The Evening Bulletin September 19, 2008
Russian Fleet A Shell Of Former Self
By John Rossomando
Russia may be trying to flex its muscles by staging naval maneuvers in the Caribbean in November and by threatening to sink the NATO task force that entered the Black Sea last month, but analysts said its navy, and military in general, is a shell of its former self.
Former Russian Black Sea Fleet commander, Adm. Eduard Baltin boasted in the Russian press last month, "Despite the apparent strength of the NATO naval group in the Black Sea ... a single salvo from the Moskva missile cruiser and two or three missile boats would be enough to annihilate the entire group. Within 20 minutes, the waters would be clear."
But American naval analysts said the Russian admiral's boasts were empty. On paper, the Russian Navy demonstrates a potent array of firepower, but reality, they said, is another matter.
During the Soviet era, at the height of its naval power in the 1970s, approximately 70 percent of the Soviet Union's naval assets could be mobilized at a given time. But current estimates indicate Russia can now mobilize only 10 percent, due to a shortage of experienced personnel, and a lack of properly maintained equipment.
Even so, Russia's military leaders have been showing off what naval power they do have, in an attempt to demonstrate they are back in full power, some analysts have said.
A recent example is Russia's plans to send its nuclear-powered battle cruiser Pyotr Velikiy and other ships to naval war games in the Caribbean with Venezuela.
"The Pyotr Velikiy is a good-looking ship and pretty to see underway, but it is far from a display of real military power," said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org.
The ship, and its Kirov-class sisters, are the world's largest warships other than aircraft carriers built since World War II. It carries 20 supersonic SS-N-19 "Shipwreck" anti-ship cruise missiles, theoretically capable of sinking an American aircraft carrier.
But U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, D-7th, of Delaware, Montgomery and Chester counties, who served as a three-star admiral prior to being elected to Congress said he is not overly concerned.
"The dock and submarine support is very poor, and their refits have fallen behind schedule to the point its SSN [attack submarine] force that had 100 submarines during the Soviet era is down to about 50," he said "The Russian Navy rarely went on long excursions until recently."
Russia's military budget has declined from $277 billion in 1985 during the Soviet era, to just $40 billion this year, leaving its post-Cold War navy's fleet rusting in port most of the time.
Comparatively, the United States spent $127.8 billion last year on its Navy/Marine Corps budget alone, not counting the other service branches.
"It's a navy that doesn't go to sea very much," Mr. Pike said. "Most of the sailors are conscripts, and they don't learn very much in two years, and if something breaks, the officers have to fix it. A navy that doesn't go to sea is not a good navy."
Warships such as the Moskva and Pyotr Velikiy are Cold War relics that Mr. Pike said "were designed by Brezhnev and built by Gorbachev." The average Russian warship is between 20 and 30 years old and still operates with the same equipment they used during the same period. In contrast, many American warships built during the same period have been retired from service.
Russia is believed to only be able to successfully project its power against its immediate neighbors. Its command and control capabilities - essential for victory in any engagement - are vastly inferior to those of the United States and NATO, which would put it at a distinct disadvantage were it to find itself in a fight with the U.S. Navy.
The antiship cruise missiles carried by the Russian Navy such as the SS-N-19 "Shipwreck," SS-N-22 "Sunburn" or SS-N-26 "Yakhont" seem formidable on paper, being supersonic, rather than subsonic like their Western counterparts, and carrying significantly larger warheads.
However, the technically advanced U.S. Navy's ability to interconnect its ships' weapons systems in a carrier battle group virtually neutralize the Russian missiles' speed and conventional warheads, although they are also nuclear capable.
Assuming conventional warfare, Mr. Sestak, who commanded a carrier battle group, said Russian missiles might overwhelm a single warship, but a fleet of American warships equipped with the AEGIS radar can effectively neutralize a threat as if they were a single ship.
For example, one ship can shut off its radar and shoot down an anti-ship missile using the radar of another ship, and the entire fleet can coordinate its weapons using the same system. Gone are the days when each ship in the U.S. Navy operated as an individual unit.
Mr. Pike said the Russian army, similarly, is only capable of overwhelming neighbors such as Georgia, Estonia or Ukraine, but the bulk of its fighting force are also conscripts he describes as the "dregs of Russian society."
The American defeat of Iraq's Soviet-style army in both Gulf Wars, Mr. Pike said, showed the inferiority of Russian military tactics, because Russia uses the same ones that were used by Iraq.
"They can put on a decent parade in Red Square and beat up Georgia, but that's about it," he said.
According to both Mr. Sestak and Mr. Pike, the United States has far more to worry about Russian military hardware finding its way into the hands of its enemies than from Russia itself.
© Copyright 2008, The Evening Bulletin
