Panarin - American Breakup
Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, many Russians blamed the United States for their plight; a seething resentment over the US role in the loss of Russian national power is one of the reasons Vladimir Putin is so popular. A leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.
Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily Izvestia published on 24 November 2008: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."
The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.
When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator." When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."
Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles." He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."
He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong. He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all."
On the fate of the U.S. dollar, he said: "In 2006 a secret agreement was reached between Canada, Mexico and the U.S. on a common Amero currency as a new monetary unit. This could signal preparations to replace the dollar. The one-hundred dollar bills that have flooded the world could be simply frozen. Under the pretext, let's say, that terrorists are forging them and they need to be checked."
When asked how Russia should react to his vision of the future, Panarin said: "Develop the ruble as a regional currency. Create a fully functioning oil exchange, trading in rubles... We must break the strings tying us to the financial Titanic, which in my view will soon sink."
In 2012 he wrote "We are talking about the possibility of creating a position familiar to us on the rapid disintegration of the Russian Empire after the conspiracy of British intelligence and the overthrow of the tsar in February 1917. Events then developed with incredible speed, and the authorities simply did not have time to react. The belated reaction of the US authorities to the flood in New York, etc. testify that the American system of management and decision-making can not effectively act in crisis situations. Even the very fact that the US took humanitarian aid from Russia after Hurricane Sandy (two IL-76 military transport planes from Russia brought 50 tons of humanitarian cargo to New York).
"The map of the potential disintegration of the United States into six parts I created back in August 1998. First of all, economic and ethnic differences between the US states were taken into account when it was created. An important factor I took into account was the history of America. After all, Alaska for a long time was part of the Russian Empire, and Texas, for example, was an independent state. After all, California was part of the US very late, in the middle of the 19th century. Atlantic America is very different from Pacific America, and financial capital is dominant there. In Pacific America, computer technology dominates. But few people know that 80% of notebooks are manufactured in China. Very large economic interrelations between Atlantic America and China."
Panarin is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.
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