Tokelau - Climate
Tokelau, being located in the easterly trade wind zone, has a tropical and marine climate. The mean annual temperature is 28 degrees centigrade and the mean annual rainfall is 2800 millimeters. July is the coolest month and May the warmest. From April to November the east-southeasterly trade winds dominate climatic conditions. Rainfall is heavy but irregular. A daily fall of 80 mm or more can be expected at any time of the year. There is a marked seasonality in rainfall incidence, with the 6 months between October and March accounting for about 60% of the total ammal rainfall; December and January account for 25% of the annual total.
Severe tropical storms, once rare, have become more frequent in recent years. Cyclones in 1987, 1990 and 1991 caused extensive damage to houses and general infrastructure. The recent impacts of climate change have already been felt in Tokelau, with a severe drought in 2011, followed by Cyclone Evan in 2012.
It is widely accepted that climate change and related hazards pose an existential threat to Tokelau. This reality makes it critical for Tokelau to have a national climate change strategy in place.
The most significant climate change related hazards affecting Tokelau are tropical cyclones, severe weather systems (nontropical cyclone storms resulting in heavy rains and flooding), drought, flooding associated with storm surges and king tides, sea level rise, water spouts, disease epidemics, bush fires, landslides and tsunamis. While earthquakes are not related to climate change, they do cause tsunamis and can impact critical infrastructure. As such, the threat of tsunami run-up onto low-lying atolls can be exacerbated by climate-change induced sea-level rise.
Although Tokelau is in an area of relatively low tropical cyclone activity due primarily to its position far north in the southwest Pacific basin, the risk is elevated during El Niño seasons. There were at least five tropical cyclones possibly impacting Tokelau by coming within 278km from 1970-2015.
This small atoll nation has several claims to achievements, especially in recent years. Perhaps the most globally profound of these has been the dedication, foresight and public commitment towards curbing global climate change. Tokelau has set its collective sights on a target of 100% renewable energy and aspires to be the first nation of the world to achieve this. Is this realistic? Yes. Is this achievable? Well not without further support, assistance and sustainable partnerships, especially in the key areas of sustainable development proposed in the SIDS Outcome Document.
Since 2010 Tokelau has embarked on a tremendous journey towards the sustainable development goal. It has indeed, through the initial help of both New Zealand and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), established a Tokelau Renewable Energy Plan (TREP Phase I). Tokelau has now established a solar voltaic grid system on each atoll commissioned since 2012. This system of electrification can realise a total island-by-island electricity supply (nearly 100%) with some supplemental support, provided under the TREP, by generators and/or additional solar voltaic panels added to the grid.
As an atoll nation, Tokelau is highly susceptible to climate change and related hazards. This reality led the Tokelau General Fono, in July 2016, to include climate change as part of its national development priorities under the Tokelau National Development Framework, 2016-2020. The "Living with Change: An Integrated National Strategy for Enhancing the Resilience of Tokelau to Climate Change and Related Hazards, 2017-2030" (LivC) plan is Tokelau’s response to the General Fono’s resolution. Its vision is for Tokelau to be a vibrant, innovative, climate-resilient, and climate-ready nation, with healthy communities, ecosystems, and an economy, that are all resilient in the face of change.
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