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Russo-Ukraine War - 2020

In 2020, Kremlin officials launched a comprehensive information operation plan designed in part to degrade the ability of the Ukrainian state to function independently and without Russian interference. This included identifying and co-opting pro-Russian individuals in Ukraine and undermining prominent Ukrainians viewed as pro-Western, who would stand in the way of Russian efforts to bring Ukraine within its control. Goals of the plan included destabilizing the political situation in Ukraine and laying the groundwork for creating a new, Russian-controlled government in Ukraine.

Russia has directed its intelligence services to recruit current and former Ukrainian government officials to prepare to take over the government of Ukraine and to control Ukraine’s critical infrastructure with an occupying Russian force. At the heart of this effort are Taras Kozak and Oleh Voloshyn, two current Ukrainian Members of Parliament from the party led by Victor Medvedchuk.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy secured a ceasefire and an expanded no-contact zone at the Normandy Four meeting in December 2019. In 2020, there was a possibility that some sort of peace deal could be reached with Russia. Remaining issues include timing of when control of the border be returned to Kyiv (Zelenskiy: before elections in Donbas; Putin: after elections), changes to the Ukrainian constitution (special status granted to Donbas); an amnesty for everyone involved in the conflict; and the details of the Steinmeier Formula, the mechanism to deescalate the fighting.

The resumption of the Normandy Four talks, the disengagement of forces in Stanitsa Luganskaya, Zolotoye and Petrovskoye, and a prisoner swap are all Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s first steps towards resolving the Donbass conflict. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, this offers specifics to look into 2020 with cautious optimism but no breakthroughs can be expected on the horizon.

If the Ukrainian president becomes more determined in 2020, more impressive results may be achieved, Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Relations with Compatriots Leonid Kalashnikov told the newspaper. "As of now, one can look at the prospects for resolving the conflict with cautious optimism. There are reasons for that, which include the disengagement of forces and the prisoner exchange. I think this trend will remain for quite a long time. Ukraine is not ready to take more decisive steps. However, Zelensky is indeed trying to contain the forces that seek to undermine the peace process," he pointed out.

Since July 27, 2020, the Contact Group on ironing out the situation in eastern Ukraine introduced additional measures to control the ceasefire in Donbass. Under the agreement, the Donbass conflicting parties are banned from carrying out offensive and reconnaissance operations, using any types of aircraft, opening fire and deploying heavy weapons in populated localities. One of the key provisions is the use of disciplinary measures for ceasefire violations. Furthermore, the backfire in the case of an offensive is allowed only after the commander's direct order.

The Normandy Four summit offered a glimmer of hope, said Director of the Institute of Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology Denis Denisov. However, in his view, the problem is that no breakthroughs have been achieved. "If the process remains limited to prisoner exchanges and the disengagement of forces, then efforts to resolve the situation may stall once again," the commentator emphasized.

The issue is that there is no systemic movement towards a solution, Director of the Kiev Center for Political Studies and Conflictology Mikhail Pogrebinsky explained. Donbass needs the Minsk Agreements to be fully implemented and the war in the trenches to end, but the current Ukrainian authorities are not yet ready for that. According to the Ukrainian political analyst, 2020 may see "slow efforts to implement disengagement agreements in new areas, which will reduce the number of shelling attacks," but nothing more can be expected.

One of Zelensky's two main promises was to bring the war to an end, a goal that polls had shown Ukrainians want to see accomplished more than anything. He showed a real willingness to end the war. The world saw it, too -- that the real desire for peace was on the part of Ukraine, not Russia. Throughout Zelenskiy's tenure, Kyiv and Western officials say, Russia has continued to funnel money, military equipment, and fighters to eastern Ukraine. There was some progress, with three major prisoner exchanges, troop withdrawals in three locations on the line between government-controlled and separatist-held territory, and the completion of a vital civilian bridge in the front-line town of Stanytsya Luhanska. He did not achieve peace on Russian terms, which would be unacceptable for most Ukrainians.