Chicago Tribune January 21, 2003
Turkey thrust into vital gulf role; Nation leery of regionwide backlash
By Stephen J. Hedges
With its potent mix of oil fields, Iraqi troops and a rebellious, angry Kurdish population, northern Iraq is considered vital by the Bush administration and U.S. military planners. They hope that a rapid plunge of U.S. forces into the region would shock Iraqi troops into surrender, check infighting among ethnic factions and secure oil fields that Iraq might set on fire, as it did in Kuwait in 1991.
Such a plunge would be difficult to accomplish without the cooperation of Turkey, whose military bases and proximity to Iraq make it an ideal staging area for a U.S. invasion. Yet the NATO ally has been reluctant to sanction a war or play host to the 80,000 troops the United States originally sought to deploy. Fearing economic and military turmoil, Turkey has begun a regional diplomatic push to end the Iraq standoff without war. Western diplomats and Turkish media also say Ankara has let the United States know it should dramatically scale back the number of troops it wants to base in Turkey.
Meeting with his Turkish counterpart in Ankara on Monday, Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, denied reports that Washington was losing patience with Turkey and scaling back plans for a sweeping push into northern Iraq.
"Turkey has been a very cooperative partner," Myers said. "I would expect them to be in the future as well."
Without Turkey's cooperation, U.S. forces would have to travel into northern Iraq from ships in the Mediterranean, or be airlifted directly into Iraq from Germany. Either option would make resupply difficult and slow.
"Turkey is essential," said Morton Abramowitz, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey during the 1991 Persian Gulf war and a senior fellow at The Century Foundation in Washington. "Otherwise it becomes enormously complicated and costly."
Last week, Turkey's new prime minister, Abdullah Gul, did give a little ground, allowing 150 U.S. military surveyors to examine 10 bases for possible upgrades and improvements that U.S. forces would need. Government officials then hinted in newspaper accounts that a U.S. force of about 15,000 troops might be acceptable, though Turkey's parliament must approve the use of bases by foreign troops.
Fewer troops likely
"The number is going to be significantly lower than it was originally reported," said one Western diplomat in Ankara. "We have tried to be responsive to Turkish concerns and we have gone back and scrubbed for what we absolutely need."
In the face of growing pressure from Washington for use of its bases, Turkey invited foreign ministers from Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to discuss the growing crisis. Gul also corresponded with Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, urging him to take steps to prevent a war.
The new Turkish government may be simply holding out for a better deal than the $5 billion to $20 billion aid package the United States already offered. The nation's lucrative border trade with Iraq has been sharply curtailed by international sanctions against Baghdad.
Turkey's final word on the bases is not expected until after Jan. 27, when UN inspectors make a more detailed report to the UN Security Council on Iraqi efforts to build weapons of mass destruction.
The U.S. has asked NATO to supply logistical and material aid to an Iraq war effort, a portion of which would directly benefit Turkey. That would include Patriot missile batteries to intercept Iraqi Scud missiles fired at Turkey in retaliation.
The U.S. also has offered generous terms with which Turkey could purchase new arms. Reuters reported last week that the Bush administration had approved $324 million in U.S. Export-Import Bank credits with which Turkey could purchase eight American-made Seahawk and six Black Hawk helicopters.
U.S. officials say the teams surveying Turkish bases are looking at which facilities need to be upgraded, and how that could be done quickly. In many cases, they said, local contractors would be hired to improve water and waste systems, fuel storage facilities and the like. Those improvements would be made at U.S. expense and would remain as a benefit to Turkey, they said.
"Those contracts will be let fairly quickly, on the spot," said an Army official.
For military planners, the importance of Turkey's cooperation -- and the use of bases in the southeastern part of the country -- cannot be overstated. U.S. invasion planners have concluded that a Northern Front would tie up important Republican Guard and regular Iraqi divisions.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates there may be as many as 14 Iraqi divisions in the north, though their preparedness and loyalty are in question.
A quick defeat of those northern Iraqi divisions would open the way for U.S. troops south to Baghdad, while the larger armored and mechanized infantry elements now mustering in Kuwait attempt a swift, sweeping charge north to the Iraqi capital and Hussein's base of power.
U.S. forces massed in Turkey likely would stage their airborne and overland assaults into Iraq from southeastern Turkish military bases such as those in Batman and Diyarbakir, in the portion of Turkey populated by ethnic Kurds.
Base used in gulf war
They also will use the air base at Incirlik, in the south-central city of Adana. Allied forces used Incirlik to raid Iraqi targets during the 1991 gulf war, and it has since played host to U.S. and British fighter jets patrolling the UN-mandated northern "no-fly" zone over Iraq. Those patrols, which ensure that the Iraq military has no use of helicopters or planes over northern Iraq's Kurdish enclave, have destroyed a significant number of Iraqi anti-aircraft systems.
With Turkish cooperation, the U.S. also would benefit from the use of Mediterranean port facilities, a vital logistical link in supplying American forces.
The United States already is positioning its forces for a northern front. In December, command officers from the Army's V Corps, based in Heidelberg, Germany, were dispatched to the Persian Gulf nation of Qatar. That's where the joint services Central Command, which would direct a war against Iraq, has established its own gulf headquarters.
Military analysts expected the V Corps' 1st Armored or 1st Infantry divisions to be involved in a northern front. So, too, might elements of the 101st Airborne from Ft. Campbell, Ky., a unit well-practiced in air assaults.
GRAPHIC: GRAPHICGRAPHIC: U.S. seeks Turkish support for northern Iraq invasion; Turkey recently allowed U.S. officials to examine air bases that might be used to stage a U.S.-led invasion into northern Iraq. From these bases, military analysts say, troops most likely would enter Iraq aiming to seize control of the country's northern air bases and oil fields.; Sources: GlobalSecurity.org.GeoDesign; Chicago Tribune.; - See microfilm for complete graphic.
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