The Associated Press April 8, 2009
NKorean rocket raises proliferation concerns
By Kwang Tae-Kim
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea could still attract buyers for its shorter-range missiles despite problems with its latest rocket launch and will likely continue to cooperate with Iran in developing longer range ones, security experts said Wednesday.
Pyongyang's missile program has caused fears of global ballistic proliferation, adding to concerns about its pursuit of nuclear weapons. The communist country is believed to have up to eight nuclear warheads, though analysts say it probably has been unable so far to make them small enough to fit on a missile.
"The problem is long-range missiles in the hands of regimes that aren't constrained by international norms — countries like Iran and North Korea," said James Lewis, an expert on defense technology at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
"Their calculations on the risk of a hostile action are different from other countries, and they are willing to consider things that most other countries would not choose to do. The risk is: irrational regimes with long-range missiles — not a good combination."
Sunday's launch was worrying on many levels even though the rocket partly fizzled, apparently due to difficulties in getting the second stage to separate from the third, sending whatever payload was aboard to the bottom of the Pacific Ocean.
North Korea denies that, claiming it put a satellite into orbit. Critics counter it doesn't matter what was on board because the same technology applies to long-range ballistic missiles.
The North already has reliable shorter-range missiles capable of hitting South Korea and Japan, and the new rocket traveled twice as far as anything the North had launched before.
But the real concerns are not so much what the North is capable of today.
It's what a nuclear-armed country that is desperately short of cash could pull off in the future — including improvements that could allow it to reach U.S. territory — and its clear willingness to sell to whoever can afford to pay.
"Money talks," said Choi Choon-heum, a researcher at Korea Institute for National Unification. "North Korea really wants to have some cash, especially to export missiles to Iran."
Cha Du-hyeogn, a researcher at the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said North Korea has a network of proliferation with Iran and Pakistan, noting that the North's technology is suspected to have been used to develop Pakistan's Gauri missile.
Cha said that the North's latest failure won't likely affect missile sales abroad as most of its customers in the Middle East favor intermediate missiles.
North Korea's relations with Iran date to the 1980s when Pyongyang sold Scud missiles to Tehran during its war with Iraq. They have since forged cooperative relations on missile development, sharing data on experiments and launches, said Yun Duk-min of South Korea's state-run Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security.
"Iran would not have a missile program if it were not for North Korea," Lewis said.
In 2003, the U.S. State Department imposed penalties on one North Korean and five Chinese companies for allegedly selling weapons technology to Iran. The companies denied the allegation.
"North Korea has received technology data and patent documents from Iran in return for experiments in Iran," said Kim Heung-kwang, a North Korean professor who was involved in the North's missile program for nearly two decades before defecting to the South in 2004.
Kim also said North Korea shipped missiles to Iran until early 2000 as part of state-run programs to earn hard currency. The two countries were branded part of an "axis of evil" — along with pre-war Iraq — by former President George W. Bush.
"I don't think the failure of the satellite to reach orbit will affect sales," Lewis said. "As a missile launch, the test was a success."
North Korea already has fielded a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, according to South Korea's Defense Ministry. With a range of 1,800 miles (3,000 kilometers), it could reach Guam, northern Australia, most of Russia and parts of India.
Iran, which successfully launched a satellite early this year, has defended North Korea's rocket launch while denying collaboration with Pyongyang.
In a sign of close ties with North Korea, a 15-member Iranian delegation watched the launch in person Sunday, said an intelligence expert with a track record of accurate information. He spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
Iran claims its missile program is indigenous, but its Shahab-3 missile — capable of reaching Israel — is allegedly based on North Korea's Rodong surface-to-surface missile.
Tehran is clearly learning fast.
"The Iranians look to be a little further ahead" of North Korea right now, said Tim Brown, a senior fellow at the security analyst group Globalsecurity.org.
Iran joined the space club in October 2005 when it launched its first small satellite aboard a Russian rocket. That orbiter was Russian-made, but Iran built its second satellite with help from Italian company Carlo Gavazzi Space.
Iran sent its first domestically built communication satellite into orbit Feb. 2, using an Iranian rocket, a key step for an ambitious — and worrying — space program. The government has allocated $500 million for space projects for 2005-2010.
Iranian space agency officials have not given details on what additional technology or expertise they need from abroad, but they have been racing to learn as much as they can. Under its 20-year plan, Iran aims to become a technological powerhouse of western Asia and a regional superpower by 2025.
Aerospace faculties have mushroomed at Iranian universities in recent years, and Iranian technicians are being trained in Italy, Russia and China on how to design and build satellites.
Iranian officials point to America's use of space to monitor Afghanistan and Iraq before invading them and say they need similar abilities for security.
Russia, which has helped the Iranians with their nuclear program, appears to be a key partner in transferring space technology to Iran. In January, Iran signed a $132 million deal with a Russian company to build and launch a telecommunications satellite within the next two years.
Iran has also signed agreements to launch a joint satellite with China and Thailand.
Iran had virtually no arms industry and bought virtually all of its weapons from Washington before the 1979 Islamic revolution. It began an arms development program during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war to compensate for weapons shortages caused by a U.S. embargo. Since 1992, Iran has unveiled its own tanks, armored personnel carriers, missiles and a fighter plane.
Associated Press writer Ali Akbar Dareini contributed to this report from Tehran, Iran.
© Copyright 2009, The Associated Press
