Courier Mail August 10, 2002
Saddam defiant as US steps up war preparations
By Sid Maher
 Al Udeid Airbase, Qatar Picture of the Week |
The upgrade of the strategic US airbase only bolstered arguments that the US military is grinding ahead with preparations for a new war against Iraq.
But in Baghdad this week, Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein thumbed his nose at the Americans in a typical act of defiance. He said, in a nationally televised speech, that any invader who attacked his country would be "digging their own graves". Saddam also appears to have a war plan of his own -- hide his forces in his cities and make the Americans take Iraq's capital Baghdad block by block.
On the sidelines, continental European nations have publicly opposed an attack. Arab nations, fearing an American attack on Iraq would bolster Islamic fundamentalism, have been moving to distance themselves from the US.
Australia has been a rare voice in support of deposing Saddam.
Saudi Arabia this week said it would not allow its bases to be used in a war on Iraq, and the King of Jordan last week made a similar plea to the Americans not to attack Saddam.
US President George W. Bush this week continued to say he hadn't made up his mind on war with Iraq.
Bush said he would "explore all options, all tools at my disposal: diplomacy, international pressure, perhaps in even the military". Bush also said he would consult the US Congress and European allies.
But military analysts spoken to by The Courier-Mail predicted an attack on Iraq was becoming increasingly likely.
John Pike of Global Security, a think-tank that obtained the satellite photographs of the al Udeid base in Qatar, said: "I think military action has been a certainty against Iraq for two years."
Ivan Eland, director of Defence Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, a Washington think-tank, said Bush was likely to decide on a plan within the next month and launch an attack in the New Year.
Eland predicts the opposition in Europe and Middle East towards an attack on Iraq will evaporate once the military plans are set in motion. He said Bush would want to keep the neo-conservative movement in the US -- strong supporters of his who back a military strike -- energised to help his re-election prospects in 2004.
In another boost for proponents of military action, reports in Washington this week suggested that US armed forces leaders had reached a consensus in support of military action against Saddam, dropping earlier opposition. Another leak suggested General Tommy Franks, the commander-in-chief of the US Central Command, on Monday briefed Bush on the latest military option which called for upwards of 80,000 troops plus a massive air campaign in Iraq.
The base in Qatar plus US bases in Kuwait and southern Turkey would be the most likely launchpads for an air campaign.
Work also has intensified to cobble together a regime to replace Saddam. Six representatives of the Iraqi National Congress were in Washington this week at the invitation of the Defence Department and the State Department to discuss a post-Saddam transition.
A spokesman for the INC, Sharif Ali Bin AlHussein, told a packed press conference in Washington on Thursday that the Iraqi people would rise up to overthrow the dictator once military action was started by the US.
"The entirety of the Iraqi population is opposed to Saddam," AlHussein said. "There is not a single person that will fight for or defend him."
But in Baghdad, Saddam remained defiant.
"The forces of evil will carry their coffins on their backs, die in disgraceful failure, taking their schemes back with them, or digging their own graves," he said.
Reports suggest Saddam aims to thwart the US invasion by avoiding open desert war and massing his military in urban areas. This would protect his military from US warplanes and hi-tech weaponry.
If the Republican Guard dug in, Bush would then have to decide whether to wipe out large areas of the city and risk heavy civilian casualties among the population of five million, or root out the pro-Saddam forces street by street and block by block, using conventional street warfare and risking heavy American casualties.
Eland said Saddam appeared to have learnt from his defeat in Desert Storm.
"They'll have to take Baghdad block by block," Eland said.
"In an urban area, a sniper can hold up whole columns."
Copyright 2002 Nationwide News Pty Limited
