Investor's Business Daily November 25, 2008
Russia's Challenge On The High Seas
Security: As Russian warships steam into Venezuelan waters, the show is dismissed by some as rust-bucket bravado. But for all its navy's flaws, Russia's maneuvers herald challenges to the U.S. — and not just in Venezuela.
Russian warships from its Northern Fleet reached the Venezuelan port of La Guaira in a first 15,000-mile global journey in decades. Led by the missile cruiser Peter the Great, and conducting live-fire exercises, it's the first Russian demonstration of force in waters adjacent to our own shores in 20 years.
The White House downplayed it, and the State Department said they don't view the maneuver as aggressive. Officials even laughingly wondered earlier if the Russian rustbuckets would be accompanied by tugboats. But State Department spokesman Sean McCormack noted Tuesday that the U.S. will be watching closely.
That's good, because there are signs Russia intends to become more than a rust-bucket navy on the water. It's not only beefing up its navy, it's got a very broad plan to challenge U.S. naval dominance and control critical sea lanes through alliances with Venezuela and others.
Fueled by the bounty from high oil prices, Russia's defense budget has increased fourfold in the last seven years. It's expected to go up 20% to $40 billion in 2008, according to GlobalSecurity.org, a private forecaster. It spends about 8% of its budget on the military, or about 2.7% of GDP, less than the 13% it spent in final Soviet days.
Although Russia has been hard hit by the financial crisis along with investment outflows in the aftermath of its Georgia invasion, it still can divert resources if not raise spending for the military.
What's more, there seems to be will to do this. Russian officials continuously state that they intend to raise their navy's global profile and restore lost glory. In May, Novosti reported that Russia will build up its naval presence across the world in 2008.
"There will be tours of duty this year, involving surface ships, submarines and aircraft," fleet commander Vice-Admiral Nikolai Maksimov said.
That's already happening in areas that coincide with critical chokepoints and sea lanes.
Russia's appearance in Venezuela's Caribbean is a leading example. About 64% of U.S. oil imports traverse four sea lanes there on the way to the Gulf Coast. More must cross the Panama Canal. Venezuela's proximity is where the U.S. is vulnerable.
Russia has global ambitions, of which Venezuela is just one part. It's bolstered its foothold at the strategically perched Tartus base in Syria, and is moving to secure a naval base in Yemen, a former Soviet beachhead, across from the pirate-infested Gulf of Aden, gateway to the Suez Canal, where 7% of global oil trade passes.
Two Russian warships sailed into Aden on the same day the Russian ships entered Venezuela, in what they said were routine naval maneuvers. But about a week ago, Russia said it would divert ships from its Baltic fleet to the Gulf of Aden to defend ships against Somali pirates. Working outside NATO and the CTF-150 group, Russia says it's in response to an invitation from Yemen. A base there, at the gate to the Suez Canal, lets Russia occupy another chokepoint.
Alliances like these are deepening. Russia has few real commercial interests south of the Suez. Venezuela may change that. Russia's oligarchs are interested in Venezuela's mineral and oil wealth, and have signed several joint ventures with the government.
Russia has also signed deals to sell some $4 billion in arms to Venezuela, and has extended it a billion-dollar credit line this year. Along with its cozier Russian ties to Cuba, Russia's burgeoning Venezuelan relationship lets it express its anger at the U.S. over America's growing trade and security ties to Georgia and Ukraine.
For both Yemen and Venezuela, Russia's alliance brings military might that helps strengthen their increasingly unpopular leaders. Yemen is seeing unrest over its leaders' extravagant spending, particularly $1 billion on arms from Russia, while its population remains the poorest in the Arab world.
Meanwhile, Hugo Chavez lost five governorships in last weekend's elections, signaling a turning tide for him too.
Russian military presence may help entrench both.
Falling oil revenues may well someday scupper Russia's ambitions, but haven't stopped it from making its presence felt now.
After visiting Venezuela, Russia's flotilla will move on to the Indian Ocean basin for maneuvers, reportedly near the U.S. naval support station on Diego Garcia island.
Rustbucket or not, Russia seems to want to prove something by beefing up its navy. It may mean Russia will continue to look for trouble until it actually finds it.
© Copyright 2008, Investor's Business Daily, Inc.
