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Pashtun Taliban Insurgency - 2021

Afghanistan has remained the world’s most violent country for the past four years. Since the beginning of NATO's official troop withdrawal from Afghanistan on 01 May 2021, the Taliban Islamist militant group had taken over at least 27 districts from Afghan forces, and the number was rapidly increasing. Experts said that Taliban feel emboldened by the US' decision to withdraw all troops form Afghanistan by September 2021. The Taliban are intensifying attacks across Afghanistan to gain more territory ahead of NATO's troop withdrawal in September. The militant group now controls vast swaths of land. Heavy fighting in many districts in recent weeks inflicted heavy losses on both Taliban and government forces.

The group's attempts to take over district capitals resulted in civilian casualties. Taliban fighters have destroyed government buildings in some district capitals after capturing the cities for a short period of time and then withdrawing. Khan Abad, in Afghanistan's northern Kunduz province district, fell to the Taliban in May, but the militants were subsequently pushed back by government forces.

Washington, which signed a deal with Taliban in 2020, hoped that the militant group will engage in intra-Afghan talks and work with the government to consolidate the peace process. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's governmentrepeatedly urged the Taliban to declare a countrywide cease-fire. However, attacks across Afghanistan have increased instead. The US-Taliban agreement in Doha in 2020 and the unconditional withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan in 2021 boosted the Taliban's morale. Taliban leaders know they can defeat the government in Kabul. There was a surge in their attacks on Afghan districts. Afghan security forces had been weakened as they no longer have NATO air support.

Despite claims by some Western officials that Afghan security forces were strong enough to deal with security challenges, the situation on the ground appears to be exactly the opposite. Afghan security forces were financially and militarily dependent on the US. And without its support, they were in a tough spot.

Experts said the withdrawal of foreign troops would leave Afghan civilians at the mercy of Islamists. The Taliban are not the only threat to Afghan forces; militant groups such as "Islamic State" (IS) have also gained a foothold. "The Taliban are stronger than ever. IS and other terrorist groups have gained a foothold in Afghanistan. Therefore, the consequences of a hasty and irresponsible withdrawal from Afghanistan could be dangerous not only for Afghanistan but also for the region and the world," Raihana Azad, a member of the Afghan parliament, told DW.

In the countryside, Taliban fighters armed with automatic rifles demand money from farmers. People say they sometimes have to pay up to half their monthly income to the Taliban as taxes. That money funds the purchase of weapons. To earn a living now, more farmers have turned to growing poppies for opium and heroin.

As the US moved to pull all its troops out of Afghanistan, the Taliban were recruiting more fighters. Islamic religious schools, or madrassas, have become bases for finding future militants. Clerics with links to the Taliban teach them strict Islamic doctrine.

The Taliban controlled half of the roughly 420 district centers in Afghanistan, the top US general said on 21 July 2021, in the latest sign of the rapidly deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that more than 200 of the 419 district centers were under Taliban control. In late June 2021, Milley had said the Taliban controlled 81 of the 419 district centers in Afghanistan. “Strategic momentum appears to be sort of with the Taliban,” Milley told reporters.

“What they’re trying to do is isolate the major population centres. They’re trying to do the same thing to Kabul,” Milley said. In response, Afghan government forces are “consolidating” their positions to protect population centres and the fighting is expected to escalate in the coming weeks following the Eid al-Adha holiday.

The news coming out of Afghanistan was bleak. The Taliban offensive that began early in the quarter accelerated in June and July. According to media reporting, the Taliban also controlled large stretches of multiple major highways, and at least six international border crossings as this report went to press. The ANDSF has retaken some districts and the Afghan government still controls all 34 provincial capitals, including Kabul, but from public reporting, the ANDSF appeared surprised and unready, and is now on its back foot. Civilian casualties hit a record high in May and June, according to the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan. The overall trend was clearly unfavorable to the Afghan government, which could face an existential crisis if it wasn’t addressed and reversed.

The Taliban armed group seized power 15 August 2021 after it entered the capital Kabul, capturing 26 out of the country’s 34 provincial capitals in the past 10 days. The armed group, which was toppled from power in a United States-led invasion in 2001, stepped up its campaign to defeat the Western-backed government in May 2021 as foreign forces started to withdraw from the country.

President Ashraf Ghani fled the country 15 August 2021 amid the Taliban’s rapid advance, which saw the group capture 26 of Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals in less than two weeks. Ghani later said in a statement posted on Facebook that he fled to prevent further bloodshed. “The Taliban have won with the judgement of their swords and guns, and are now responsible for the honour, property and self-preservation of their countrymen,” he said.