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Poland - World War III.2

Polish President Andrzej Duda said 21 September 2023 that Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's comments about no longer supplying weapons to Ukraine were misinterpreted. Mateusz Morawiecki’s “words were interpreted in the worst way possible... In my opinion, the prime minister meant that we won’t be transferring to Ukraine the new weaponry that we’re currently buying as we modernise the Polish army,” Duda told TVN24 television.

Duda said that Morawiecki meant that Poland would not be sending new weapons that they are buying to modernize the Polish army. Duda said that Poland might transfer weapons from the Polish army to Ukraine, as they have done in the past with post-Soviet weapons. Duda also said that Poland would loosen the weapons they have in stock as they receive new weapons from South Korea and the United States.

The war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine (February 24, 2022) further consolidated the representatives of all political parties and forces of the Polish state and Polish society in full support of Ukraine. In 2022 Poland proved to be Ukraine’s crucial hinterland not only in the military but also in the civilian sense. Since the very beginning of the Russian war, Poland has been among the countries providing Ukraine with military equipment, including Polish-manufactured and extremely effective Piorun MANPADs, various types of ammunition, rifles, mortars, and most recently the light one-shot anti-tank grenade launcher, Komar. Due to its geographical location, Poland serves also as a transport hub for deliveries of equipment to Ukraine. Poland also engages politically, trying to widen external military assistance to Ukraine at the common NATO level.

After the Russian invasion in February 2022, any person hoping to enter Poland from Ukraine was allowed to enter. Small pets can enter without restrictions. Dogs and cats should have a microchip and vaccination, but officials can waive this requirement at the border. In Poland, the Government (not UNHCR) is responsible for processing international protection claims, recognizing someone as a refugee, and facilitating their integration.

As of 16 March 2022, an estimated 1.9 million Ukrainian refugees had crossed the border with Poland, the Polish Border Guard has reported. That requires a lot of effort from the state apparatus and from society. The future of these people depends very much on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Some of them are joining their families in other EU countries and consider Poland only as a transfer station. Yet still, bearing in mind the large Ukrainian diaspora that lived in Poland before the war (according to some estimates it was even two million people), one should expect that the vast majority of refugees will stay.

On May 24, 2015, Andrzej Duda was elected President of the Republic of Poland. From the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, he immediately established himself as a true friend of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. Polish president Andrzej Duda said 19 June 2023 that Polish foreign policy's aim is to lead to Russia's strategic defeat in its war against Ukraine as it is also a matter of Poland's security. Taking to the Polish ambassadors attending the annual meeting organised by the Foreign Ministry on Monday, Andrzej Duda said that their narrative is at one with Poland's narrative outside the country.

"Awareness of this fact is extremely important at the present time... the moment of our history, when... the fate of the Polish state, its position, security and importance is at stake in the coming decades, and perhaps centuries,” he said. In Andrzej Duda's opinion, this is the time when the foreign service requires full commitment and activity as Poland's voice must be heard very clearly.

He said that the issue of Russian aggression is the number one topic for Polish foreign policy, because it is also a matter of Poland's security. "Russia sees Poland as a country that will either subordinate to it and be dependent on it, or will be its enemy,” Andrzej Duda warned. „The Russian mentality is an imperial and colonial mentality that does not recognise any arguments except the argument of force. This time must come to an end once and for all,” he said, adding that the spirit of imperialism is deeply rooted in the entire Russian society.

Andrzej Duda said he believes that the only way to change such mentality is to lead Russia to a clear defeat. "Russians need to feel the bitter taste of defeat so that they stop thinking about the world in this way,” he argued. According to Andrzej Duda, Ukraine must win and „any rotten compromise or Russian President Vladimir Putin coming out of this war without loss of face will end only in freezing the conflict and probably an outbreak of even more aggression in the near future.” Therefore, the goal of our foreign policy in this aspect is to lead to a situation in which Russia will suffer a strategic defeat, Ukraine will win, and the spectre of war will be permanently removed from our borders,” he said.

Andrzej Duda also said that Polish diplomacy must treat Belarus under Alexander Lukashenko regime as a state co–responsible for waging Putin's war. "Belarus is not only a country that officially supports Russia, but also the only one that has de facto contributed to hostilities, making its territory available, in a critical phase of the war, for attacking Ukraine, directly from the north,” he said. Therefore, Andrzej Duda added, Poland must strive on the international forum to "impose and increase all possible sanctions on Belarus.”

In the international arena, the Republic of Poland advocated the need for the international community to increase pressure on Russia to immediately end the war against Ukraine and restore the territorial integrity of the state within internationally recognized borders. In this regard, official Warsaw is extremely active in using the existing bilateral and multilateral tools of influence in the international arena in support of Ukraine. The leadership of the Polish state during bilateral meetings, including within the EU and NATO, international organizations constantly emphasize the need to strengthen sanctions against Russia, as well as to provide Ukraine with military, financial and humanitarian assistance.

Poland played a key role in arming Ukraine through its unilateral supply of military equipment such as MiG-29s and Leopard tanks and by allowing foreign allies to store and transport arms over the Polish border into Ukraine. It was the first NATO member to pledge fighter jets to Ukraine in March 2023 and started to make deliveries in early April. Poland is also host to some one million Ukrainian refugees.

Tensions between Warsaw and Kyiv have intensified in September 2023 over Poland's ban on Ukrainian grain imports to protect the interests of its farmers. The Russian invasion of Ukraine had shut down Black Sea shipping lanes that were used before the war. Russia agreed to a deal that allowed maritime exports from Ukraine but withdrew in July 2023. This resulted in the EU becoming a vital transit route and export destination for Ukrainian grain.

The EU agreed to restrict imports to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia in May, with the aim of protecting farmers in those countries who complained the imports had caused a slump in prices on local markets. The measures meant that the products could keep transiting through the five countries but were not sold on their own markets. However, the European Commission said it was ending the import ban, claiming that "the market distortions in the five member states bordering Ukraine have disappeared." Poland, Hungary and Slovakia immediately said they would not comply, while Ukraine said it would file a complaint with the World Trade Organization.

Russian troops continued to try to change the situation on the battlefield to their advantage. Russia's goals in the war have not changed. Although aggression was not going the Kremlin's way, Russia still intends to destroy Ukraine in its current shape and occupy its territory. Further signals from Russia indicate that the plans of aggression against Ukraine have not been suspended. The Kremlin's invasion is systematic.

From the very beginning, Russia's war against Ukraine has had its impact on Poland. We are a neighbor of Ukraine, we have a border with Russia, i.e. the aggressor, and also with Belarus, which is falling more and more into the depths of Russian domination. The Polish perspective is clear – if Ukraine is defeated, the Polish eastern border will be very difficult and unstable, and the level of security in the entire region will be significantly weakened.

The nature of the Russian state, the consistently pursued Russian imperialism, the declared and implemented attempt to rebuild the security architecture in Europe - all this indicates that Russia's victory against Ukraine will only be a stage of actions that may also affect NATO countries in the future. Certainly, Russia will not stop its imperial ambitions and will try to rebuild its influence at the expense of e.g. Central European countries. This is also evidenced by the analysis of materials prepared for the needs of Russia's military structures. In August 2022, during a briefing at the Center for Military and Political Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, its director Alexey Podberyozkin argued that the only scenario favorable for Russia was a further escalation of the situation and an expansion of aggressive actions against the West.

After a few months of Russia's war against Ukraine, an analyst with influence on Russian strategy argued for the need for further escalation, pointing out that only such escalation could ensure Russia's defense of its allegedly threatened interests. According to the Russian, choosing a different strategy will sooner or later end with the collapse of Russia and the disintegration of the state. Podbieriozkin's lecture shows that not only Russian political elites, but also military analysts are convinced of the need to escalate the war, as well as to expand the spectrum of hostile actions against the West.

It was in Poland's interest to support the activities of Ukraine and help the attacked state. This is understood not only by the authorities of the Republic of Poland, but also by other countries of NATO's eastern flank, for which support for Ukraine is an obvious need. Russian imperialism must be stopped because it will not stop itself. That is why Volodymyr Zelensky's international activity is of key importance. And it is a clear indication of Poland's leading role in the West's actions for Ukraine.

On 27 June 2023, the law on assistance to Ukrainian citizens in connection with armed conflict was revised and entered into force. It protected the rights of refugees from Ukraine and provided for their access to services. The revised law provided for Ukrainian citizens to stay in the country legally until March 4, 2024, and provided the same protections for spouses without Ukrainian citizenship who had entered the country after the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Children born in Poland to Ukrainian women who fled the war were granted legal status as Ukrainians. The law provided Ukrainians the right to work and free access to health care and education.

A deputy interior minister continued to function as the government plenipotentiary for war refugees from Ukraine until the government changed on December 13. The plenipotentiary was responsible for coordinating activities undertaken by government ministries to assist refugees, as well as for cooperation with local authorities, NGOs, and international organizations. The prime minister’s chancellery included a minister for social integration to coordinate refugee integration until 13 November 2023.

The plight of refugee women from Ukraine who fled to the country during the year heightened challenges in accessing sexual, reproductive, and maternal health care and created a difficult operating environment for civil society service providers. According to civil society and international organizations, refugees from Ukraine who fled to the country typically went to other countries or back to Ukraine to receive reproductive health-care services during the year. On May 16, the Center for Reproductive Rights and eight partner organizations issued a report on gaps and barriers in access to sexual and reproductive health care and gender-based violence support services facing Ukrainian refugees in the country and others.

Polish President Duda responded 29 Octobe 2024 to calls from some Western politicians who say Ukraine should accept the loss of certain territories. "If you are so generous to Russia, why not give a piece of your land? Why should any sovereign country satisfy Russia? On what grounds does Russia deserve something — especially someone else's territory?"