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Somalia Civil War - Jubaland

Founded most recently on April 3, 2011, Jubaland was the newest self-declared state within Somalia. It was led by a former Somali defense minister, Mohamed Abdi Gandhi. Supported by Kenya, Jubaland was intended to serve as a buffer state between war-torn central Somalia, al-Shabaab, and the Kenyan border. Kenya provided military assistance to Jubaland, but the military offensive did not prove effective. Kenya has been one of the region’s largest proponents of establishing an autonomous state and buffer zone in the Juba Valley. Reports suggest that 2,500 Somali youth from the Juba Valley and Dadaab Refugee Camp have been trained by the Kenyan government.

Jubaland Dervish forces won several major battles in Raskamboni, Jubaland in December 2024, where forces from Mogadishu belonging to the Federal Government had taken over Jubaland in recent weeks. Jubaland forces repelled the federal troops and took full control of Kambooni airport, marking a significant military and political victory for Ahmed Madobe. The Federal Government forces had been brought in by aircraft and founding it difficult to receive further support.

The surrendering soldiers and those who fled across the Kenyan border represent a significant blow to the federal government’s credibility and military capabilities. As the dust settled, the incident raises serious questions about the stability of Somalia’s political and military institutions.

Heavy fighting broke out in Manaraani, north of Raaskanbooni, after Jubaland Dervish forces and Federal Government forces recently deployed in Raaskanbooni, part of Jubaland, clashed. Jubaland Dervish forces deployed to Buurgaabo, near Raaskanbooni. Reports indicate that the Federal Government forces launched the battle out of fear of capturing the Oodow well, which was owned by the person who owns Raskanbooni, and was the only well that supplies water to the city, approximately 8km away.

Reports indicate that the government forces, in an offensive, had taken the battle to an unexpected place. Jubaland has claimed that it achieved a major victory over the forces that invaded as they claimed, captured prisoners and was now in control of the Oodow well. The Oodow well is strategic, and if the Jubaland claim was true, it meant that they are in control of Raaskanbooni.

Somali clans can be approximately associated with specific geographical regions of ‘greater’ Somalia, given the nomads’ vigorous genealogical pride and traditional scorn for cultivators. Somali men are generally polygamous, and marriage is very unstable, its purpose mainly to produce a large male brood, with implicit coercive power considered as insurance.

The Darod are the largest of all the Somali clans, and their members are in fact to be found distributed over the entire greater Somalia region. The broad area of central and southern Somalia down to the Juba river was predominantly populated by Rahanweyn and Digil clans, these both being commonly known as cultivators and workers of the land. Across the Juba river and moving over the border into northern Kenya, the Darod are the dominant clan. Its Marehan sub-clan lives in areas in the extreme southwest of the country, near the Kenyan border.

The old area called Jubaland or Trans-Juba, was entirely west of the Juba river. In 1895 Dr. Donaldson Smith explored the volcanic regions east of Lake Rudolf, which were crossed by Count Eduard Wickenburg in 1901, and again described by Captain Stigand in his book, To Abyssinia through an Unknown Land. In 1909 Mr. G. F. Archer carried out the first scientific exploration of this part of British East Africa.

In May 1909 that the British Government decided to occupy effectively the country lying between the Juba River and Lake Rudolf, south of the Abyssinian frontier. An effective administration of this territory was deemed advisable in order to check intertribal warfare and to protect the Borana, who were living in the Protectorate, and were friendly, from the lawless raiding parties from Abyssinia. Jubaland was bounded on the east by the Juba River, beyond which was Italian Somaliland, on the south-east by the Indian Ocean, and on the south by an imaginary line drawn from the Lorian Swamp to the Bajun settlement of Kiunga on the coast. To the south of this line was the province of Tanaland.

Somalia's present-day border with Kenya was a result of the secret arrangements that brought Italy into World War I on the side of the Allies. Britain promised to cede part of its own colonial holdings in compensation for Italy's exclusion from the division of German colonial territory already agreed to by Britain and France. A treaty drawn up in 1920 and ratified in 1924 provided that Italy take over the area west of the Juba River up to the 16Historical Setting forty-first parallel, including the port of Kismaayo (Kisimayo). Known as Jubaland, it was incorporated into Italian Somaliland the following year. The new boundary left a Somali-populated area (Northern Frontier District) within Kenya that was equal in size to the ceded territory.

Jubaland was a part of British East Africa until 1925 when it was ceded to Italy as a compensation for its help in the Great War. After being ceded by Kenya, it was called Oltre Giuba by the Italians and soon became part of Italian Somaliland. The northern portion of this ceded strip, together with an area east of the Juba river, eventually became known as Upper Juba province. On 29 June 1925, at a solemn ceremony at Kismayu, the English colonial authorities transferred the territory to Italy to be known as Oltre Giuba (Trans-Juba). At the end of the first year of Italian occupation, on 01 July 1926, the territory of Oltre Giuba was formally annexed to the colony of Italian Somalia as the Juba region.

In 1998, one of the Somali warlords, Mohamed Said Hersi Morgan, gained control over Jubaland and proclaimed an independent republic This was not recognized by anybody. In 1999, the Juba Valley Alliance, led by Ahmed Warsame, overthrew Morgan and in the 2001 the Jubaland republic ceased to exist following a treaty with the Somali provisional government. The JVA chose to join the Transitional National Government (TNG) on 18 June 2001, but in January 2006 they changed their minds and formed their own autonomous state of Jubaland. This state lasted less than a year as the Union of Islamic Courts brought over to their side numerous factions of the JVA and took over Kismayo without firing a shot on 24 September 2006.

As of 2008 authorities from the three Regions of Southern Somalia, namely the Gedo Region, Lower Jubba Region, and the Middle Jubba Region were working towards the unification of these Regions to make one unified Provincial Regional Authority, named Jubaland. This Jubaland Initiative was created to bring about local stability, in the model of the autonomous Puntland and Somaliland regions in the northern part of the country. Ethiopia was reportedly unhappy about the Jubaland Initiative and Kenya's involvement in it, as it feared that the project will have an effect on its own military struggle against rebels in the Somali-inhabited Ogaden region, who seek independence.

The Marehan sub-clan established, with Kenyan support, a new secular administration for a semi-autonomous “Jubaland” in 2010, loosely following the leads of Somaliland and Puntland.

By 2021, Somalia faced an impasse over the electoral process which could determine the future of democracy in the country. The resolution of this impasse will impact the unity of Somalia. One of the disptues entailed the withdrawal of federal troops from the Gedo region of Jubaland State and that Jubaland be given free autonomy to administer elections in the two polling stations in the state. Negotiation between the Federal Government of Somalia and the presidents of the five Federal Member States failed to reach an agreement.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced the second phase of the military offensive against al-Shabaab at the end of March 2023. The new phase reportedly aims to flush out al-Shabaab from the remaining parts of the country under its control, following the first phase that began in August 2022. While the operation initially focused on central Somalia, starting in Hirshabelle and then expanding to Galmudug state, the second phase aims to expand to southern regions—Southwest and Jubaland states.

In the first phase, the government sought support from clan militias from the Hawiye clan, and regained substantial territory from al-Shabaab. Subsequently, clan militias played a vital role in the government-led operation. On the other hand, Jubaland State Minister of Security Yusuf Hussein Dhuumal reportedly rejected such plans to involve local clan militias. The most prominent sub-clan in Gedo region was the Marehan sub-clan of the Darod clan, which opposes Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam—also known as ‘Madobe’— from the Ogaden sub-clan of the Darod clan. Marehan and Ogaden sub-clans have been fighting over the control of Kismayo since the 1990s. Jubaland administration feared that arming Marehan clan militias in Gedo would trip the balance of power in favor of the Marehan sub-clan. Nevertheless, Jubaland security forces continued conducting military operations against al-Shabaab despite the lack of support from local communities.

Jubaland forces emerged victorious 11 December 2024 in a series of battles around Raskambooni, forcing hundreds of Somalia National Army (SNA) soldiers to surrender and flee across the Kenyan border. The dramatic escalation of tensions between Jubaland and the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) erupted following a political dispute centered on the electoral system in Somalia.

In October 2024 Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam dramatically walked out of the National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting in Mogadishu. The disagreement escalated further when Jubaland President Madobe held a controversial election in November 2024, securing his position as the third president of Jubaland after constitutional changes to presidential term limits.

The federal government, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, rejected the election as illegal and subsequently issued an arrest warrant for Ahmed Madobe. In late November and early December 2024, federal troops were deployed by air to capture Raaskamboni, with the explicit aim of removing Madobe from power.However, the military intervention backfired spectacularly.

Dozens of al-Shabab militants were killed in clashes in the southern Jubaland state in late July 2024. The clashes followed three separate coordinated attacks the militants carried out on military bases manned by federal and regional forces in the west and south of Kismayo town. The militants have attacked Bulo Haji, Harbole, and Mido, all of which were seized from al-Shabab since last month. The militants also fired on a fourth base at Bar Sanguni in an apparent attempt to disrupt possible reinforcement to the bases under attack. Spokesperson for the Jubaland regional forces Major Mohamed Farah Dahir told VOA Somali that 135 militants were killed in the attacks.

The flag of Jubaland, an autonomous region in southern Somalia, consists of three horizontal stripes and a single white star.

• Top Stripe (Blue): Represents the Somali flag, indicating Jubaland as part of the Somali nation.
• Middle Stripe (White): Symbolizes peace and unity within the region.
• Bottom Stripe (Green): Represents the region's natural resources and agriculture.
• White Star: Placed in the top blue stripe, symbolizing unity and its connection to the Somali flag.

This represents the region's identity and connection to Somalia. Several other completely different designs are also in circulation.