tongchang-ri, on the west coast. It added that South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities are closely monitoring the situation and are preparing to track and intercept the satellite if it is launched. There is speculation that the regime may launch its spy satellite during the South Korea-Japan-China summit, set to be held next Monday, to maximize its political impact.

Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff(JCS) spotted a projectile launch at around 10:44 p.m. Monday from the Tongchang-ri area in the North, where the Sohae Satellite Launching Station is located. In an apparent sign of midair explosion, the projectile was detected as multiple fragments in North Korean waters two minutes after it was fired toward the southern part of Yellow Sea. The South Korean JCS also released video footage of the midair blast, captured by surveillance equipment aboard a naval vessel. The image was videotaped by a South Korean patrol ship near the northwest islands. It shows the projectile becoming engulfed in flames half a minute after it was caught on camera.

Footage taken by an NHK camera on the Chinese side of the border with the North showed a shining dot rising into the sky from near the Sohae station on Monday night. It was later seen bursting into orange flames. About an hour and a half after the attempted liftoff, the North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) announced the failure, explaining that the rocket blew up during the first-stage flight. KCNA cited a space agency official as saying that a preliminary examination showed that the explosion could be attributed to the reliability of the newly developed liquid oxygen-petroleum engine. The North is suspected to have acquired technical assistance from Russia for the latest launch although collaboration cannot be verified due to the failure of the launch.

The new engine, which used liquid oxygen as an oxidizer and kerosene as fuel, had a problem and exploded in the air during first stage flight. The Joint Chiefs of Staff also estimated that the cause of this failure was a problem with the launch vehicle engine combustion system. A new engine was used instead of the 'Baekdu engine' of the first reconnaissance satellite launch vehicle, which was successful after three launches last year, but problems arose from the most basic first stage flight.

This engine, which uses liquid oxygen and kerosene, can generate high thrust and is mainly used in space launch vehicles for scientific purposes. Our Nuri, Naro, and U.S. SpaceX Falcon launch vehicles are of the same series. Therefore, some analysts say that there is an intention to promote the launch as a scientific purpose rather than ICBM technology development. In particular, Russia is world-leading in this engine technology, making it easy to receive technical support. However, although it is a technology that requires sufficient time for stabilization, it appears that the launch date was unreasonably advanced to accommodate the schedule of the Korea-Japan-China summit.

The South Korean presidential office's National Security Advisor Chang Ho-jin convened a security meeting less than an hour after lift-off. Participants at the meeting were briefed on the situation by JCS Chairman Kim Myung-soo and discussed response measures to the North's violation of UN Security Council resolutions, which prohibit the regime from using ballistic missile technology. The participants condemned Pyongyang's satellite launch as a violation of UNSC resolutions and a threat to the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia and the international community regardless of its outcome.

The External Affairs Service (EEAS), the European Union's (EU) foreign ministry, strongly condemned North Korea in a statement issued by a spokesperson today (28th) local time, saying that it launched a reconnaissance satellite yesterday using ballistic missile technology. “North Korea’s disregard for its international obligations continues to threaten regional and international peace and security,” the spokesperson said, urging the country to “cease all actions that escalate tensions.”

Earlier on Monday, Pyongyang informed Japanese authorities of its plan to fire a rocket carrying a satellite at some point between Monday and next Tuesday. The regime then quickly pushed ahead with the plan, just hours after President Yoon Suk Yeol, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Chinese Premier Li Qiang held a summit in Seoul and kick-started the stalled three-way dialogue for the first time in almost four and a half years.

Fumio Kishida (Japanese Prime Minister): "If North Korea goes ahead with the launch, it will be a breach of UNSC resolutions. I strongly urge the plan be suspended." Meanwhile, Chinese Premier Li Qiang repeated the stance of pursuing a political resolution to Korean Peninsula issues.

When North Korea launched the military reconnaissance satellite, it was after the Korea-Japan-China summit ended and Chinese Premier Li Qiang left Seoul. Chinese Prime Minister Li Chang has shown a stance of supporting North Korea on the issue of North Korea's denuclearization, unlike South Korea, Japan, and the international community. Analysis suggests that North Korea also decided on the launch time taking China into consideration.

Analysis suggests that the intention was to avoid provoking China by carrying out a surprise provocation during Prime Minister Li Chang's visit to Korea, while keeping in check the atmosphere of cooperation among the three countries, especially Korea-China relations. Jeong Seong-jang/Director of the Korean Peninsula Strategy Center, Sejong Institute: "The possibility of a dispute or conflict occurring between Korea and China is increasing. It can be said that the satellite launch was announced on the day of the summit in order to cause conflict."

In fact, during this meeting period, although it was assessed that the foundation for restoration of cooperation between countries had been laid, differences in positions were revealed regarding North Korea's satellite launch. Unlike the leaders of Korea and Japan, who condemned it as a violation of Security Council resolutions, Prime Minister Li Chang avoided criticizing North Korea. Regarding North Korea's recent satellite launch, China only reiterated its fundamental position that efforts are needed from all parties. Maoning/Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson: "(China) believes that a political solution to the Korean Peninsula issue is in the common interests of each side. China's basic position on the Korean Peninsula issue has not changed."

However, China is close to North Korea, China and Russia . As they are wary of the structure being overemphasized, some predict that they will focus on maintaining friendly relations with South Korea and Japan while keeping an appropriate distance from North Korea for the time being. But some experts say the fact that the three countries gathered in Seoul to discuss North Korea at this particular time and issued a message urging peace will itself act as considerable pressure on Pyongyang. In the summit, the three sides also raised respective voices on key issues of denuclearization, abductees and regional peace and stability. Pundits believe the three sides focused on restoring and normalizing trilateral relations while seeking mutual understanding regarding more sensitive matters.

Pundits say the North apparently fired the satellite hurriedly in time for the Seoul-Tokyo-Beijing trilateral summit in Seoul without verifying the reliability of the new engine completely. Although Russian experts are believed to be involved in the latest launch, proving it would be difficult because the launch has failed. Meanwhile, the North said nothing about when the next launch is scheduled for.

North Korea will likely aim to determine the cause of the latest failure and launch another satellite. But Monday's failure could affect the country's plans to launch three more satellites this year, especially if it takes time to rectify the problems.