Iraq Election 2021 - Parliament
On Sunday, October 10, Iraqi voters had the opportunity to vote for the Council of Representatives (CoR) in 83 electoral constituencies in 18 governorates. All 329 seats in the CoR will be up for election. The emergence of large grassroots protests (often called tishreen) throughout the south of Iraq in October 2019 created a chain reaction of political events, leading the CoR to fundamentally change the parliamentary electoral system. After the elections, newly elected CoR members will be responsible for electing the president within 30 days from their first convening. In the face of recent democratic backsliding and unrest related to rising violence, corruption and inequality, the elections offered an opportunity to build a stronger and more credible election process. The elections were also a test of Iraq’s democratic institutions.
The Council of Representatives (CoR) is the main elected body of Iraq. It comprises 329 members elected to four-year terms, with two sessions held each year. The CoR passes federal laws, oversees the executive branch of government, ratifies treaties and approves the nominations of certain officials. It also elects the Iraqi president, who then selects a prime minister from the majority coalition in the CoR. Subsequent to the elections, newly elected CoR members will be responsible for electing the president within 30 days from their first convening.
In 2020, the previously used open list proportional representation system was replaced by the single non-transferable vote (SNTV) system. SNTV is a plurality electoral system based on multi-seat electoral constituencies. Each voter casts one vote for one candidate, and the candidates who receive the most votes win seats. However, the Elections Law stipulates that seats will be allocated according to the first-past-the-post system. This means that voters will vote for a candidate of their choice, and the candidate who receives the most votes wins. The electoral system will use the 83 districts as constituencies. Each district is one electoral constituency and is allotted three to five seats, proportional to its estimated population. Each governorate has been divided into several constituencies based on the number of women who should be elected from that governorate. According to the Constitution of Iraq, 25 percent of all seats in the Council of Representatives (CoR) are reserved for women. Furthermore, the Elections Law stipulates that at least one seat in each of the 83 constituencies is set aside for female candidates.
Iraq will hold its next parliamentary elections nearly a year early, the premier announced 02 August 2020, as he sought to make good on promises he offered when he came to power. “June 6, 2021, has been fixed as the date for the next legislative elections,” said Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, who took the reins in May after months of protests forced his predecessor to resign. “Everything will be done to protect and ensure the success of these polls,” Kadhimi said in a televised speech. Elections in Iraq are sometimes marred by violence and often by fraud. The next parliamentary elections had originally been due to take place in May 2022.
Voters abandoned major political parties in favor of Shiite leader and former militia chief Moqtada Sadr, who allied with communists on an anti-corruption platform. Months of protests began in October 2019, with thousands taking to the streets of Baghdad and across the south. Demonstrators demanded that the political system be dismantled, pointing to endemic corruption and what many see as the malign influence of sectarian interests.
Kadhimi was nominated in April, months after Adel Abdul Mahdi stepped down — the first time a premier has resigned before the end of his term since the US-led invasion of 2003. Kadhimi’s government said a total of 560 people had died in protests since October. Nearly all were demonstrators killed at the hands of the security forces, according to an adviser to the premier.
Abdul Mahdi’s government proposed to parliament a new electoral law that was quickly passed late last year. But the section detailing voting procedures and constituency boundaries has not been finalized, according to diplomats and experts. It was not clear what role Iraq’s election commission — regularly accused of bias — would have in organizing the polls. The UN mission in Iraq welcomed Kadhimi’s announcement. “Early elections fulfil a key popular demand on the road to greater stability and democracy in Iraq,” it said in a statement.
“Properly conducted credible, free, fair and inclusive elections can re-energize the political system and build public confidence, giving the people a voice and realizing their aspirations for better representation,” said the Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Iraq, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert.
“It is the responsibility of the government, parliament, political parties and other stakeholders to jointly ensure free, fair and credible elections in a conducive environment that places the interests of the country above all other considerations,” Ms. Hennis-Plasschaert said.
“We are confident that all political forces wish to see Iraq emerge from its crises and thrive. As always, these elections will be Iraqi-led and Iraqi-owned. The United Nations will continue to provide all the advice and technical support requested by the government and the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC), in line with its mandate.”
The Iraqi prime minister's office, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, on 01 December 2020 set the early elections' date, 06 June 2021. A statement issued by Al-Kazemi's office stated its emphasis on the need to work for the success of early elections in Iraq. Al-Kazemi visited the headquarters of the Independent High Electoral Commission. The Commission briefed him on the preparations being made to secure the parliamentary elections' holding on the scheduled date. He also followed the course of the Commission's efforts to seek to overcome all obstacles that may face the electoral process and directed the relevant government agencies to overcome these obstacles as far as the matter related to them.
He stressed the importance of the House of Representatives approving the election financing law to allow sufficient time for the Commission to complete the technical and executive aspects and make it successful. He also stressed the importance of the procedures accompanying the electoral process conforming to the law, to ensure its success and to preserve its integrity, and for the upcoming electoral process to be a true expression of the will of the Iraqi people and their free choices.
The Election Commission announced that it had made great strides in the biometric voter registration and distribution of the biometric voter card. A statement by the Commission stated that it "is working hard to secure the requirements of the voter register update process," indicating that "the Board of Commissioners approved the system of accreditation of local and international election observers, and the system of agents of candidates, parties, alliances, and campaigns." The statement added that "the development and sustainability of the democratic process in Iraq require the Election Commission to make exceptional efforts to double, to hold early parliamentary elections."
Prime Minister al-Kadhimi had originally set this year’s general election for June, nearly a year ahead of schedule, in response to widespread protests in 2019. But by January 2021 authorities were in talks over rescheduling them to October, to give electoral authorities more time to register voters and new parties.
The names of 3,523 candidates (963 female and 2,560 male) were submitted to the Justice and Accountability Commission, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Interior for verification of their qualifications before the e Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) certified the final list. The vetting process concluded on 10 April 2021 with a total of 3,249 candidates (including 951, or approximately 29 percent, women) approved to run in the elections. Of those, 789 candidates will run as individuals, 1,501 will run as candidates within political parties and 959 will run within coalitions.
The fundamental principles of the electoral campaign are equality among all candidates, neutrality of the electoral administration and transparency of the campaign. Campaigning cannot occur and campaign paraphernalia cannot be displayed in government buildings or at religious sites or polling locations. Laws on campaigning also prohibit certain content, such as government logos and the images of religious figures who are not running as candidates.
Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr announced 15 July 2021 he would not take part in Iraq’s upcoming election in October, saying he was withdrawing his support from the current government and the one that will be elected to replace it. One of the most influential figures in Iraq, al-Sadr led a political bloc that emerged as the biggest in the 2018 parliamentary election, with 54 seats in the 329-seat legislature. The effect of al-Sadr’s announcement was difficult to assess immediately. He has withdrawn from front-line politics before for years at a time, and has typically wielded his power without holding elected office. Even if he does not run, candidates loyal to him could stand in the election, allowing him to retain his influence. The boycott could be a blow to election plans by Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who had called the early vote in response to demands by pro-democracy activists.
Moqtada al-Sadr said 27 August 2021 that he and his supporters would take part in Iraq’s October general election, reversing a decision last month to stay out. Al-Sadr’s bloc is part of a coalition that holds the most seats in parliament now, and is likely to be one of the frontrunners in the vote. Al-Sadr said in a televised address that the about-face came after a number of political leaders, whom he did not identify, had written to him with a “charter for reform” to rid Iraq of corruption and mismanagement.
Al-Sadr, whose political manoeuvres have at times puzzled observers, had said in February 2021 he backed early elections overseen by the United Nations. He commands a loyal following of millions of Iraqis, is one of the most powerful political leaders in Iraq and has grown his influence over state institutions in recent years.
A statement from Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani, the spiritual leader of Iraqi Shia and the group’s most influential Muslim scholar, is likely to be the defining factor in deciding whether to vote, even if they do not believe real change could be attained from the ballot box. “Although it is not without some shortcomings, it remains the best way to achieve a peaceful future and avoids the risk of falling into chaos and political obstruction,” al-Sistani’s statement reads. The voter turnout might be slightly higher than that of 2018, when it dipped below 50 percent, especially after al-Sistani’s statement.
Many protesters continued to argue that a lack of systematic reform away from the largely inept and corrupt system means there is little hope for any real change to address the issues that are to this day still paralysing Iraq – a country that had only recently emerged out from four decades of violence and conflict.
Despite having advocated for electoral reforms and an early election, many of these protesters are now calling for a boycott of the vote, preluding a potential low voter turnout. Many supporting the boycott have pointed to an electoral environment in which activists have been subject to targeted assassination campaigns, mainly attributed to pro-Iranian militia groups, and the unwillingness of the establishment to give up its power as their motivations for disengagement. Electoral boycotts aimed at de-legitimising the government, however, are not new in Iraq. There have been calls to avoid previous elections, which consequently had little effect in changing the endemic corruption among the governing elite.
Having gone through years of conflict and inadequate governance, many Iraqis have lost hope for the betterment of the country through the actions of the governing class. For many people who decided not to vote, however, the dominant factor is the sense of apathy resulting from years of a shuffling game within the establishment that yielded nominal positive changes. The same power groups that benefitted from the post-2003 muhasasa system, the ethno-sectarian power-sharing arrangement that has been a defining feature of Iraqi politics, will likely come out of the elections triumphant. The new laws still favor those with nationwide organisation with money and network. The big old parties that were responsible for creating the system in 2005 will continue to dominate the system.
An alliance of Iraqi candidates representing Shiite militias supported by neighboring Iran emerged as the biggest loser in the country’s national election. The Fatah Alliance, led by paramilitary leader Hadi al-Ameri, is comprised of parties and affiliated with the Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella group of mostly pro-Iran Shiite militias. The results also showed the bloc of Iraq’s populist Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr maintaining the most seats in parliament, leading in several of Iraq’s 18 provinces, including the capital Baghdad. Al-Sadr, the maverick leader remembered for leading an insurgency against U.S. forces after the 2003 invasion, appeared to have increased his movement’s seats in the 329-member parliament from 54 in 2018 to more than 70.
Voter turnout was 41%, a record low in the post-Saddam Hussein era signaling widespread distrust of the country’s leaders and the vote for a new parliament. That’s down from 44% in the 2018 elections, which was an all-time low. There was a marked reluctance among young Iraqis — the country’s largest demographic — to get out and vote. Many expressed views that the system is immune to reform and that the election would only bring back the same faces and parties responsible for the corruption and mismanagement that has plagued Iraq for decades.
The Iraqi Supreme Court on 27 December 2021 upheld the results of the country's parliamentary election, in effect ratifying a win for the hardline Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr. Al Sadr's nationalist party claimed a huge 35 percent increase in seats from its 2018 position, becoming the largest party in the parliament. Al Sadr once enjoyed backing from Iran and was a fierce enemy of the United States, but now opposes all foreign interference in Iraq. He also hinted at increasing representation of the country's Kurdish and Sunni minorities.
The next Iraqi government will be set by how Sadr and Nouri Maliki, State of Law Alliance leader, agree or disagree with each other. The power struggle between the two Shia leaders, Sadr and Maliki, have shaped the country’s government formation more than other factors. When Maliki was prime minister, he conducted security operations in Baghdad’s Sadr City against Sadr supporters, and ever since the two leaders have been at odds with each other.
Baghdad’s best government scenario is a majority government, comprising of Sadr, Mohammed al Halbousi, the leader of the Sunni bloc Taqaddum, and Masoud Barzani, the head of Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). With Sadr, Halbousi and Barzani leading each bloc, they have significantly increased their share of seats in the parliament, according to initial results. But they are still short of a majority and need the support of other winning candidates in order to form Iraq’s next government.
After a government is formed in Iraq, ministries and other state institutions are usually distributed to different parties according to their own political interests. There is no party which prioritises national interests. In Iraqi politics, said analyst Hamzeh Hadad, "everyone knows how to share the pie" but "no one knows how to be in the opposition".
Iraq's parliament on 07 February 2022 indefinitely postponed a scheduled vote for the republic's president after most major political blocs boycotted the session. The largest parliamentary bloc to emerge from the vote, led by powerful Shiite Muslim cleric Moqtada Sadr and holding 73 seats, was first to announce a boycott, on 05 February 2022. It was followed on 06 February 2022 by the 51-member Sovereignty Coalition led by a Sadr ally, parliamentary Speaker Mohammed al-Halbussi. The 31-seat Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) then announced it would also stay away, in order to "continue consultations and dialogue between political blocs". Another key bloc, the Cooperation Framework grouping several Shiite parties, also said the session should not take place, citing the recent political turmoil.
The sweeping no-show deepened a political crisis in the war-scarred country which, almost four months after a general election, still hadn't chosen a new prime minister. The assembly vote had been set for noon for the head of state -- a post with a four-year mandate held by convention by a member of Iraq's Kurdish minority, and currently occupied by Barham Saleh. But a series of boycott calls had made it highly unlikely the 329-seat parliament in Baghdad's high-security Green Zone would be able to clinch the necessary two-thirds quorum.
A new parliamentary bloc led by Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Sadrist Movement announced on 23 March 2022 the nomination of Rebar Ahmed Khalid and Jaafar al-Sadr for the posts of president and prime minister respectively. The tripartite bloc Saving Homeland, which also includes Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the al-Siyada Alliance, seeks "the formation of a national majority government and pledges to complete the reform process through a clear and transparent government program without external interference," Hassan al-Adhari, head of the Sadrist Parliamentary Bloc, told a press conference with the attendance of Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi.
The nascent coalition came amid a political row among Shiite parties, as al-Sadr's pro-Iranian rivals want to form a consensus government to include all political blocs, as was the situation in the successive governments after 2003. The Iraqi parliament set March 26 as the date for a new parliament session to elect the president.
Iraqi lawmakers failed again on 26 March to elect a new president for the country due to a lack of quorum in parliament, keeping the country mired in political paralysis. Parliament had issued a final list of 40 candidates for the post, a largely ceremonial role that by convention is reserved for a member of Iraq's Kurdish minority. The contest pits Barham Saleh, the incumbent and member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, against Rebar Ahmed of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the PUK's rival. The candidate who wins the largest number of votes must secure a two-thirds majority in the second round of votes in parliament to win the presidency. The postponement exacerbates Iraq's political problems because it is the task of the president to formally name a prime minister, who must be backed by an absolute majority in parliament. With the support of Sunni and Kurdish parties, Sadr wants the post of prime minister to go to his cousin Jaafar Sadr, Iraq's ambassador to Britain, once the question of the four-year presidency has been settled.
Although he emerged as a winner, al-Sadr was locked in a power struggle with internal Shia rivals backed by Iran, and was unable to cobble together a coalition that could form a majority government. Iraq was plunged deeper into political crises on June 12 when 73 legislators from al-Sadr’s bloc, then the biggest in parliament, quit en masse in a bid to break a logjam over the establishment of a new government. Following the mass resignation, the seats defaulted to candidates with the second highest number of votes during October’s polls. It made al-Sadr’s opponents from the so-called Coordination Framework, a coalition led by Iran-backed Shia parties and their allies, the majority with about 122 seats. It puts al-Sadr out of parliament for the first time since 2005, and allows pro-Iranian factions to determine the makeup of the next government. Iraq’s parliament swore in dozens of new legislators on 23 June 2022, replacing 73 who were loyal to powerful Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr and strengthening the power of rival Iran-backed Shia factions in the assembly.
This was a smart move, as al-Sadr’s decision put him in a win-win situation and the Coordination in a tight spot. The latter needed another government appealing to everyone, especially al-Moqtada, as he threatened massive protests unless his vision of how the government should be made up was met. Moreover, the current interim government led by Moustafa al-Kazimi is close to al-Moqtada. This means he gets to keep his influence in government anyway.
“I think Mr. al-Sadr got out of the government and the political opposition to join the popular opposition, which is stronger. He gave himself a margin of freedom after being criticised for criticising the government while being a part of it”, said Najm Al-Qassab, an Iraqi political analyst and commentator. “He is the only political leader in Iraq capable of moving his base at any time”, he added. In fact, after he threatened to call for protests after Friday prayers on July 15, several pro-Sadr protests were recorded in the country.
This manoeuvre effectively put the country in political paralysis. Fractures run deep in the political fabric of Iraq. The Iraqi Shia divide has been detrimental to the country’s politics for years, and the recordings are just a symptom of that. Many ask if the timing of these recordings is meant to halt the political process. This question itself misses the point, as the political process has been halted since the 2021 elections and no new government has yet been formed.
In Iraq, the squabbling factions seem to be simply fighting for power rather than acting to change the economic or political status quo. In fact, after nine months of political deadlock, the Iraqi parliament is nowhere near naming a new government and the current interim government has not employed any solutions for the country's economic problems. “The people named on the list leaked by the government to replace Kazimi as prime minister would be difficult to get elected by the MPs. The Coordination can form a government, as it has the majority in Parliament. The continuation of said government is a whole different story, as no government can continue without al-Sadr's support”, said Qassab.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
