Star-Telegram August 08, 2007
This jet may fly for days. (It won't have a pilot.)
Role of unmanned military aircraft is rapidly expanding
By Bob Cox
When unmanned Predator aircraft began firing missiles at terrorists in Afghanistan in late 2001, it marked the dawn of a new era in military aviation.
Aerospace analysts say that within the next decade or so, unmanned, remotely piloted aircraft will become increasingly versatile and valuable tools for many military missions.
The Navy's issuance of a $636 million contract to Northrop Grumman last week to demonstrate the feasibility of unmanned combat aircraft for aircraft carriers is another step toward taking pilots out of the cockpit and putting them into a control room.
Nobody predicts that fighter pilots will be disappearing anytime soon. But experts say the extraordinarily rapid advances in navigation systems and other technology will enable unmanned aircraft to work alongside, or in some cases in place of, traditional manned combat aircraft.
"The thing with unmanned aircraft is they enable you to do things you couldn't otherwise do," said Tom Hamilton, a physicist and senior physical scientist with the Rand Institute think tank who has studied the potential of unmanned aircraft for the Air Force.
The widespread use of the Predators in Afghanistan and the Middle East has demonstrated the ability of unmanned aircraft to fly long distances, loiter over a particular area for hours and quickly deliver a targeted strike.
The U.S. and other militaries have seized upon the ability of unmanned aircraft to provide reconnaissance and surveillance.
Making the leap to unmanned combat aircraft is another matter. But in an era when U.S. forces must operate from bases or ships far from targets, the endurance limits of the planes and pilots make unmanned aircraft an attractive alternative.
When the U.S. first attacked the Taliban in late 2001, most of the bombing raids were carried out by carrier- and land-based aircraft operating from bases or ships hundreds of miles away. Single-pilot aircraft were in the air 10 or more hours at a time. Multiple refuelings were required. B-2 bombers operating from the continental U.S. faced 40-hour round trips.
Such long-distance missions stretch pilots to the limit, but even today most of the Pentagon's aircraft development is directed at short-range weapons like the F-35 joint strike fighter.
Tom Ehrhard, a military strategy analyst with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment in Washington, says the Defense Department and the armed services have to put more effort into systems that can fly farther and stay longer, and that means unmanned aircraft.
The Navy's demonstration program, mandated by the Pentagon and Congress, "is a little program with big ramifications," Ehrhard said.
Northrop Grumman, working with Lockheed Martin, has already done much of the work on an X-47B combat aircraft that may be able to fly twice as far as the carrier-based version of the F-35, carry an equivalent bomb load, and, with aerial refueling, remain on patrol for days, not hours.
An unmanned aircraft like the X-47B could greatly extend the capability of a Navy carrier group to project power and amplify -- not just complement -- the capabilities of the manned aircraft.
Most analysts say technology, even the capability to land aboard an aircraft carrier, isn't the limiting issue.
"There's operational issues, but there's no major technological issues," Hamilton said.
The Navy, in particular, is going to be a hard sell, said Steven Zaloga, a weapons analyst with the Teal Group. Navy leaders will have to be shown that unmanned-aircraft technology is "leading edge, not bleeding edge." To date, Zaloga said, unmanned aircraft have had higher accident rates.
"I don't think anybody in the Navy," he said, "thinks [the X-47B] is going to lead to a guaranteed procurement program."
But the Air Force is pro- bably working on technolo- gy for one or more classified unmanned aircraft programs, Zaloga says, perhaps a tac- tical aircraft and then a longer-range, deep-strike bomber.
Northrop is a partner with Fort-Worth based Lockheed Martin Aeronautics on development of the F-35. Lockheed's Skunk Works in Palmdale, Calif., is also working with Northrop on the X-47B.
Lockheed views unmanned aircraft like the X-47B as complementary to the F-35, Lockheed spokeswoman Melissa Dalton said. Lockheed is also developing several smaller unmanned aircraft systems of its own.
COMPARING CAPABILITIES
X-47B, top F-35C, above Unmanned Manned Altitude 40,000+ feet 40,000+ feet Combat radius 1,500+ naut. mi. 600-650 naut. mi. Payload 4,500 lbs. internal 4,500 lbs. internal Cruise speed High subsonic High subsonic
Sources: Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, GlobalSecurity.org
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