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Saudi-Iran Relations

Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed on 10 March 2023 to resume diplomatic ties that have been severed for years, following Beijing-hosted talks which went on for four days. The two countries plan to reopen their respective embassies in Tehran and Riyadh within two months, they said in a joint statement. They also vowed to respect countries' "sovereignty and not interfere in internal affairs." "As a result of the talks, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to resume diplomatic relations and re-open embassies...within two months," Iranian news agency IRNA reported.

Riyadh and Tehran also agreed to activate a 2001 security cooperation agreement, as well as a general economy, trade and investment agreement signed in 1998, according to the joint statement. Both countries thanked China for hosting and sponsoring the round of talks. They also thanked Middle Eastern neighbors Iraq and Oman for hosting previous rounds in 2021 and 2022.

The trilateral statement significantly mentioned the 2001 security agreement and the broader 1998 cooperation agreement that Iran and Saudi Arabia had reached, a major breakthrough at the time after diplomatic ties were cut in the 1980s following the Iranian revolution. By mentioning these agreements, it seemed like both sides were trying to recapture the spirit of cooperation and collaboration. Those agreements entailed a lot of economic, security, political cooperation and high-level diplomatic contact.

Iran and Saudi Arabia had fought proxy wars in the region for decades, affecting Syria, Iraq Lebanon and Yemen. While the now normalised relations between the two were not going to automatically solve their vast geopolitical differences, there was now an opportunity for increased and sustained dialogue that could help bridge some of these differences. Iran’s relations with Saudi Arabia were pretty good from 1997 until 2005-06. There was potentially a willingness, it seemed, to go back to that.

In an advanced step in the new relationship between Riyadh and Tehran, Bloomberg revealed 30 November 2023 the details of an offer made by Saudi Arabia to Iran, which is based on a two-pronged equation, for the latter to prevent its regional agents from expanding the ongoing conflict in Gaza in exchange for obtaining economic and commercial investments. According to the agency, Saudi Arabia presented its proposal directly, as well as through multiple channels, and the context of the report published on Wednesday indicated that the policy followed by Riyadh does not seem limited to the current circumstance (i.e. the war in Gaza) as much as it depends on pushing Tehran to restrict the rein of its agents in the region at a stage. Also suffix.

Comments are rarely issued on such information, yet indicators lead to its “realism,” according to what observers from Riyadh and Tehran said who spoke to the “Al-Hurra” website, and explained that Saudi Arabia is already pursuing a policy based on incentives to deter Iran’s agents in exchange for the latter obtaining economic investments that “may Building bridges to stronger relationships.”

The Iranian President, Ibrahim Raisi, made a visit to Saudi Arabia in mid-November 2023, during which he attended the summit on Gaza in Riyadh.

After Bloomberg revealed the details of the Saudi offer, Iranian media reported that defense officials from Saudi Arabia and Iran discussed military cooperation “in the latest sign that the war between Israel and Hamas is bringing the two former adversaries closer together,” according to the agency. The Iranian Students News Agency said that Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman informed the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, that he “welcomes the increase in the level of cooperation between the armed forces of the two countries.”

Tehran and Riyadh disagree on several defense issues, including the US military's presence in the Middle East, the civil war in Yemen, and Iran's support for armed groups hostile to Saudi interests throughout the region. After the war launched by HAMAS against Israel on 07 October 2023, communications between the two countries increased, leading to the meeting that brought together the Iranian President, Ibrahim Raisi, and the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, earlier this month.

Saudi political analyst, Mubarak Al-Ati, explains that “Saudi diplomacy, specifically with Iran, has already fallen within the policy of stimulation, in order to encourage relations to improve.” Al-Ati points out that the delegations that Riyadh and Tehran exchanged during the recent period were commercial and economic, and that the first Iranian delegation to arrive in the Kingdom was headed by the Minister of Economy, Ihsan Khandouzi.

He told Al-Hurra website: “This confirms that Saudi Arabia is interested in motivating Iran to place it on the path of a national state that is keen on its interests in the region.” Economic and investment cooperation in the capabilities of the two countries “will ensure a deepened relationship,” Al-Ati adds. He believes that "Iran will certainly be economically open to Saudi Arabia in the first place, in exchange for abandoning the militias that have harmed its economy."

Iranian political researcher, Saeed Sharoudi, agrees with the idea that “Saudi Arabia has money and is investing billions in several countries, and Iran wants these investments to come... not only in oil and gas, but in infrastructure.” In an interview with Al-Hurra website, he believes that “the Saudi vision and the proposal being discussed are considered positive,” and that “it will be a subject of study for Tehran, as it wants cooperation in all fields, and believes that differences can be resolved through constructive dialogue.”

Sharoudi points out, "We have passed the era of war between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, and there is a kind of calm and peace negotiations between Riyadh and Ansar Allah al-Houthi, with the support of Iran." In a broader context, he believes that "Iran believes that the factions it supports have become self-reliant, and there is no need for direct intervention to support them, whether in Yemen or Iraq."

The Houthis in Yemen had been at the forefront of the war in Gaza for more than three weeks after they launched ballistic missiles and drones, some of which reached the city of Eilat in southern Israel. Not only that, they hijacked a ship and threatened another, saying it was an Israeli businessman. Despite the above, political researcher Sharoudi believes that “Iran can give reassurances to Saudi Arabia that neither it nor its allies will take any step that will threaten the kingdom’s security, militarily or economically.”

If some kind of economic and trade cooperation begins between them and Saudi Arabia invests inside Iran, this will amount to “a great strengthening of the political relationship and keeping it away from any upcoming tensions,” according to the Tehran-based researcher. Regarding the “Saudi offer to Iran,” from the point of view of the Iranian researcher, Hamid Reza Azizi, “the proposal to invest and establish economic relations is something that already existed before the war in Gaza.”

Shortly after the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the Saudi Finance Minister stated, “We are interested in investing in Iran and concluding this economic cooperation.” Hamid Reza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), believes that “the Saudi side is realistic enough to know that on the one hand Iran does not have full influence over all these militias in the region, as some of them operate more or less independently to a certain extent.” "What, or at least in their tactical decisions." Therefore, it does not seem that Iran can control them, and “the Saudis know this,” according to what the researcher told the Al-Hurra website.

The Houthi issue essentially proved that Iran does not have full influence over them, and on the other hand, it is unlikely that Iran will replace its influence in other arenas, such as Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, for example, with economic issues.

Researcher Azizi gives an example by saying: “We must consider the case of the nuclear file, as Iran could have already reached an agreement with the United States if it wanted to abandon its nuclear program, its regional influence, and its missile program.” But Iran did not accept this from the United States because it “sees the file as a strategic advantage,” as the researcher explains. He continues: “When they do not abandon their regional and military programs, even in exchange for sanctions relief from the United States, what can the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia offer to Iran in order to persuade it to abandon its relations with the militias?”

As Bloomberg quoted a source it described as “from the Saudi side” who has direct knowledge of high-level communications, the Crown Prince’s focus is on stopping the escalation with Iran at the present time. He added that Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his aides expressed, in their meetings with Iranian officials, “Saudi concerns about Iran’s support for armed groups in the Arab world and also touched on the benefits of cooperation.”

The agency noted that, "Although it is not clear how seriously Tehran is dealing with Riyadh's initiative, the outbreak of a regional war has so far been avoided." It added that the Saudis and their Arab allies "still fear the possibility of this happening if Israel goes ahead with its military campaign aimed at eliminating Hamas."

Political analyst Mubarak Al Ati believes that “the international community is now monitoring the extent of the development of Saudi-Iranian relations,” and that “Saudi incentives to Tehran, if successful, will be a method approved by the international system.” Al-Ati considered that "distancing Iran from its militias in the region requires continuous and diligent work from the Kingdom, which is already aware that the dilapidated Iranian economy needs a real pause and openness in mutual investments."

Irani does not intend to open full relations with Saudi Arabia only, but with all Arab and Islamic countries. Iranian officials had tried to take advantage of the new atmosphere that arose in the wake of the 2023 war in Gaza, as an opportunity to get closer to neighboring countries, especially Arab countries such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, according to what the researcher, Reda Azizi, explains. He says: “Who could have imagined that the Iranian president would go to Saudi Arabia to meet not only with Mohammed bin Salman, but also with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi!”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahian also began making contacts every day after that with the foreign ministers of other Islamic countries and Arab countries to discuss the Gaza issue. It is clear that, with regard to Iran, as researcher Azizi explains, “there is an attempt to use the public atmosphere to support criticism directed at Israel in Palestine to get closer to Islamic countries, including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.”

But in the end, the above depends on many factors. Iran, for example, hopes that the war will stop the normalization process between Arab countries and Israel, especially between Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, according to the researcher’s assessment, “this will not happen,” and as soon as the war calms down, the two parties will once again enter into negotiations for a better understanding or some type of understanding.

On the other hand, the war in Gaza and the responses of Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen may have already raised the perception of threat in Arab countries regarding Iran in the region. The researcher continues: “Meaning that they feel the extent of their weakness in front of all these groups, and this may push them in the end towards closer cooperation with Israel,” stressing: “It is still too early to evaluate the actual effects of the war, and as I say: Iran is ready, but this does not necessarily mean that it is "It will establish closer relations with Saudi Arabia."

Analyst Al-Ati points out that “Saudi Arabia’s trend toward diplomacy to address its caliphate has become noticeable and is being recorded with all the countries with which it has negotiated.” He also believes that his country "has very large pressure tools, but it also realizes that Iran is concerned with the security of the region and the region, and that it will be the first to resort to blowing up the situation if the conflict expands, especially since America has warned it" more than once during the past weeks.