Newsday October 10, 2006
Looking for a way to retaliate
Bush seeks rapid global response to N. Korea's nuclear test claims, wants UN council involved, but hints forceful U.S. action might follow
By Craig Gordon
WASHINGTON -- President George W. Bush called for a swift global response to North Korea's purported nuclear test yesterday, but Bush's options are limited at best and unthinkable at worst, analysts said.
At the same time, senior U.S. government officials cast doubt on North Korea's claims of barging across the nuclear threshold, saying the device was relatively small and may not have been nuclear at all.
Still, the United Nations Security Council began weighing tough new sanctions designed to punish the already impoverished Communist nation. The United States is pushing for a new trade ban on military and luxury items, stringent cargo inspections and new steps to curb its drug and counterfeit money trade, as a way to squeeze North Korea's top leaders.
"Once again, North Korea has defied the will of the international community, and the international community will respond," Bush said yesterday.
Bush's representative at the United Nations, John Bolton, said even usually reluctant nations such as Russia and China were calling for tough steps against the North Korean regime, after being angered and surprised by the test.
Bush signaled there would be no immediate military action in response to the North Korean test, saying this was a time for an "immediate response by the United Nations Security Council" - a clear nod to diplomacy.
However, Bush also hinted that might change if North Korea sold nuclear materials or technology to other nations or terror groups such as al-Qaida. He called such a move "a grave threat to the United States," and said, "We would hold North Korea fully accountable."
North Korea claimed that it had conducted a successful nuclear test on Sunday at 9:36 p.m. New York time. U.S. intelligence has long suspected that North Korea had the capability to produce nuclear bombs, but it was North Korea's first test.
U.S. officials almost immediately began to question North Korea's claim - noting that earthquake monitors detected a blast from a device with the equivalent of several hundred tons of dynamite, less than the standard kiloton-size blasts of standard nuclear weapons.
"We can't confirm that it was a nuclear test," said one U.S. government official.
The United States believes that "more likely than not it was a nuclear test, albeit not a very successful one," the official said, adding that the test results suggested the bomb was either very small, a larger bomb that only partially detonated or not nuclear at all.
Either way, several experts in non-proliferation said the options available to Bush to respond are greatly limited - particularly in the case of a possible military response. That's because of fears that an attack on North Korea would prompt retaliation against U.S. allies such as Japan and South Korea - raising risks of war across the Korean Peninsula, or even the broader region.
"It seems to me our level of risk-aversion is such that we don't want to go there," said John Pike, an expert in military capabilities at GlobalSecurity.org, a Web site specializing in defense issues. "The reason that North Korea has developed that deterrent posture is so nobody would want to mess with them."
North Korea is widely believed to have produced at least a few nuclear devices, though its ability to turn them into warheads or deliver them remains unclear - but enough of a risk to avoid wanting to find out, Pike said.
In addition, the U.S. military is stretched thin in Iraq and Afghanistan, making it more difficult to take on a third military conflict at this time, experts said.
Surgical U.S. air strikes in North Korea might take out some nuclear infrastructure - but the United States doesn't know where all of the nuclear facilities are, experts said.
Even a conventional retaliation by North Korea could be disastrous for the region, with a million-man army and thousands of artillery pieces pointed at South Korea, many at the capital Seoul. And on the sanctions front, it wasn't clear yesterday that China and Russia would go along with tough new measures, including international inspections of all cargo to and from North Korea.
That's because Bush would have to get China to do something it has been unwilling to do up until now - take a hard line with North Korea, one of its major customers in the region.
But "we don't have a whole lot of leverage with China," said Derek Mitchell, an Asian affairs expert in the Pentagon under former President Bill Clinton.
Still, others say North Korea is susceptible to other forms of international pressure by the United States - like having its communication lines and shipping cut off - that wouldn't necessarily invite full-scale retaliation.
"North Korea's neighbors are running out of patience with the Pyongyang government, and that makes it easier for the U.S. to take action or form an alliance with them for dealing with North Korea," said Loren Thompson, a military analyst at the Lexington Institute.
A CRISIS UNFOLDS
WHAT HAPPENED?
North Korea announced yesterday that it had conducted an underground nuclear test. A few hours later, the U.S. Geological Survey said there had been a "seismic event" about 240 miles north of Pyongyang, the North Korean capital.
WHY IS IT SIGNIFICANT?
The North Koreans could use the bomb as a deterrent to U.S. military action against them, and could threaten to respond to an American attack by striking Japan, South Korea or another nearby U.S. ally. That prospect could lead to an arms race in Asia. In addition, there's the possibility that North Korea would give or sell its nuclear technology and materials to some of the world's other rogue nations.
WHAT'S NEXT?
President George W. Bush called the test "a threat to international peace and security," and the United Nations Security Council weighed severe sanctions, including prohibiting all trade in military and luxury goods, an air and sea blockade of all North Korean aircraft and ships and imposing travel restrictions on high-ranking North Korean officials. There has been no talk of military action.
Nuclear nations
A look at which countries have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
and estimates of how many deployed warheads each has.
Russia Signed treaty 5,682
United States Signed treaty 5,521
France Signed treaty 348
Britain Signed treaty 185
China Signed treaty 130
Israel 100-200
Pakistan 60
India 50
N. Korea Withdrew from treaty Unknown
SOURCE: SIPRI 2006 YEARBOOK
How big a bomb?
North Korea test *Less than 1,000 tons of TNT
U.S. Minuteman III ballistic missile 335,000 tons
Atom bomb on Hiroshima 13,000 tons
Russian 22-25 ballistic missile 750,000 tons
*Estimate by South Korean spy agency
SOURCE: Center for Defense Information
Anatomy of a nuclear test
There are few details about North Korea's test explosion in the United States, all tests are conducted underground for safety reasons. The process:
Pea gravel, sand, gypsum, cold tar or epoxy (1) are used to cover the hole to contain radioactive fallout. The nuclear device (2) is detonated. The blast vaporizes surrounding rock and creates a spherical void (3) that causes the earth to cave in leaving a crater at the surface (4). As gases cool, a lining of radioactive glass forms at the bottom (5).
SOURCE: GLOBALSECURITY.ORG
'Scary' . . . 'Unnerving': Long Islanders reacted yesterday to news that North Korea detonated a nuclear device
"It's very scary. It's very frightening and unsettling. What's wrong with those people? ... I don't think Bush is going to be much help."
- Jo Ann Kelly, 42, Bethpage, postal worker
"Scary. It sounds like they're going to try sanctions, but it depends on what China is going to do about it. It sounds like it might be military - I hope not."
- Chris Williamson, 35, Merrick, real estate broker
"I'm not happy about it. It's an unnerving situation. Apparently, they [North Korean leaders] have their own agenda. They're acting tough. They don't care what anybody thinks."
- Bob Schumacher, 51, Old Bethpage, self-employed
"[North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il is] not going to sit back and tolerate any other country restraining his nuclear program. He's going to do what he wants to do."
- Randy Jackson, 41, Bay Shore, music industry account manager
"I don't feel we can get involved in this stuff now. We got enough problems in Iraq."
- Paula Raehse, 48, Massapequa Park, teacher
Compiled by Carl MacGowan
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