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Japanese Politics - 2025

The rising cost of staple goods has emerged as a key issue this Upper House Election. Many parties are pitching cash handouts and tax cuts to solve the growing crisis. Japan's Consumer Price Index had risen by over 3 percent for six months straight. But real wages, adjusted for inflation, had been falling. Many political parties are touting immediate solutions. Some say they will slash taxes. Others offer cash payments. But while these measures may produce short-term results, the long-term effects are unclear.

NHK asked 14 parties and political organizations what the government should do to counter rising prices. The survey offered six potential answers: support for wage hikes, support for all households, support for low-income households, support for businesses, tax cuts, and other. The Liberal Democratic Party and Japanese Communist Party said wages need to be raised. Komeito said the government should offer support to all households. The Path to Rebirth said the government should support low-income households. Tax cuts were the most popular answer. This option was selected by The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Japan Innovation Party, Democratic Party for the People, Reiwa Shinsengumi, Sanseito, Conservative Party of Japan, Social Democratic Party, The Collaborative Party, and NHK Party. Tax cuts lead to funding shortfalls for social security programs and local government subsidies. So tax cuts could produce major effects, but lead to major side effects as well.

On 20 July 2025 voters headed to the polls in Japan's Upper House election. Campaigning officially kicked off on July 3. Over 500 candidates from across the country were running. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s Liberal Democratic Party and its partner Komeito hope to keep their majority in the Upper House. Opposition parties were trying to topple it, aiming for a repeat of last October's Lower House election, which saw the ruling coalition lose their majority. But while all the seats are up for grabs in the Lower House elections, the Upper House system is a bit more complicated. The Upper House is made up of 248 members with six-year terms. But elections are held every three years, with half the seats up for grabs each time. This year, voters are weighing in on the usual 124 seats, plus one extra that has been vacant. Of those, 75 are elected via electoral districts. The remaining 50 are filled through proportional representation.

The ruling coalition of the LDP and the Buddhist Komei Party missed its self-imposed target of retaining a majority in the upper house of parliament, with 125 of 248 seats up for reelection. The coalition missed by only three seats, which was an unexpectedly close result.

The Sanseito party went into the election campaign with the openly xenophobic slogan "Japanese First" and has accused the government of pursuing a "policy of concealed immigration." The number of foreign residents in Japan grew by 10% in 2024 to just under 4 million. The Sanseito Party claims that recruiting foreigners as workers to address an ageing and shrinking population will disrupt Japan's social harmony. Founder Sohei Kamiya has said his party has been modeled after Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, and other European far-right parties.

The Democratic Party for the People, with its charismatic leader Yuichiro Tamaki, is now the third strongest force in the party system, which lends political weight to its main demand for tax cuts. "Both right-wing parties were able to capitalize on the anger of the younger generations towards the political system," analyst Tobias Harris told DW, citing percieved gerontocracy, inflation and stagnant wages as key factors.

The LDP's election debacle came as many voters are dissatisfied with the three-year decline in real wages caused by high inflation, along with a sharp increase in foreign workers and tourists. Two young, right-wing populist parties benefited the most from this, but the largest opposition group, the Constitutional Democratic Party of former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, hardly benefited at all. The Sanseito party, which is only five years old, increased its number of seats in the upper house from two to 14 and the Democratic Party for the People from nine to 17.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on 07 September 2025 announced that he will step down as the head of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), amid growing calls for him to take responsibility for the party's election setback, Xinhua News Agency reported. Ishiba held an impromptu press conference at the Prime Minister's Official Residence starting from 6:00 pm (local time) on Sunday, according to Nikkei Shimbun. At the beginning of the press conference, Ishiba stated, "I have decided to resign from the position of LDP President," the report said.

Ishiba explained that it was no longer necessary to proceed with the procedure to determine whether to move up the party leadership election. He added, "I request that the process to select a new president be initiated," Nikkei reported. The LDP had been scheduled to decide on whether to advance the leadership election on Monday, as calls for moving up the vote had been growing among the party members. The prime minister expressed concern, stating, "proceeding with the confirmation process for an early leadership election could risk creating irreparable divisions within the party." He asked for party members to cooperate to overcome this critical situation together.

Ishiba had expressed his intention to step down, a day before the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) decides whether to hold a presidential contest. Regarding the early scheduling of a leadership election, a confirmation of intent regarding the early election demand was scheduled to be conducted on Monday at the LDP headquarters, targeting affiliated Diet members and prefectural chapters.

Following the Japanese ruling party's major defeat in July's House of Councilors election, Ishiba, also president of the LDP, solidified his intention to resign. Although Ishiba had previously expressed his desire to remain in office, he ultimately abandoned his continuation plans due to mounting pressure from within the party demanding his resignation.

Japanese Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi, during his meeting with Ishiba, urged the prime minister to avoid the procedure scheduled for Monday that would survey party Diet members regarding moving up the leadership election. This was intended to prevent a party split, and it is believed that Koizumi conveyed the view that a voluntary resignation would be preferable.

Potential successors include the conservative Sanae Takaichi, who narrowly lost to Ishiba in last year’s LDP run-off election, and Shinjiro Koizumi, the current farming minister whose family had long been involved in Japanese politics. “Koizumi and Takaichi are seen as the most likely candidates. While Koizumi is not expected to bring major changes, Takaichi’s stance on expansionary fiscal policy and her cautious approach to interest rate hikes could draw scrutiny from financial markets,” said Kazutaka Maeda, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute. Five people announced their intention to run: Agriculture Minister Koizumi Shinjiro, former Economic Security Minister Kobayashi Takayuki, former Economic Security Minister Takaichi Sanae, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa, and the party's former Secretary-General, Motegi Toshimitsu. Kono Taro, a former defense, foreign, and digital minister known for his reform-minded style, Kono had unsuccessfully run for LDP leadership in the past but decided to sit out this time. The race to lead Japan's main ruling Liberal Democratic Party officially kicked off 22 September 2025 as five lawmakers filed their candidacy papers in the hopes of succeeding Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru.

• Hayashi Yoshimasa, Japan's top government spokesperson, announced 18 September 2025 he will run in the election to choose who will succeed Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said that he has served as the Chief Cabinet Secretary -- first under former Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, and then under Prime Minister Ishiba -- and he hoped to build on this experience and add something new. As Chief Cabinet Secretary under both Ishiba and his predecessor Fumio Kishida, he has held a variety of key cabinet roles and is considered a moderate. Hayashi Yoshimasa said: "I woke up again today feeling very refreshed. With less than two weeks to campaign, I'm determined to fight to the end while clearly presenting policies. I will also focus on expanding my circle of allies."
• Kobayashi Takayuki : Former Economic Security Minister Kobayashi Takayuki officially announced his candidacy on 16 September 2025 The former economic security minister was the first to announce his candidacy in the 2024 LDP presidential election. He said, despite promising a major reset, the party still seems old. He said the LDP needs a generational shift, driven by the youth. Kobayashi said: "I'm determined to build a strong economy. I will put forward policies representing the will of the working population. Even though other candidates have been politicians for longer, I will not be intimidated and will challenge them for the future of our country."
• Koizumi Shinjiro : The son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, he is the current Agriculture Minister and is popular among the general public. His relative youth and fresh appeal are considered assets for the LDP. Koizumi Shinjiro said: "The LDP is currently in a truly dire situation. As the leadership election begins today, I am determined to carefully and sincerely fight through to the very end, alongside my colleagues."
• Motegi Toshimitsu, Former LDP Secretary-General, said: "We can revitalize Japan and the LDP in the next two years. And we can pass the baton to the next generation. I am determined to pave the way toward those goals."
• Takaichi Sanae announced 18 September 2025 her intention to run for the presidency of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party. An ultra-conservative LDP veteran, she is known for her hawkish stance and previously lost to Ishiba in the 2024 LDP leadership runoff. Financial markets are particularly interested in her stance on fiscal policy and interest rates. Takaichi Sanae said: "My determination for this election is absolute. I want to turn Japan into a nation that has a robust economy and stands strong. By returning to our founding spirit, I intend to rebuild the LDP into a party that sincerely listens to the people and translates their voices into real policies."

The candidates are after the 590 votes up for grabs. The ballots are split evenly, with LDP Diet members casting 295, and rank-and-file members casting the others. If no one secures more than half of the votes, there will be a runoff between the two top candidates. In that case, 342 votes will be on offer. LDP lawmakers would cast the most, with 295. The party's local chapters would submit the other 47. Becoming party leader does not guarantee becoming prime minister. The Lower and Upper Houses of the Diet make that decision. The LDP and its coalition partner Komeito lost their majorities in the last two national elections. There are two ways of holding a leadership election in the Liberal Democratic Party. The first method is written in the party's rules for leadership elections. It includes votes cast by Diet members and rank-and-file members. More than a million party members across the country cast their ballots in last year's leadership election. If the first method is adopted, there will be a total of 590 votes -- 295 for Diet members and 295 for rank-and-file members. The election period will last at least 12 days.

The second option is for a particularly urgent situation, such as the resignation of the party president while in office. This is considered to be a "simplified" election because rank-and-file members don't take part in it. In this situation, two groups vote at the joint plenary meeting of party members of both houses of the Diet instead of holding a party convention. One group is made up entirely of the LDP's Diet members. They number 295. The other consists of three representatives from each of the 47 prefectural chapters. They number 141. Together, the groups add up to 436 votes.

The most recent "simplified" presidential election was held in 2020, when Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide was elected after Prime Minister Abe Shinzo resigned. There were calls for party members' voices to be widely reflected. Rank-and-file members at 44 prefectural branches voted in preliminary elections.

The fractured nature of Japan's opposition parties means the next LDP leader will most likely become the next prime minister, despite the LDP not holding a majority in either house of the Diet.

There are two important points that will make this race very different from past ones and both have to do with the ruling coalition's minority status. First, the new leader must be able to bargain with the opposition. That's the only way they can have a stable government. Consider this: whoever takes over the LDP is not even guaranteed to become Japan's next prime minister. It is unlikely that opposition lawmakers would rally behind another person and elect them. But the fact that that's now a possibility shows how far the ruling coalition has slipped since Ishiba took power. That's why all five candidats explained how they plan to work with opposition parties. Some suggested welcoming other parties to join the LDP and Komeito's coalition, or even forging a new one. All of them stressed cooperation to get policies passed. The second key point is that the LDP wants someone who can win. Party members will focus on who is best suited to organizing a functional government, despite the LDP's weakened state. Ishiba oversaw two disappointing national elections in just under one year. The LDP cannot afford to let this happen again, so it needs someone who can bring supporters back. One way is to tackle rising prices, which was a huge issue leading into July's Upper House race. We're already hearing candidates pitch policies such as increasing real wages, and reducing income tax. Some even suggested ideas pushed by the opposition. Regaining trust will also be key: The LDP is also still dealing with fallout from political fundraising scandals that came to light in 2023, so candidates may also be pressed on how they intend to continue reforms to win back public trust.