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Marshall Islands - Climate

For many years, the Marshall Islands Government has been concerned with the issue of global climate change. A major study on the detection and possible impacts of climate change and sea level rise in the Marshall Islands was commissioned in the early 1990's. It was completed in 1992 by a team from the RMI EPA, led by a Harvard scientist working on contract with the government. The report has since been included in the bibliography of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The Marshall Islands experiences tropical storms and typhoons, which can cause flooding, landslides and other disruptions to services. The direction and strength of typhoons can change with little warning. Typhoons are more likely between July and November and typically peak in August/September, but typhoons can occur throughout the year.

The weather in the Marshall Islands is tropical - hot and humid, but tempered by trade-winds which prevail throughout the year. The average temperature hovers around 80 degrees Fahrenheit and rarely fluctuates. This is one of the most outstanding features of the climate, in fact, the range between the coolest and the warmest months averages less than 1 degree Fahrenheit. Also interesting is the fact that nights, although they feel cooler, are actually 2-4 degrees warmer than the average daily minimum, this is because the lowest temperatures usually occur during heavy showers in the daytime.

Rainfall varies greatly throughout the Marshall Islands. In the wet, southern atolls, rainfall can average as much as 160 inches per year, while the dry, northern atolls may only average 20 inches. When rain does fall is often heavy. There is also a wet and dry season, with the wettest months being between May and November.

Like elsewhere in the Pacific, the skies are quite cloudy. Cumuliform clouds are predominant but anostratus-altocumulus and cirriform clouds are also present most of the time. Tropical storms are very rare; although, in the last 3 years there have been three major cyclones. Much more common are minor storms of the easterly wave type, especially from March to April and October to November.

Regional rainfall patterns had an effect on settlement; the 1860 population figures showed a rough correlation between number of persons and latitude. There was a north-south rainfall gradient, with the south receiving the most rainfall. With respect to the side of the atoll, storm waves and typhoons make the east and northeast sides very vulnerable. In addition, there is the indication on Kwajalein that this side of the atoll tends to receive less rainfall, further reducing its attractiveness as a settlement location.

A second factor, islet size, is a determinant of the availability of subsurface potable water for human consumption and agriculture. Because rainfall on atolls is so variable from year to year, it is important to reside and cultivate on land that maximizes survival potential. Also, the swamp taro, Cyrtospgrma chamissonis, an important food crop in the Marshall Islands, requires a wet soil medium for proper cultivation. Small islets therefore, would not be expected to contain much evidence for habitation or agriculture.

The physical characteristics of the Marshall Islands would give any visitor the best indicator as to why the RMI Government is so concerned with sea level rise. Approximately 1225 islets in 29 atolls scattered over 3/4 million square miles, the average height above sea level is 7 feet or 2 meters. The highest land area is on Likiep Atoll, where the elevation reaches a maximum altitude of only six meters. Fragile coral reefs fringe the atolls, and serve as the only line of defense against the ocean surge. The clearance over the reef in the sections that are covered by water is usually no more than a couple of feet. In other places the reef is commonly only barely submerged.

The Marshall Islands lie in open ocean, and the islands are generally very close to sea level. The vulnerability to waves and storm surges is at the best of times precarious. Although the islands have by no means been completely free from weather extremes, they are more frequently referred to in folklore as "jolet jen Anij" (gifts from God). The sense that Marshall Islands was a God-given sanctuary away from the harshness of other areas is therefore part of the socio-cultural identity of the people. However, given the physics of wave formation and the increasing frequency and severity of storms, the Marshall Islands will likely be at even greater risk. The relative safety that the islands have historically provided is now in jeopardy. It is likely that evacuation would have to be effected long before inundation is total.

The Marshallese would become among the first of many environmental refugees. This would be a devastating disruption not only for the culture and the people of the island countries, but also for the countries that would need to accommodate the refugees. The impacts are not limited to the Marshalls and its immediate neighbors. The Marshall Islands are often referred to as a "front line state" with regard to the climate change issue. It is important to realize that once the potentially catastrophic effects begin to appear there, it is likely already too late to prevent further warming that will threaten virtually all of the world's coastal regions.

For these reasons, the RMI has participated actively in negotiations for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its protocols, and continues to do so.