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Sweden - Climate

Swedes love to talk about Swedish weather. Spring, summer, fall and winter each have their own unique personalities, and the seasons vary a lot from north to south. And in a country with long coastlines and deep forests, every time of year is a new reason to spend time outdoors, year-round, whatever the weather.

Because of the warm Gulf Stream, the climate here can be much milder than might be expected. Spring, summer, fall and winter each have their own unique personalities. Spring runs from March/April to May, summer from June to August, fall from September to October/November and winter from November/December to March/February.

In a land as varied as Sweden, these seasons can be quite different depending on location. For simplicity’s sake, the country can be divided into three major regions: Götaland in the south, Svealand in the middle and Norrland in the north.

In Götaland, with the cities Gothenburg and Malmö, winters are shorter and milder, while daytime summer temperatures normally range from 15 to 25 degrees Celsius. The air is relatively humid here, making warm days feel warmer and cold days colder. However, even in winter months, snow is rare near any southern coast.

Stretching from Stockholm in the east to southern Norway in the west, Svealand has a climate that is normally a few degrees cooler than that of Götaland. Average temperatures are just below zero in January, and snowfall is more common – especially in the northwest, where a number of popular ski resorts are located.

Although relatively few people live here, Norrland has the climate many people falsely associate with all of Sweden. Winters here are long, cold and dry, with sub-zero temperatures lasting several months. There is also much more snow here. Summers may be short, but temperatures are often a comfortable 15 degrees, with occasional peaks of up to 30 degrees.

Although the Swedish winters seem cold and dark, the long summer days are well worth the wait. In most of the country, people stay outdoors well into the night, chatting in parks and outdoor cafés as the sun barely dips below the horizon. As far south as Malmö, summer daylight outlasts the average person’s waking hours. And in the far north, the sun never sets for weeks at a time.

Winter, as might be expected, is dark and cold across most of the country. In midwinter there’s no daylight at all north of the Arctic Circle. Instead you might be lucky enough to experience the sky lit up by northern lights. Though there will be more daylight hours the further south you go, this is the time of year when people either stay indoors or gear up for winter sports. Family and friends come over for dinner, living rooms are lit by candlelight and most people look forward to holidays like Lucia, Christmas and winter breaks with their children.

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that global warming so far has been 0.7 degrees over the last 100 years. The rate of warming in the last 50 years has been almost double that in the whole 100-year period, and it is very likely that this has been largely caused by human activities. The mean global temperature will in all probability rise by a further 1.8-4.0 degrees by the end of the century compared with 1990. If sharp reductions in global emissions are made, it will be possible for temperature increases to be limited in the longer term. Some continued warming is, however, unavoidable.

Temperature will rise more in Sweden and Scandinavia than the global mean. The model scenarios used as a base point to average temperature in Sweden rising by 3-5 degrees by the 2080s in comparison with the period 1960-1990. Winter temperature may increase by 7 degrees in northern Sweden. The climate in the Mälardalen valley will resemble the climate in northern France today.

Precipitation patterns will also change. Precipitation will increase in most of the country during the autumn, winter and spring. In summer-time the climate will be warmer and drier, particularly in southern Sweden. Sea levels are expected to rise by 0.2-0.6 meters globally over the next hundred years, then continue to rise for many hundreds of years. No melting of the ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica is included in these calculations. Sea levels are expected to rise by up to 0.2 meters in seas adjoining Sweden.

The number of days of heavy precipitation will increase during the winter, spring and autumn in most parts of the country. There will be significant increases in the most intensive rains. Runoff will increase in most parts of the country, mostly in the west. High flows with a return period averaging 100 years, known as 100-year flow, will increase sharply. The increased risk of floods affects building construction, roads and railways in particular. Other infrastructure, industry and agriculture may also be at risk. There is a risk of the supply of drinking water being disrupted by the contamination of water sources or pipe fractures.

Low-pressure movements and winds are of great significance to sea levels and the risk of flooding and erosion along the coasts. With increased dominance of westerly winds, the maximum high-water levels in the Baltic Sea will rise substantially.

The increase in water inflow, particularly in the northern parts of the country, will take place gradually. This creates very favorable conditions for increased hydropower production. Calculations indicate a possible increase in hydropower potential averaging 15-20 percent by the end of the 21st century.