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Macedonia - Climate

North Macedonia is exposed to climate change and natural hazards that pose substantial risks to public safety and public infrastructure. Between 1990 and 2023, flooding events were the most numerous natural hazards and caused the largest damages. Floods and fires are forecasted to become more frequent and extreme as climate change alters temperatures and climate patterns. The country is highly exposed to river floods and urban flood hazards. Potentially damaging and life-threatening floods are likely to occur at least once in the next 10 years. Rainfall patterns, terrain slope, geology, soil, land cover, and earthquakes lead to high risks of landslides. Wildfires are another area of high risk. Climate change and natural hazards are expected to pose greater risks to North Macedonia in the future. The country's natural hazards assessment indicates high risk to river floods, urban floods, landslides, and wildfire.3 Potentially damaging and life-threating river and urban floods are expected to occur at least once in the next 10 years. The area has rainfall patterns, terrain slope, geology, soil, land cover and (potentially) earthquakes that lead to high risk of localized landslides. Over a year, there is more than 50 percent probability of experiencing weather conditions which could support a significant wildfire resulting in property and life loss. While extreme heat has so far been a medium risk, at least one prolonged period of exposure to extreme heat is likely to occur with a probability of more than 25 percent in the next five years. Future temperature increases and changes in rainfall patterns due to climate change could further increase likelihood of natural hazards. Variable climate, combining higher temperatures and extreme weather events, has caused hazards including floods and heat waves. Between 1990 and 2023, flooding events were most numerous (11) and caused the largest damages, totaling USD 644 million. However, the largest impact on the population was caused by forest fires, which affected over one million people. Electricity production generates, with around 60 percent, by far the largest share of GHG emissions in North Macedonia, followed by the transport sector, heating sector and agricultural sector with around 10 percent each. Coal-based energy generation, intensive use of inefficient heating stoves on fuelwood and coal, and a high concentration of pollution in the transport sector create serious issues with air quality and the overall emissions, especially during the winter months. Even though the country increased domestically produced energy by firing some of the older coal and heavy oilbased generation capacities, the crisis also incentivized and sped up private nvestments in Renewable Energy Sources (RES) i.e., Photovoltaics (PVs). According to authorities, in the period from January 2022 to September 2023 there were over 450 MW of newly installed and commissioned capacity from PV out of a total of installed electricity generation capacity of 2,266 MW in the country as of end of 2022, while the issued licenses of total approved capacities exceed multiple times the total amounts approved in years. This contributes to the country’s strategy on decarbonization, increased share of RES in energy generation and consumption, and the overall NDC goals outlined in the strategies. North Macedonia was the first country in the region to adopt a National Energy and Climate plan outlining the path to achieving goals set for 2030. In the enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted in 2021 the government committed to reduce GHG emissions by more than 50 percent by 2030 compared to 1990. Under the European Green Deal, as a Western Balkan Contracting Party of the Energy Community, North Macedonia committed to work towards the 2050 climate neutrality target, all while reaching today’s GDP per capita levels of neighboring EU countries by 2040.