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Ishiba Shigeru

Former Japanese Defense Minister Ishiba Shigeru won the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's leadership race 27 September 2024, as its 28th president. Ishiba is set to become Japan’s next prime minister when Japanese lawmakers convene on 01 October 2024 as Kishida Fumio 's successor, the 102nd prime minister. This was Shigeru Ishiba's fourth bid for the LDP leadership, defeating a record eight competitors, especially in the final round, defeating hard-line nationalist Sanae Takaichi. The new president's term is three years, ending in September 2027. Ishiba will begin finalizing senior party personnel arrangements and forming a new team.

Shigeru Ishiba is a prominent Japanese politician known for his expertise in defense and national security matters. He has been a member of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and has held various key positions, including Minister of Defense and Minister for Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries. Born on February 4, 1957, in Tottori Prefecture, Japan, Ishiba is recognized for his pragmatic approach to policy and is considered a defense expert within Japanese political circles. He has often been an advocate for revising Japan's pacifist constitution, particularly Article 9, which limits the country's ability to maintain a standing military.

Ishiba has also been a vocal critic within his own party and ran unsuccessfully for the leadership of the LDP multiple times. His more independent and outspoken views on security issues sometimes put him at odds with more mainstream factions of the party, including current and former Prime Ministers like Shinzo Abe. Despite not securing leadership roles in recent years, he continues to be an influential figure in discussions on Japan's defense strategy and constitutional reforms.

Ishiba, who had challenged five times and regarded this battle as his "last battle", finally realized his dream of becoming the president of the Liberal Democratic Party. Since the Liberal Democratic Party currently holds a majority of seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives, the new president is expected to be nominated as the new prime minister in the parliamentary prime minister nomination election held on October 1. The new cabinet is also expected to take office on the same day.

Shigeru Ishiba, once known as a pro-China person, will become Japan's prime minister. Japan's Taiwan-friendly stance remains unchanged, but China policy may be adjusted. Ishiba has held important posts in the party and the cabinet, including defense minister, agriculture, forestry and fisheries minister, and cabinet minister. He is about to take over Japan, the world's fourth largest economy, to fight against challenges such as rising prices and tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.

Japan will also face more security threats and war risks. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, North Korea's nuclear ambitions, and China's growing military threats. During the LDP presidential election, Shigeru Ishiba put forward his own views on diplomacy and security policies, including the establishment of an "Asian version of NATO."

Xie Wensheng, an expert on Sino-Japanese relations and the executive director of the Taiwan Oasis Educational Foundation, said that during the campaign, Ishiba repeatedly quoted Kishida Fumio's emphasis on "Ukraine today, East Asia tomorrow" and Shinzo Abe's "Taiwan's problems are Japan's problems" as a declaration of his future diplomatic and security line. His foreign policy should continue the consistent direction since Abe. He believes that Ishiba's diplomatic and security line basically still prioritizes the US-Japan alliance, and in terms of Japan's national position, he is sometimes even tougher than Shinzo Abe, especially in "advocating the revision of the US-Japan Status of Forces Agreement" and insisting that "Japan has complete collective self-defense rights." These can be reflected in the first violation of Japanese airspace by Chinese military aircraft in August this year, and the first voyage of a Chinese aircraft carrier in Japan's adjacent area on September 18, which Ishiba, who was campaigning at the time, made clear.

Ishiba wrote in his memoirs that conflating Russia's invasion of Ukraine with fears of a Chinese attack on Taiwan was based on emotion rather than a pragmatic assessment of the Chinese threat and its impact on Japan. But he is a staunch supporter of Taiwanese democracy and has proposed creating an "Asian NATO" to counter security threats from China and North Korea.

In his presidential election policy, Shigeru Ishiba stated the basic principle for amending the constitution as "realizing constitutional amendments proposed by the Diet during my term as prime minister." He advocated writing the Self-Defense Forces into Article 9 of the Constitution and establishing a new emergency clause. For many years, he has advocated deleting the second clause that stipulates "not maintaining combat capability" and positioning the Self-Defense Forces as a military. The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan held a constitutional amendment headquarters meeting on 02 November 2023 and approved the review of arguments for writing the Self-Defense Forces into the Constitution. The main plan is to write the Self-Defense Forces into the Constitution while maintaining the current Article 9, Paragraphs 1 and 2.

Yoshikawa Naoya, editorial committee member of the Asian Information Committee of Japanese media, said that Ishiba promised to amend the constitution, but the first bottleneck to achieving this goal is the House of Representatives election next year. He said that the Liberal Democratic Party had previously lost the support of many people due to the political donation scandal. If Ishiba's call for reform does not receive the support of voters, then the Liberal Democratic Party may not be able to achieve good results in the general election. In addition, the ruling Komeito Party and the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party have always strongly opposed constitutional amendments, so it is difficult to expect the Ishiba government to make major changes in constitutional amendments.

Yoshikawa Naoya believes that Ishiba is not a typical popular leader within the LDP, so it is difficult to predict to what extent he can play a leadership role on important issues and to what extent he can realize some of the ideals he has put forward. Cai Xixun, a professor at the master's program in Japanese political and economic studies at Tamkang University, believes that Ishiba Shigeru will not rush to make major changes to the constitution at the moment, but constitutional amendment is a basic principle of the Liberal Democratic Party, and no matter who is in power, they will push in this direction. Ishiba advocates an Asian version of NATO, and he will naturally actively promote constitutional amendment at the appropriate time in the future. He said: "The Asian version of NATO is a concept he advocates. But can the concept of Japan's right to self-defense be applied to the Asian version of NATO? This is where he must consider amending the constitution."

Xie Wensheng said: "In response to China's military threats, Shigeru Ishiba said that he would amend Article 84 of the Self-Defense Forces Act to clearly state the necessary measures that the Self-Defense Forces can take to counter it, such as implementing the use of "more than warning shots" to the extent of "dangerous shots." This is also a tougher and more concrete statement when facing China and Russia."

Hidetoshi Ishii, a Japanese political commentator who once ran for the House of Representatives of Fukuoka Prefecture, holds a different opinion. He believes that after Ishii takes office, the foreign policy followed by Shinzo Abe, Yoshihide Suga and Fumio Kishida for about 10 years may undergo a complete change, especially the continued harsh stance towards China. He told VOA: "Ishiba has been maintaining his specious idealistic stance, making seemingly correct but unrealistic remarks. The most important thing in Asia right now is to prevent China from invading Taiwan by force and to prevent 'Taiwan from happening'. To achieve this goal, Japan needs to formulate specific policies instead of advocating these useless idealisms."

Ishii Hidetoshi pointed out that the Asian version of NATO proposed by Ishiba only sounds fashionable, but the Southeast Asian countries are basically scattered and their attitudes towards China cannot move in a unified direction, so it is impossible to achieve. He said that what Japan should do most is to consolidate the iron triangle relationship with the United States and South Korea, and then develop specific policies for defense cooperation with Taiwan, so as to truly deter China.

In the past, Shigeru Ishiba had advocated that China was not a threat and was considered to be pro-China, but in recent years he has visited Taiwan many times. In 2022, he visited then-President Tsai Ing-wen and said that he was willing to inherit Abe's legacy and continue to promote the Japan-Taiwan partnership. In August 2024, he visited Taiwan again to visit President Lai Ching-te, expressing his concern for defense and security cooperation between Taiwan and Japan and responding to China's rising regional threats.

Tsai Hsi-hsien, professor of the master's program in Japanese political and economic studies at Tamkang University, believes that Ishiba Shigeru's position on the Taiwan issue is already very clear. He told VOA: "Shigeru Ishiba announced his candidacy during his visit to Taiwan on August 14. He mentioned Taiwan repeatedly during the campaign, saying that Taiwan responded very quickly when something happened, and also talked about the issue of evacuating overseas Chinese. In addition, he was Japan's defense minister, and he has always made judgments from a very clear perspective on security. I believe that his China policy will not compromise on security."

Japanese political commentator Hidetoshi Ishii, who once ran for a member of the House of Representatives in Fukuoka Prefecture, is worried that Ishiba, who claims to be a liberal, may make China view Japan as weaker. “People must keep a close eye on Ishiba to make sure he does not change the China policy followed by Abe, Suga and Kishida just to draw new attention,” Ishii said. He pointed out that regarding Japan's assessment of the level of events if China invades Taiwan by force, Ishiba's statement that "it is at least a situation of major impact" is really an underestimation of its severity. It is likely that the Kishida government's revised National Security Strategy and the gradually strengthened defense capabilities will fall short.

Xie Wensheng, executive director of the Taiwan Oasis Culture and Education Foundation, believes that what Ishiba said about "at least a significant impact on the situation" can actually be interpreted as there is still an option to escalate. He said: "In addition, he also added that if it is to be identified as a 'survival crisis situation', it is almost a defensive deployment, and it is almost a situation where Chinese missiles are about to fly towards Japan."

Naoya Yoshikawa, a member of the editorial committee of Asian Information of Japanese media in Tokyo, believes that the relationship between Japan and Taiwan will not change significantly just because Ishiba takes office. He told VOA that it has become a consensus across Japan to cooperate with the United States on the Taiwan issue, make emergency preparations, and fight against China's growing hegemonism. Although Ishiba will try to avoid taking a line that will anger China, resisting China and protecting Taiwan is already the political correctness of the Liberal Democratic Party, and it will not change no matter who becomes prime minister.

Yoshikawa Naoya pointed out that Ishiba is facing a series of domestic problems including political reform, and there will not be major revisions to foreign policy. What can be expected is whether there will be some changes in constitutional amendment.

China urged Japan to maintain a "healthy and stable" relationship with Beijing. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told reporters that the "sustained, sound and steady" development of China-Japan relations is in both countries’ interests, characterizing the path as "the only right choice." China, he said, hopes Japan will "have an objective and right perception of China, take an active and rational China policy, take concrete efforts to comprehensively advance the strategic relationship of mutual benefit, and work with China to promote the sustained, sound and steady development" of bilateral relations. Beijing’s remarks come amid rising tension between China and Japan. China has increased the frequency of its military activities in waters and airspace near Japan in recent weeks, sailing its aircraft carrier Liaoning through the "contiguous zone" near Japan’s westernmost island of Yonaguni on September 18 and conducting large-scale military exercises near the Sea of Japan.

Analysts say the Chinese Foreign Ministry statement shows Beijing remains cautious about Ishiba’s stance on relations with China. "Beijing is very cautious and concerned about Ishiba’s stance because he has been very assertive and hardline about Japan’s security policy," Kyoko Hatakeyama, an international relations professor at the University of Niigata Prefecture, said in a phone interview with VOA. Before the leadership election, Ishiba proposed the creation of an "Asian NATO," which he said could pave the way for a nuclear-sharing arrangement among like-minded countries or a return of U.S. nuclear tactical weapons to the Indo-Pacific region.

During a live debate held by Japan’s Fuji News Network on September 22, Ishiba said it is time to allow Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to fire warning shots at foreign forces intruding Japan’s territorial airspaces and waters. Hatakeyama said Ishiba would likely continue to deepen Japan’s defense and security relationship with like-minded democracies, including the United States, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines.

Unlike outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, she said, Ishiba wants Japan to have more autonomy in shaping its security policies. "He thinks it’s not good for Japan to follow Washington’s lead and he believes Japan should become more independent in working with other like-minded countries in the region," Hatakeyama told VOA.

Some Chinese analysts say Beijing should keep an eye on Ishiba’s policies toward China, based on his previous remarks and proposals. "China needs to stay alert to Ishiba as he reportedly had called for creation of an 'Asian NATO' by combining the U.S.-Japan alliance and U.S.-South Korea alliance," Da Zhigang, director of the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies at China’s Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, told China’s state-run tabloid Global Times.

Xiang Haoyu, a research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, told Global Times he expects Japan to keep using "the Taiwan question" and its alignment with the U.S. to "contain China." While Ishiba will likely uphold Japan’s current defense and security policies, some experts say he may also seek to adjust Tokyo’s overall policies toward China. "In his recently released book, Ishiba said some members of the Japanese government play up the idea of the China threat and the need for more military without really explaining them to the Japanese people," Jeffrey Hall, an expert on Japan studies at Kanda University of International Studies.

He said while Ishiba has highlighted the need for Japan to maintain deterrence against China, the incoming Japanese prime minister will try to put less emphasis on threats by China to help Japan avoid "a security dilemma." "He has many big ideas about it, but in the next year, he will continue foreign policy as it was under Kishida," Hall told VOA in a video interview.

While Ishiba may seek to adjust Japan’s policies toward China, Hall said he will also continue Tokyo’s approach of maintaining close relations with Taiwan, as it did under Kishida and deceased former prime minister Shinzo Abe. "Ishiba’s visit to Taiwan in August was strategically timed because he wanted to show conservatives in Japan that he would stand with Taiwan if he becomes prime minister," he told VOA, adding that Ishiba will not sacrifice commitment to Taiwan for the sake of friendlier relations with China.

Despite the heightened tension between Japan and China, caused mainly by Beijing’s military actions and the death of a 10-year-old Japanese boy in the Chinese city of Shenzhen, Hatakeyama said Tokyo and Beijing will both try to play a balancing act in managing bilateral relations in the near future. "China has recently agreed to gradually resume imports of Japanese seafood and Japan’s Cabinet Office didn’t declare the Japanese warship’s passage through the Taiwan Strait, which signals that Tokyo and Beijing both want to prevent bilateral tensions from further escalating," she told VOA.

Ishiba Shigeru appeared on course to be re-elected during a special Diet session convened on 11 November 2024, following last month's Lower House election. Members of both chambers of the Diet will be deciding on the next prime minister. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, lost their Lower House majority in the general election. As a consequence, it is expected to go to a runoff between LDP President Ishiba and the president of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Noda Yoshihiko. It would be the first runoff in the Lower House in 30 years.

Ishiba would likely emerge victorious, as opposition parties have failed to concentrate their support behind one candidate. Ishiba is expected to decide the lineup of his new Cabinet as soon as he is re-elected. He planned to appoint Suzuki Keisuke as justice minister, and Eto Taku as agriculture minister. The incumbent ministers lost their seats in last month's election. Ishiba was considering tapping Komeito lawmaker Nakano Hiromasa to succeed outgoing land minister Saito Tetsuo, who became the chief representative of Komeito. Ishiba is expected to reappoint other Cabinet ministers.

The Emperor will ceremonially endorse Ishiba and his chosen Cabinet at the Imperial Palace later in the day. After the ceremony, Ishiba is expected to launch his new Cabinet and hold a news conference to explain his future policies. Meanwhile, Ishiba plans to hold separate talks with CDP's Noda and the president of the Democratic Party for the People, Tamaki Yuichiro, on Monday, following a meeting with the representative of the Japan Innovation Party, Baba Nobuyuki. Ishiba intends to ask for their cooperation to implement various policies, including political reforms.